Several Nigerians showed interest in the results of recent US elections. But there are those who could care less as they believe it doesn’t affect them directly and we have our own fish to fry as a country. As much as we have our issues to deal with, the fact remains that the US largely influences foreign policies, which could either ease or further compound our problems; ergo, the importance of the election results. So, how exactly could a Biden-Harris administration affect Nigeria and Nigerians?
Work and study abroad
The US is dubbed the land of opportunity, little wonder why over 370,000 Nigerians currently reside there, and thousands more aspire to travel there whether for work, study and other reasons. With its “America First” mantra and nationalist stance, the Trump administration however dealt a huge blow to these dreams of many on several occasions. This year alone, it has imposed travel bans and restricted employment/immigration visas for Nigerians and citizens of other “Muslim-majority countries.” The New York Times reports that these moves prevented a bulk of potential immigrants from resettling, finding work or reuniting with their families in the US. Putting it in figures, Forbes states that by 2021, Trump would have reduced legal immigration by 49 percent with his policies.
Biden however plans to increase the number of high skilled visas, including H1-B visas and remove the limits on employment-based visas by country. These are part of a proposed set of immigration reforms that will reverse some of the incumbent administration’s policies which negatively impacted countries like Nigeria, India, China and other labour markets.
Military aid and support
Shortly after President Buhari won his first term in 2015, the Obama-Biden administration pledged to provide military aids in the fight against insurgency in Nigeria. However, they were reluctant to provide certain sophisticated weapons and aircraft to Nigeria due to human rights concerns and the military’s infamous reputation of brutality and incompetence. In fact, in 2017, the administration froze the sale of 12 “Embraer A-29 Super Tucano” light attack aircraft to Nigeria on the same day it was to be approved after the country’s Airforce allegedly bombed civilian targets in Rann, a small town in Borno, killing hundreds of refugees and aid workers.
The Trump administration, on the other hand, approved the $600 million sale of a dozen high-tech aircraft, the same set that was blocked by the previous administration. Deliveries of the aircraft is scheduled to start in 2021. For Trump, the fight against insurgency was more important than any human rights violations the government might have been perpetrating.
In a Biden-led administration, it is believed that the human rights concern he had while he was Vice President will also shape his decisions with regards to providing military and surveillance aids to Nigeria.
Oil and gas revenue
Trump worked closely to protect and maximise the US oil and gas sector, while repeatedly referring to climate change as “an expensive hoax.” Earlier this year, he pressed the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) into slashing its oil production glut as it was dipping global oil prices and crippling the US oil industry. The production cuts not only favoured the US, but Nigeria as well, as crude oil prices began to surge — until COVID-19 took the wheel. But on a not so favourable front, since the shale revolution which significantly increased the US’ capacity to self-produce oil and natural gas, Nigeria has seen a sharp yearly drop in oil exports to the US.
Biden will likely place more emphasis on climate change. He has already laid out a $2 trillion clean energy plan and his commitment get the US back on the Paris Climate Agreement that Trump fought hard to leave.
At a glance, this portends that Biden could further reduce US crude oil imports from Nigeria, which will negatively impact the country’s main revenue source. This is bad news especially against the backdrop that oil prices have continued declining since the global pandemic.
On a different note though, if the Biden administration moves to place more restrictions on the US oil industry, their oil supply would significantly drop and their top importers could go in search of new markets, with Nigeria as an option.
In conclusion, of course, this list not exhaustive as other issues like the US-China Trade war and much more could also affect Nigeria. Also, these are mere projections and the incoming administration may vary their stance along the way, but they have made clear their intention to foster better relationships with Africa.
Fabusiwa is corporate law and finance enthusiast, and an advocate of career development. tayofabusiwa@gmail.com
