Nigeria’s main opposition party, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), risks extinction, losing more relevance, while further becoming an appendage of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) if the party leaders continue to allow external forces to weaken its structures, political analysts have warned.
Since losing power in 2015, the PDP has struggled to define its role as an opposition party. The 2023 general election further exposed the party’s deep-seated internal divisions, leaving it unable to mount a strong challenge to the APC.
While the crisis which weaken the party’s chances in the last general election has festered till now, it appears that members of PDP nationwide should prepare for the worst in 2027, because the situation has worsened to a point that the PDP may not present a presidential candidate in 2027 or rather, the party could field a weak candidate that would obviously work in favour for the candidate of the ruling party.
For now, it is clear that the PDP is not interested in asserting itself as a formidable opposition force, the party appears hesitant to confront the government, with the implication of further sliding and losing more of its controlled states to APC in 2027.
We are seeing signs of that already, amid the rumour in recent months that some PDP governors have endorsed President Bola Tinubu for a second term.
This is with current allegation that part of the NWC of the party is controlled by a former governor now a minister, so when the PDP governors’ Forum, led by Bala Mohammed, last week announced the rejection of any coalition or merger efforts aimed at producing a consensus presidential candidate to challenge incumbent President Tinubu in 2027, many observers where not totally surprised.
But many analysts said that the PDP’s governors are failing to admit the reality that the party is fading and could not compete, due to their inability to resolve lingering internal wrangling and imposters within.
Thus, the party was urged to wake up and face the reality that it could not defeat the candidate of the APC and incumbent President.
“You see, it’s laughable for PDP to think that their solo candidate can win APC come 2027. They are wallowing in fantasies, they refused to acknowledge the fact that Peter Obi breaking away from PDP caused them a lot in the last election, now they are drifting towards that part again by not welcoming a coalition, Ernest Ogwu, lawyer and political analyst, told BusinessDay.
The PDP’s inability to organise a coherent opposition movement has also been blamed for allowing the APC to govern without serious political scrutiny, in as such, stakeholders say they would not be surprise if at the end of the day, the PDP does not present a serious presidential candidate in 2027 to rival President Tinubu, since many of its leaders are now in bed with APC.
“The insincerity of the leaders of the party is responsible for the current state of the PDP; democratic systems thrive on active and engaged opposition parties that challenge the ruling government through policy debates and mobilisation.
But the party leaders would not challenge APC because they are working with Wike,” Issac Utu, political pundit, said.
PDP can’t unseat Tinubu without coalition
On March 20, the 2023 PDP’s presidential candidates Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, and Nasir El-Rufai, former Kaduna State governor, announced the creation of a coalition aimed at defeating President Tinubu in the 2027 election.
The coming together of the aggrieved members of the ruling APC, elements from the PDP, members of the Social Democratic Party (SDP), as well as the Labour Party was similar to what was witnessed in 2013, which subsequently metamorphosed into the APC.
The move has continued to generate ongoing debates about the implication of the opposition closing ranks, drawing mixed reactions from political figures and stakeholders.
But the Atiku’s led coalition has been welcomed by many political observers across the country, especially among political actors who said that it was the right way to go, if the opposition would have any chance of challenging President Tinubu with incumbency power.
So, the statement of the PDP’s governors that they would not join the coalition came as a surprise, especially to those who had hoped that the party would embrace the coalition.
“Noting the nationwide speculations about possible merger of political parties, groups and/or associations, the Forum resolved that the PDP will not join any coalition or merger.
“However, the PDP as a major opposition party welcomes any party, persons or groups that are willing to join it with a view to wresting power and enthroning good leadership in 2027,” Mohammed the head of PDP governors’ forum stated.
But political analysts have dismissed the PDP governor’s position, saying that it would be suicidal for the party not to join the coalition, because ordinarily the PDP had lost its connection with the electorates for many years back and was weakened severely by years of internal dispute.
“It’s inability to play the opposition politics since its defeat in 2015 had done more harm than good to the sustenance of its relevance in the polity,” Kunle Okunade, political analyst said.
“In the case of perception, many Nigerians seem not to see PDP as a serious party that could make any difference in the country having governed the country for 16years without any substantial achievements.”
He further stated that those still in the PDP, including the governors, there is no strong gladiator who could stand the political stature and prowess of the current APC and President Tinubu.
However, Ajibola Oduwole, lawyer and political analyst, said it’s within the rights of the PDP governors to determine whether their party will be part of any opposition coalition.
“Don’t forget that governors are major stakeholders in any political equation and most times, when it comes to party politics, they almost always have their way,” Oduwole said.
He noted that Nigerians should wait and see what PDP intends to do, as regards a presidential candidate, stating that some PDP governors are already openly showing support to President Tinubu, but that nothing is conclusive at this point, with election two years away.
Can opposition coalition succeed against Tinubu?
With talks to birth a coalition by opposition figures ahead of the 2027 general election at an advanced stage, fears have emerged judging from experience in the past that such a plan could be derailed by competing egos and personal ambition.
Unconfirmed reports have hinted that the political ambition of some individuals and zoning disputes are contending issues that leaders have to resolve in the early stage.
Similarly, part of the unresolved issues in the coalition talk has been the platform to use that is acceptable. Many political leaders involved in the coalition talk are scepticisms about the SDP’s capacity to seriously challenge a well-funded ruling party and are demanding that rather the LP be used.
Coalitions allow individuals or parties to collaborate without dismantling their structures and key players likely recognise the challenges of a merger, given the current state of their parties.
However, analysts say the leaders have to do more if they want to unseat President Tinubu in 2027.
“Even with the coalition if it succeeds, it is not clear or certain they could unseat Tinubu, because those who are trying to form the coalition are not necessarily strategic enough to divide the APC and woo the majority and valuable APC actors into their fold. Although, only time will tell as the 2027 race is still far,” Okunade added.
Similarly, Oduwole further stated that the lack of unity and internal conflict in opposition parties may affect the success of the coalition.
Umoh Lucky, politician, said Nigerians are already tired of the present administration and would vote the party out if the election is free and fair.
“Of course, the coalition can succeed, people are looking for alternatives, but these guys know they are not popular and that is why they would not allow free and fair elections. But they would meet their match them this time”, he said
PDP governors playing spoiler game
Reacting to the PDP governors’ statement not to join the coalition, one of its leaders of the coalition, Salihu Lukman, claimed that governors recognise the party is beyond repair, stating that Nigerians no longer see it as a viable alternative since the ruling APC has effectively taken over its core values.
The group also said the PDP governors were ‘wittingly or unwittingly playing Asiwaju’s spoiler game.’
Responding on behalf of the coalition’s national secretariat, Lukman emphasised that the coalition is crucial for restoring the integrity of political institutions, particularly political parties, in maintaining and fostering healthy political competition in the country.
He stated, “The meeting of the PDP Governors Forum on Monday, April 14, 2025, declared its opposition to the initiative to form a broad-based coalition of opposition political parties, politicians and other groups.
“The coalition is a viable option to not only defeat the APC and President Bola Tinubu, but also to rescue our democracy from imminent collapse. Rescuing Nigerian democracy, which is about rebuilding trust between citizens and politicians, is the main objective of the coalition.
“However, the coalition has also become necessary if the integrity of political institutions, especially political parties in upholding and promoting political competition in the country is to be restored. And nothing represents the sad reality of the destruction of our democracy than the party that ruled Nigeria for 16 years and arrogantly boasted of ruling for 60 years, the PDP.
“The mere fact that the NEC meeting of the party has not been held for two years and no Nigerian can confidently tell who is really in charge of the party is evidence of this collapse. This should be the concern of leaders of the party, including its governors.
“Unfortunately, all we have seen of the PDP Governors is the flagrant usurpation of the powers assigned to the organs of the party. This is wrong. It is also a clear demonstration that if left alone, the PDP Governors will only continue the path of destroying democratic institutions in the country.
“As it is, all patriotic Nigerians who are committed to rescuing Nigerian democracy should recognise that the challenge facing us as a nation is beyond the romantic affiliation to so-called political parties such as the PDP, with many of its leaders operating as Trojan horses to the APC and President Tinubu’s government.
“It makes no sense to invest energy and resources in a party whose leaders are either appointees of the APC Government or undercover supporters. Otherwise, how can anyone justify the way PDP and its leaders are mismanaging themselves and practically putting themselves on the path of self-destruction and political irrelevance.”
The coalition leader accused PDP member and FCT Minister Nyesom Wike of being untouchable, not due to his work in the FCT, but because he has prevented the PDP from fielding a presidential candidate to challenge Tinubu in 2027.
