Nigeria’s government is preoccupied. Policymakers are drafting reforms, politicians are negotiating power, and institutions are working to stabilize an economy hit by inflation, insecurity, and external shocks.
Yet, amidst these challenges, there are signs of progress, inflation has declined for two consecutive months, GDP growth is inching up, foreign investment is slowly returning, and fiscal policies are tightening leakages.
But beyond economic indicators, another crisis unfolds, predictable yet largely ignored until disaster strikes. From May to November, floods have ravaged the south, while blistering heat waves cripple the north.
Each year, the country scrambles for relief, pledges reforms, and then moves on until the cycle repeats with the next rainy season.
A Recurring Disaster, A Mounting Cost
The numbers reveal a grim reality. In 2022, floods inflicted an estimated ₦700 billion in losses on Nigeria’s agricultural sector alone. More than 8.4 million tonnes of crops were destroyed, livestock losses surpassed ₦93 billion, and damage to the fish industry was around ₦100 billion.
Over 1.4 million people were displaced, and at least 600 lives were lost. Yet, the response remains reactive, with plans materializing only when waters rise.
Meanwhile, in the north, temperatures frequently exceed 33°C, depleting water sources and rendering farmland barren. Farmers struggle to sustain livestock, and desertification continues to swallow arable land. The result? More migration south, increased pressure on scarce resources, and worsening economic instability.
Between 2020 and 2024, Nigeria has lost billions to climate-related disasters. Estimates suggest that over $100 billion is lost annually due to climate change, affecting everything from agriculture to infrastructure and public health.
The Economic and Social Fallout
In 2022, Chukwumerije Okereke, Director of the Centre for Climate Change and Development at Alex Ekwueme Federal University, Ebonyi State, warned that climate change was already costing Nigeria about $100 billion per year.
Without effective mitigation efforts, these losses could escalate to $460 billion annually by 2050, representing a significant portion of the nation’s GDP.
The economic consequences are clear. Food prices will surge as agricultural yields decline. Infrastructure damage will strain public finances. Climate-induced migration will intensify competition for resources, increasing social tensions and security risks.
Scientists have long cautioned that global temperatures have risen by 1.1°C since 1880, with projections indicating an increase of 1.5°C by 2050.
By the end of the century, it could be 4°C higher. For Nigeria, this means prolonged droughts in the north, worsening food shortages, more destructive floods in the south, and escalating conflicts over land and water.
“We are already seeing the devastating impact of climate change, but Nigeria is still treating it as a distant problem,” says Waziri Adio, former Executive Secretary of the Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative.
“This is not just an environmental concern; it is an economic and security crisis.”
Time for Action, Not Rhetoric
Each year, policymakers introduce new reforms, economic plans, and political strategies.
Yet, climate action remains an afterthought. Smarter water management, flood defenses, and investments in drought-resistant farming techniques are not luxuries; they are essential to economic survival.
The climate crisis is no longer a distant threat. It is reshaping Nigeria’s economy, displacing its people, and testing the resilience of its institutions.
The question is no longer whether Nigeria will suffer from climate change but whether it will act before the costs become irreversible.
