The population of Nigeria is 99.2 million larger than Ethiopia’s 128.7 million people. Both countries account for 24 percent of Africa’s population, according to 2023 data from the World Bank.
They are blessed with fertile land and long-term markets for global wheat imports owing to rapid population growth and low production.
However, today, the difference between the countries is that Ethiopia has transformed from a net importer of wheat to a regional breadbasket that grows enough to export to its neighbours.
Nigeria continues to increase its wheat imports as it can barely grow enough for its 227.9 million people.
Ethiopia’s remarkable wheat production boom, fuelled by investments in research, offers valuable lessons for Nigeria as it seeks to boost its output and reduce reliance on imports.
“We must learn from other African countries like Ethiopia and Senegal to scale our wheat production,” said Musa Shehu, national president of the Wheat Farmers Association of Nigeria, in a 2024 interview with BusinessDay.
“We must change our approach to implementation to have real results,” Shehu noted.
Wheat is typically a temperate crop, which could explain why much of it was traditionally not produced in Africa in large volumes and more so, with lower yields.
However, in Ethiopia, scientists developed improved and heat-tolerant varieties that changed the country’s narrative in wheat production.
Its farmers improved access to quality wheat seeds and adoption of good agronomic practices, as well as large-scale use of irrigation and mechanisation, moved Ethiopia’s average yield per hectare from 2 tons to 3.2 tons, according to data from the Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO).
While there are conflicting data on actual production, all sources acknowledged a substantial increase in production, even if they differ on exact figures.
Data from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and FAO shows that Ethiopia’s wheat output rose from 4.8 million tons in 2017/2018 to 5.8 million tons in 2022/2023, marking a 20 percent increase.
Government data from Ethiopia’s Agricultural Ministry shows an even steeper rise, with domestic production reaching 15.1 million tons in 2022/2023, indicating a 215 percent rise.
The data, so far, show that the East African country’s strategy of developing improved wheat seed varieties and ensuring farmers have access to them is already paying off.
Nigeria lags behind
Nigeria is trying to become reliant on local wheat production. However, corruption and rising insecurity in the northern part of the country, where the grains are largely grown, have hindered these efforts.
Nigeria, like Ethiopia, has made investments in boosting local wheat production, including $160 million from the African Development Bank in 2022; however, substantial gains in the production of the grain are yet to be recorded.
Despite being a major market for a species of wheat known as ‘hard red winter’, the country only produces 36,943.80MT, according to a 2021 survey conducted by the National Bureau of Statistics.
This shows a decline of 23 percent from 60,000 tonnes as captured in the Agriculture Promotion Policy’s strategy document of 2016.
In 2016, demand was put at 4.7 million tonnes, and nine years later, production has declined while demand has increased.
Wheat production in Africa’s most populous nation has remained relatively low as a lack of modern agronomic practices, unavailability of improved seeds, and high rate of insecurity across major wheat-growing states continue to hamper the production of the commodity.
“Our inability to boost wheat production is a result of insecurity,” said AfricanFarmer Mogaji, a food security expert and farmer.
“Marte local government in Borno State used to be the country’s hub in wheat production but rising insecurity has greatly impacted farming activities in the area,” he added.
Farmers added that corruption and lack of close supervision of intervention funds for wheat development had also hampered production.
Africa’s most populous nation has spent billions of naira yearly on wheat development but production is yet to scale.
Shehu, president of the Wheat Farmers Association of Nigeria, said the domestic wheat production has suffered from insecurity, poor implementation of interventions for farmers, and the perception that the country cannot competitively produce wheat.
He said that most interventions in the sector to boost local production have been highly politicized and poorly implemented.
He noted that it is one of the reasons Nigeria is unable to produce meaningful results for its local production campaign.
Mutairu Mamudu, a wheat farmer in Jigawa State, said most of the funds for wheat development allocated by the federal government did not get to the farmers.
He said, “Most of that money was diverted into personal pockets, and that is why production was not increasing as farmers were not getting the support they needed.
“I have been cultivating wheat since 2015 but I never got any input from the government until last year and this year. So, what happened to all the previous money for intervention in wheat production?” he asked.
Derivatives of wheat, such as noodles, pasta, semolina, wheat meal, bread, and flour-based confectioneries, are culinary delights for millions of Nigerians, consumed in such large quantities that make wheat the country’s largest food import.
The country spent a whopping N265.1 billion on wheat importation in the first three months of 2025
