By August 2025, Nigeria’s Southeast will have endured four unsettling years under the shadow of the Indigenous People of Biafra’s (IPOB) sit-at-home order. What began as a protest demanding the release of Nnamdi Kanu has, over time, morphed into a weekly paralysis marked by fear, violence, and deepening economic ruin. A recent SBM Intelligence report titled “Four Years of Disruption: Unmasking the Impact of IPOB’s Sit-at-Home Order in Southeast Nigeria” lays bare the multidimensional consequences of this ongoing standoff and the urgent need for a new path forward.
The origins of the sit-at-home order lie in long-standing political grievances, particularly the contentious 2021 re-arrest and detention of IPOB leader Nnamdi Kanu. But while IPOB’s leadership originally positioned the protest as civil resistance, it has since become a vehicle for violence and economic sabotage. The Mondays once intended for peaceful expression of dissent have turned into ritualised fear, enforced not by consensus but by coercion.
As someone who has long observed and analysed Nigeria’s security and political dynamics, I have not been immune to the very atmosphere I seek to understand. My reporting on IPOB has attracted personal scrutiny from Kanu himself, whose YouTube broadcasts to his global followers have, on occasion, veered into incitement. When he singled me out in one such video, lumping my work with that of other journalists he accused of corruption and “evil”, it was not just rhetorical posturing. It became a matter of personal safety. These moments reinforce the report’s central thesis: that fear, rather than belief, is driving compliance with the sit-at-home directive.
According to the SBM Intelligence report, only about 29 percent of Southeast residents express genuine support for the sit-at-home policy. The overwhelming majority comply due to safety concerns, exacerbated by the activities of “unknown gunmen”, a loosely affiliated network of armed actors that have violently enforced compliance through arson, threats, and targeted killings. These faceless enforcers have contributed to a breakdown in public confidence and civic order.
The economic toll has been devastating. The report estimates that over ₦7.6 trillion has been lost in just the first two years of the order, with commercial hubs such as Onitsha and Aba reduced to ghost towns every Monday. Micro, small, and medium enterprises, the lifeblood of the regional economy, are collapsing under the weight of missed business opportunities, while transport operators report daily losses of up to ₦13 billion. This enforced stagnation has reversed years of progress and threatens to leave lasting scars on the region’s growth trajectory.
Education has also suffered, with the report documenting widespread disruptions to school calendars, national exams, and daily learning routines. An entire generation of students is being shortchanged, their future opportunities diminished by a conflict they did not create. In a region that has long prided itself on academic excellence, this educational erosion represents a particularly painful cost.
On the security front, the report details over 700 deaths linked to IPOB-related violence between 2021 and early 2025. The involvement of IPOB’s Eastern Security Network (ESN) in confrontations with state forces has only added fuel to the fire. Regrettably, the government’s heavy-handed military responses have often intensified local alienation rather than fostering resolution.
SBM Intelligence’s report offers a sobering conclusion: a solely militaristic response is not tenable. Sustainable peace demands more than boots on the ground. It requires a deliberate strategy of political engagement, economic revitalisation, and inclusive governance. The first step is restoring trust, through transparent investigations of alleged rights violations, community-led reconciliation, and targeted investments in local industry and education.
In these times, even the act of writing can feel perilous. But silence is no solution. The Southeast deserves a future unshackled from fear where children can learn, businesses can thrive, and political grievances are addressed through dialogue, not disruption.
Let us not normalise this crisis. The findings of Four Years of Disruption must be the catalyst for a new approach, one that listens, heals, and rebuilds. The cost of continued silence is one the Southeast can no longer afford to bear.
Nwanze is a partner in SBM Intelligence
