Have you wondered what became of the promise earlier this year to conduct a national census in 2025? You are not alone. Nine months into the year, Nigerians are still in the dark. Even senior government officials have voiced frustration at the absence of credible data for national planning; this is a vacuum caused by nearly two decades without a headcount.
In January, when the Chairman of the National Population Commission (NPC) appeared before the National Assembly to defend the Commission’s budget, senators were emphatic. They demanded that Nigeria must conduct a nationwide census this year. Senator Diket Plang of Plateau State captured the sentiments on that day: “I feel very bad that we are still living on estimated population figures. I also feel bad that we are still postulating and relying on data supplied by foreign bodies, which is more or less demeaning us among the comity of nations. We want to know our population. Nigeria should be counted this year.”
That demand is hardly new. The NPC had plans to conduct a census in 2022 under former and recently deceased President Muhammadu Buhari, but he shelved it, citing its proximity to the 2023 elections. The exercise was left to be organised by his successor. Now, with 2025 already slipping away, the reality is that if it is not done this year, 2026 may also be written off as “too close” to the 2027 general elections.
In April, President Bola Tinubu appeared to offer some hope by inaugurating a high-level committee on the “the forthcoming national population and housing census.” He rightly noted that a census is “crucial for national development, accurate planning, and effective decision-making in healthcare, education, security, and economic planning.” But optimism has since dimmed. As of 7th of September 2025, no official date has been confirmed, no budgetary commitment secured, and no presidential approval granted. The country has clearly missed its window for 2025.
Nigeria’s fourth and last census was in 2006. It recorded an approximate population of 140.4 million people, of which 71.3 million were males and 69.0 million were females. Since then, every figure has been a projection. Agencies such as the United Nations Population Fund, (UNFPA), Worldometer, DataReportal and World Population Review now estimate Nigeria’s population at about 237.5 million in March 2025. But these are mere projections with a very slim possibility of accuracy. The question lingers: when will Nigeria finally count itself, with technology-driven methods accepted by the majority?
The need is urgent. Accurate census data underpins governance, planning, and resource allocation. It guides where schools and hospitals are built, how health and education budgets are allocated, and which communities receive targeted support. Without it, policies are based on assumptions, resources are misallocated, and vulnerable populations are left behind.
Through time and history, Nigeria’s census has been plagued by controversy. Accusations of inflated figures for political advantage are common, with numbers wielded as bargaining chips for federal allocations, representation, and even the creation of states and local governments. Yet a credible census is not merely about sharing the “national cake.” It is about knowing who we are, where we live, and what we need to plan for the future. Without it, resources may be mis-allocated, essential programmes may not reach intended beneficiaries, and a country cannot properly plan for its future or assess its economic and social landscape. Also, accurate census data is critical for economic assessments and for developing policies that support the nation’s overall economic well-being.
Countries that take census seriously show what is possible. Denmark, Finland, Norway, Sweden, Germany, and others have modernised their headcounts through register-based systems — integrating housing, employment, and population data for efficiency and accuracy. In Africa, nations like Ghana, Kenya, Benin, and Lesotho have embraced digital censuses, using satellite imagery, geo-referenced data, and mobile devices to improve accuracy and speed. These innovations demonstrate that with political will, transparency, and technology, credible headcounts are achievable.
Nigeria’s hurdles are well known, including insecurity in several regions, inadequate funding, and political interference. Each election cycle deepens the suspicion that census figures will be weaponised for electoral advantage. Without strong leadership and non-partisan commitment, the process risks yet another postponement. But delay comes at a cost. In the absence of accurate data, Nigeria cannot assess its economic landscape, measure poverty effectively, or plan for urbanisation. Every year loss deepens inequality and weakens development outcomes. As experts have long warned, a country that cannot count its people cannot plan for its people.
For Nigeria, the path forward is clear. The Federal Government must set a fixed date, allocate funding, and insulate the process from political manipulation. The census must leverage technology such as digital devices, satellite mapping, and secure data platforms through which results that citizens can trust can be delivered. Most importantly, the government must communicate transparently to rebuild public confidence.
The stakes are high. With a population already projected at nearly 240 million, Nigeria cannot continue to drift on borrowed estimates. A credible census is not a luxury. It is the foundation of national development, the bedrock of sound governance, and the first step in building a future that is planned rather than improvised. The question now is not whether Nigeria needs a census; rather, it is whether our leaders have the will to deliver on their promise for a genuine head count.
