The recent rebasing of Nigeria’s GDP by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has confirmed real estate as the third largest sector.
Analysts say that better data capturing of real estate services and rising urbanisation are top reasons for the sector’s jump from fifth to third largest contributor to the nation’s GDP.
Other reasons for that jump, which enabled the sector to surpass traditional growth sectors like oil and gas, include a more accurate reflection of the sector’s contribution to the economy, estimation of property values, and increased formalisation in housing activities.
The NBS revealed that the rebasing exercise involved updating base years and incorporating new data, showing that real estate’s actual output was previously underestimated.
The Bureau noted that the exercise also revealed a shift in the country’s economy, with real estate now playing a more prominent role compared to sectors like oil and gas, which had previously held a dominant position, adding, “the exercise not only revealed the sector’s growth but also highlighted its potential for further expansion, especially with continued urbanization and a growing population.”
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It explained that formalisation of housing activities, such as the registration of properties and the adoption of formal building practices, contributed to a clearer picture of the sector’s economic contribution, pointing out that there were more robust data collection methods, leading to accurate representation of real estate activities, including rentals, brokerage, and land valuation.
In monetary terms, real estate recorded a staggering jump of over N25 trillion between the old and rebased figures for 2023. The revised data shows that the sector’s contribution to GDP surged from N10.5 trillion in 2023 (pre-rebasing) to N30.7 trillion after the rebasing and further climbed to N41.3 trillion in 2024, positioning it just behind trade and crop production.
Trade overtook crop production to become Nigeria’s largest economic sector, with a rebased contribution of N68 trillion in 2024, up from N55.3 trillion in 2023. Crop production, which previously led the rankings, followed closely with N61.9 trillion in 2024 after rebasing.
Overall, Nigeria’s GDP for 2024 was rebased to N372.8 trillion, a rise in naira terms from the N229.9 trillion earlier reported. The rebasing reflects changes in price structure, sectoral classification, and broader inclusion of emerging segments of the economy.
Real estate industry players have hailed the rebasing exercise and the sector’s new position in the economy.
Odunayo Ojo, chief executive of UPDC Plc, told BusinessDay that in order to understand what made this new position possible, it is important to know what happened before and during the rebasing.
He affirmed that there was a reclassification of some of the contributors to the economy, noting that there was an introduction of other components that were not in the basket originally.
“The GDP rebasing has offered a clearer picture of the country’s evolving economic landscape, with real estate now at the forefront as a major player,” he said, stressing that real estate has always been one of the top five or six sectors.
“For the sector to be growing, it means that players in the industry are doing a lot. The likes of UPDC are contributing their quota to the growth of the sector. Some other players are also doing their part.
“Again, there have been policy interventions on the part of the government that are helping the sector to grow and sustain it into the future,” he said.
In addition to Ojo’s submission, population growth, urbanisation, and rising middle class are also fuelling expansion of the sector. With Nigeria’s population expected to hit 400 million by 2050, demand for housing, especially luxury apartments in major cities, is skyrocketing.
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A close look at the rebasing exercise shows that besides real estate, other service-driven sectors also saw their rankings improve dramatically. These include professional, scientific and technical services, which rose from N5.6 trillion to N8.9 trillion in 2023 and rose further to N10.9 trillion in 2024.
Public administration nearly tripled in value from N3.5 trillion in 2023 (old series) to N10 trillion in 2024 (revised). Livestock, typically part of the agriculture sector, saw its contribution rise to N24.8 trillion in 2024 from just N2.7 trillion previously reported in 2023.
These shifts, analysts say, suggest a growing recognition of previously underreported sectors, likely due to better data capture, methodology changes, and simpler breakdowns of economic activities.
