The World Bank revised China’s 2025 GDP forecast upward due to strong manufacturing and exports, signalling robust economic resilience. Meanwhile, major domestic developments in Nigeria propelled market activity, including the nation’s placement on the FTSE Russell Frontier Market Watch List following improvements in FX liquidity.
China’s GDP forecast receives an upward revision
The World Bank revised its forecast for China’s 2025 GDP growth to 4.80 percent, an increase from the 4.00 percent projection made in April 2025. The projection for 2026 was also revised upward to 4.20 percent from the previous 4.00 percent estimate.
This upward adjustment is primarily driven by stronger-than-expected economic resilience, specifically robust export performance and sustained manufacturing output. China’s manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) improved for the third consecutive month, reaching 49.80 as of September, nearing the 50-point threshold for recovery.
“ Overall, this revised outlook suggests China is capable of sustaining higher growth than previously anticipated, potentially bolstering confidence among foreign investors,” analysts at Meristem said in its weekly report.
OPEC+ approves modest oil production increase
Eight members of OPEC+ approved an increase in their oil production to 137,000 barrels per day, effective November 2025. This production adjustment from previous voluntary cuts is a bid to address declining global oil inventories and regain market share lost to non-OPEC producers.
They are making only a limited adjustment to supply. This cautious move is meant to avoid causing prices to fall sharply.
“This move is expected to ease fuel costs across various sectors, supporting economic activity in oil-importing regions. However, the modest 137,000 bpd increase, coupled with strong non-OPEC output, raises the likelihood that near-term oil prices will remain range-bound, potentially trading between $65 and $70/barrel, or lower.” Meristem analysts said.
Central Bank of Kenya cuts benchmark lending rate
The Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) reduced its benchmark lending rate by 25 basis points, moving it from 9.50 percent to 9.25 percent.
This decision marks the eighth consecutive rate cut and reflects the bank’s confidence in the economy’s stability.
Inflation remains well-anchored within the target range of 2.5 percent to 7.5 percent, even after September’s consumer inflation rate slightly rose to 4.6 percent year-over-year from 4.5 percent.
Sub-Saharan Africa growth projection raised
The World Bank raised its 2025 GDP growth projection for Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) to 3.8 percent from 3.5 percent.
This optimistic revision is driven by improved price stability and economic recovery across the region, with inflation dropping to single digits in most countries. Factors contributing to this upgrade include stronger agricultural production, reduced inflation, better fiscal management in key nations (such as Nigeria, Ethiopia, and Côte d’Ivoire), stabilized exchange rates, and recovering foreign investment. This development signals growing investor confidence and points toward potential rises in household incomes and enhanced business activity.
Nigeria is placed on the FTSE Russell Frontier Market watch list
FTSE Russell moved Nigeria out of the “Unclassified” category and placed it on the Watch List for a potential upgrade to Frontier Market status.
This follows recent government reforms that have improved FX liquidity, with market participants reporting no significant delays in foreign investors’ capital repatriation and FX transactions.
This shift repositions Nigeria on the investment radar for global funds that benchmark against the FTSE Frontier Market Index.
“The move is anticipated to translate into potentially significant inflows of Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI) over the next year, which will directly support the Nigerian Naira (NGN) by increasing dollar supply and sustaining FX market stability,” analysts have said.
Nigeria Announces Eurobond and Sukuk Issuance
Nigeria is set to issue a $2.80 billion Eurobond and sukuk in the fourth quarter of 2025. This issuance aims to finance the nation’s widening 2025 fiscal deficit and refinance maturing debt.
The plan details $1.23 billion in fresh borrowing and $1.2 billion dedicated to refinancing a 2018 Eurobond maturing in November, alongside a $0.50 billion sukuk. The sukuk specifically targets GCC investors, potentially lowering borrowing costs.
Nigerian oil rig count signals sector revival
Nigeria’s active oil rig count recorded a substantial 66 percent rise in August 2025. This increase is seen as a crucial inflection point resulting from decisive government reforms, notably the strategic implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2021 and the Upstream Petroleum Operations Cost Efficiency Incentives Order (2025).
These policies have addressed policy uncertainty and high operational risk, thereby restoring investor confidence. This upstream revival promises to significantly boost oil revenue and increase dollar inflows, which will strengthen the Naira and reduce foreign exchange volatility.
Nigerian equities market extends bullish run
The Nigerian Equities Market sustained its positive streak for the fifth consecutive week. The NGX-All Share Index (ASI) gained +2.73% week-on-week, pushing the year-to-date gains to +42.81.
The sectors that led this performance were the NGXIndustry with a 4.23 percent growth this week, and the NGX-Insurance with 3.69 percent. The banks index was the sole index that slipped, declining by 0.08 percent.
Fixed Income markets maintain bullish tone
The bond market was strong this week, supported by ample system liquidity and sustained demand from local investors.
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) conducted two OMO auctions, attracting strong demand with total subscriptions reaching N8.56 trillion.
Also average yields on Treasury bills declined to 17.36 percent from 17.93 percent the previous week. This also extended to the bond market, where average yields moderated to 15.98 percent from 16.27 percent.
