Primaries chaos, more defections, investor’s position for earnings season

POLITICS
Political Aspirants reject primaries result
Free and fair elections are more or less a mirage in Nigeria and the weekend primary elections in Lagos State in APC and PDP won’t be any different. Political aspirants in the race for public office are expected to be fuming over the results of the primaries and threatening legal action. In the end, very little has ever come out of the negative reactions to the results.
More Defections to follow after unhappy end to primary elections
Unhappy politicians who couldn’t secure the tickets of their party will likely defect to other political party to secure the tickets. Rarely do Nigerian politicians who compete for party nomination throw their arms around their party candidate after losing the fight.
Election spending to enter top gear
Election spending in Nigeria is expected to hit top gear after the completion of primary elections in majority of the states in the country. Campaign rallies are expected to be more visible in the coming week after some more primary elections are successfully completed in the country.
ECONOMY & MARKETS
Government may fail to meet union minimum wage hike demand
Organised unions declared a seven day strike last Wednesday to show government it means business on the wage hike demand from N18,000 to around N66,000. However, the government is expected to continue to tell labour unions that it will not be able to afford the new wage demand of the unions. We expect the government to offer significantly less to the unions which will be rejected. The unions will insist that the FG should use some of the money recovered from loots to fund the wage hike. We expect another impasse in the coming week.
Investors take position for earnings season
Investors are expected to start taking positions in the stock market in anticipation of earnings reports by top companies listed in the Nigerian Stock Exchange. The stock market is expected to be more volatile this week as economic uncertainty from the strike action by the unions continues to have a negative impact on stock price performance.
Naira to benefit from continued oil price rally
Political and economic uncertainty negatively affected naira in the past week but the continued rally in oil prices is expected to lead to an accretion of the foreign external reserves which will strengthen Naira as investors become more confident in the local currency. The MPC decision to maintain a tight monetary policy will also help the Naira. Other emerging markets may continue to see their currencies decline after United States raised interest rates for the 3rd time this year.
EMEKA UCHEAGA