South Africa’s African National Congress (ANC) is on track to win a reduced majority in the country’s national election, according to a projection from a leading think-tank, as support for the party led by president Cyril Ramaphosa has fallen.
A 57 per cent projection by South Africa’s Council for Scientific and Industrial Research think-tank would represent a decline of five percentage points for the ANC compared with the previous national poll in 2014.
The CSIR has accurately projected results at previous elections in South Africa.
With about a quarter of voting districts counted by Thursday morning, the ANC took an early lead in the count following Wednesday’s poll which is likely to be
South Africa’s most competitive election since the dawn of democracy in 1994.
Official results so far suggest they have just over 54 per cent of the vote. At stake is what many see as a mandate for Mr Ramaphosa to carry out politically difficult reforms to the economy and fight corruption after a decade of misrule in the ANC under Jacob Zuma, the former president.
The trade unionist turned tycoon replaced Mr Zuma, who was beset by graft scandals, last year.
During his first year in office Mr Ramaphosa has faced stiff resistance from allies of the former president, who retain senior posts in the ANC.
They also head the party’s list of parliamentary candidates. Business had hoped for a majority of about 60 per cent for the ANC in the belief that it would help Mr Ramaphosa push through reforms.
Political analysts and ANC veterans have been sceptical that the size of the party’s majority will make much difference to infighting over Mr Ramaphosa’s pledge to end an “era of impunity”.
The CSIR projected that South Africa’s main opposition Democratic Alliance would win 21 per cent of the vote, a slight gain on the 2014 polls.
The Economic Freedom Fighters, a radical ANC breakaway group expected to make large gains in the election, could poll about 10 per cent, the think-tank said.
This compares with about 6 per cent in previous elections. Voters cast ballots to elect the national parliament, which picks the president, and provincial legislatures.
A tight race for Gauteng, the country’s most populous and economically critical province, was too close to call on Thursday.
The CSIR also projected a drop in turnout to below 70 per cent, down from 74 per cent in 2014. South Africa’s independent election commission has said it could issue the official result by Saturday.
