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With Ahmed Makarfi, a former governor of Kaduna State and immediate past national chairman of the People’s Democracy Party (PDP), joining the fray for the party’s ticket for the 2019 presidential election, pundits say that consideration may naturally tilt towards him.
The narrative is that Makarfi’s interest in the PDP’s ticket may have placed a moral burden on the leadership of the party that emotionally may want to, in the spirit of “one-good-turn-deserves-another” lean in favour of the Kaduna-born politician, for fighting a dogged fight against Ali Modu Sheriff.
Those who hug this view say that without the efforts of Makarfi, PDP may not have been in one piece in the first place, let alone thinking about 2019 general election.
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Recently also, Senator Rabiu Kwankwaso, a chieftain of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and former governor of Kano State, said that for the PDP to defeat President Muhammadu Buhari in the 2019 presidential election, it must pick someone from Kano, Katsina or Kaduna state.
“PDP needs someone from the ‘3K states’ Kano, Katsina and Kaduna to win the next election. That’s where the votes are. It would be difficult to win if they pick someone from any other zone,” Kwankwaso said.
Kwankwaso’s thinking may have stemmed from the 2015 figures of registered voters posted from the North West states of Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto and Zamfara. Out of a total figure of 68,833,476, about 17,620,436, representing 25.6 percent, came from North West.
It was Kwankwaso’s view that because the three states of Kano, Katsina and Kaduna usually record the highest voter turnout, APC would then not sweep the votes en bloc if the PDP’s candidate should come from that axis. President Buhari, who is likely to emerge as the APC standard bearer, comes from Katsina State.
Going by his analysis, Atiku Abubakar, a former vice president and frontline contender for the PDP ticket may not be in the reckoning as he hails from Adamawa State, which, combined with other North East states of Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Taraba and Yobe, had a total registered figure of 9,107,861 or 13.2 percent in 2015.
Analysts, however, believe that Atiku remains the best bet for the PDP in the present circumstance despite all odds.
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Anthony Nwankwere, a head of department of Political Science in one of the institutions of higher learning in the country, said that other contenders have not got the national appeal to win a presidential election.
“I have read and listened to various arguments on the propriety or otherwise of Alhaji Atiku Abubakar’s aspiration; some of them appear quite reasonable but a whole lot pander to sheer sentiment. Many people today would tell you that Atiku is this and that, but they speak based on rumours; no substance. They cannot substantiate their claims. But I will tell you one thing- of all the people masquerading about, seeking PDP ticket, it is only Atiku that has all it takes to shake the APC,” Nwankwere said.
According to him, “If PDP gets a strong candidate that appeals to Nigerians across the geo-political zones, APC will be in trouble, particularly with the increasing killings in the North Central which may also elicit protest votes against the ruling party.”
A former media chief and managing director of a defunct media organisation, who craved anonymity said: “I want to shock you. “I have listened to all the discussions going on about the quality of the person who should be the president of Nigeria in 2019. That individual is Atiku Abubakar.
“There are three cardinal reasons why it has to be Atiku. Our beloved country is in a danger of being plunged into a civil war. There is a feeling of discontent all over the place. It will take a man who is very strong and reads the signs of times to pull the country from the nadir into which it has sunken. It can also only be done by a Northerner. Nobody from any other part of the country can possibly say he will take over power from the north at this time; any attempt will only result in bloodshed. So, Atiku fits that bill.”
According to the media chief, “The second reason is that he is very wealthy and would not possibly be interested in stealing when he gets there. The man has seen money and he is using it to touch lives. If he gets there, he can only use the country’s wealth judiciously, giving what he is doing with his personal endowments.
“The third reason is that the man has built bridges across the country. He is a brand and has friends all over the place. I am impressed the way he is taking the issue of restructuring and I believe that he will do well if he is given the opportunity. My analysis is based on my observations.”
His political trajectory since 1999
In 1998, following the decision of the Abdulsalami Abubakar regime to return the country to civil rule, Atiku launched a bid for the governorship of Adamawa State on the platform of the PDP. He won the December 1998 elections, but before he could be sworn in he was picked by Olusegun Obasanjo, who was the presidential candidate of the PDP, as his vice-presidential candidate. The Obasanjo-Atiku ticket eventually won the February 27, 1999 presidential election. They were sworn in May 29, 1999.
Atiku was in office with his boss for eight years, although toward the end of the second tenure, relationship between the duo hit the rocks over their conflicting ambitions. He could not buy into the attempt by his boss to tinker with the constitution to enjoy a third term.
On November 25, 2006 Atiku announced his presidential ambition and was on December 20, 2006 chosen as the presidential candidate of the Action Congress (AC).
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However, when on March 14, 2007, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) released the final list of 24 aspirants for the election slated for April 21st; his name was missing from the ballot. INEC issued a statement stating that Atiku’s name was missing because he was on a list of persons indicted for corruption by a panel set up by the government. The former Vice President dragged INEC to the court on March 16 to challenge his disqualification. The Supreme Court unanimously ruled on April 16 that INEC had no power to disqualify candidates.
Although the ruling afforded him the opportunity to contest the election, Atiku came third behind the PDP candidate, Umaru Yar’Adua and Muhammadu Buhari, then candidate of the ANPP. He rejected the election results and called for its cancellation, describing it as Nigeria’s “worst election ever.”
He was so disappointed at the outcome of the election that he shunned the Yar’Adua’s inauguration, saying that he did not want to “dignify such a hollow ritual with my presence.”
After the 2007 elections, Atiku returned to the PDP. In October 2010, he announced his intention to contest for the Presidency. On November 22, a Committee of Northern Elders selected him as the Northern Consensus Candidate, over Ibrahim Babangida, a former military president; Aliyu Gusau, former national security adviser, and Bukola Saraki, then governor of Kwara State.
In January 2011, Atiku contested for the Presidential ticket of his party alongside President Jonathan and Sarah Jubril and lost the primary.
In August 2013, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) registered two new political parties. One of them was the People’s Democratic Movement (PDM). Reports had it then that the party was Atiku’s back-up plan in case he was unable to fulfil his rumoured presidential ambition on the PDP platform. In a statement Atiku acknowledged that the PDM was founded by his “political associates”, but that he remained a member of the PDP.
On February 2, 2014, restless Atiku dumped the PDP to join APC where he was unable to pick the ticket of the party.
