Re: How Festus Keyamo Stumbled at a Critical Aviation Junction
The discourse regarding the call for a government-funded national carrier was reignited by Lawson Omokhodion’s THISDAY column of June 25, 2025, “How Festus Keyamo Stumbled at a Critical Aviation Junction.” Whilst noble in its intent to restore Nigeria’s aviation pride, the article fundamentally misunderstands the current global aviation economics and Nigeria’s own fiscal realities.
In his piece, Omokhodion took issue with the Honourable Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Festus Keyamo’s alleged outright rejection of a state-backed national carrier. He pointed to examples across the world where government involvement has driven aviation growth, created jobs, and boosted tourism. Let us dissect this carefully.
The truth is more complex and far less comforting. Beneath the stirring rhetoric of national pride lurk several dangerous misconceptions: that state ownership guarantees operational efficiency, that Nigeria’s fiscal situation can sustain such an ambitious venture, and that the global aviation landscape has not fundamentally changed in ways that render traditional flag carriers increasingly obsolete. These assumptions demand scrutiny, especially when Nigeria’s track record with state-owned enterprises offers sobering lessons.
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The nostalgia for a national carrier inevitably invokes the ghost of Nigeria Airways, once the pride of African aviation. At its 1980s peak, it operated 32 aircraft on four continents. Yet by its 2003 liquidation, it had just two operational planes and over $60 million in debt. This collapse wasn’t merely financial; it was deeply systemic. Routes were chosen based on political patronage, not profitability. Maintenance contracts went to cronies. Staff salaries went unpaid for months, while top management engaged in unchecked graft.
The notion that “restructuring” could have salvaged Nigeria Airways ignores the deeper reality: in Nigeria, state-owned enterprises often become patronage vehicles first and functional businesses second. This pattern is well-documented, from NEPA (now PHCN) to the corruption-plagued NNPC. The Nigeria Air saga, featuring a hastily repainted Ethiopian Airlines plane, no operating licence, and $8.8 million in reportedly mismanaged funds, should have been the final indictment of this failed model. Yet, remarkably, some commentators still advocate doubling down.
As aviation analyst Sindy Foster bluntly noted, “Nigeria doesn’t have a national carrier problem; it has a policy environment problem. Fix the ecosystem first.” And that is precisely what the Minister is doing.
The global aviation industry has changed dramatically. According to 2025 IATA data, 78 percent of global airline capacity is now operated by private entities. This shift is not ideological, but pragmatic. With post-pandemic profit margins averaging just 3.2 percent, state ownership has become financially unsustainable. Since 1991, 32 national carriers in Europe alone have been privatised, including British Airways, Lufthansa, and Air France. Even in Africa, the best performers like Ethiopian Airlines operate with significant autonomy, while underperformers like South African Airways require massive bailouts before partial privatisation.
Air India’s trajectory offers an instructive example. Once a symbol of post-colonial pride, it accrued $12 billion in debt before finally returning to the Tata Group in 2022. At one point, the airline employed 210 staff per aircraft, well above the industry average. The lesson is clear: in an industry where efficiency is survival, state ownership is more of a burden than a benefit.
Nigeria’s own fiscal reality further undermines the argument for a national carrier. With debt servicing now consuming 92 percent of government revenue, there is simply no room for vanity projects. Launching a viable national carrier would cost over $1 billion, funds that could be better used to address real aviation priorities.
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For example, that capital could upgrade every major airport with CAT III instrument landing systems, immediately reducing the 40 percent of flight cancellations caused by poor visibility. It could establish world-class aviation academies to address the country’s critical pilot and engineering shortage. More impactfully, it could provide targeted support to successful private operators like Air Peace, whose entry into the Lagos–London route forced a 60 percent drop in foreign carrier fares overnight.
The job creation argument also fails scrutiny. While Ethiopian Airlines employs 25,000 people, it required $10 billion in support—translating to $400,000 per job. For a country battling 33.3 percent unemployment and rising inflation, this is an indefensible use of resources. The private sector is far more efficient: Air Peace employs 2,300 Nigerians despite operating in a hostile regulatory environment with over 37 levies and chronic forex shortages.
There are already successful indigenous models. Ibom Air, for instance, is 94 percent state-owned but professionally managed and insulated from political interference. Its operational discipline has allowed it to grow steadily while maintaining high standards. Similarly, Air Peace’s rapid international expansion has reshaped pricing and competitiveness in the region.
Minister Keyamo’s emphasis on public-private partnerships rather than full state ownership reflects modern aviation best practice. His May 2025 clarification, that the government has not abandoned the national carrier idea but insists on private sector leadership, is the only viable path forward. The proposed concessions of Lagos and Abuja airports illustrate how the government can act as an enabler, not a competitor.
As Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury noted during a 2024 visit to Abuja, “Africa’s aviation challenge isn’t airlines; it’s runways, control towers and maintenance bays.” That is where Nigeria’s attention should be. Airport concessions must be accelerated. The long-delayed Lagos MRO facility must be completed to curb the $500 million annually spent on foreign aircraft maintenance.
Understandably, the emotional appeal of a green-and-white flag carrier is strong. But national pride cannot override operational logic. Justice Lewis-Allagoa’s 2024 ruling against Nigeria Air was not a procedural formality; it was a principled rejection of a flawed, opaque process that excluded domestic stakeholders. This is a key detail Lawson Omokhodion overlooks.
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If Festus Keyamo “stumbled” at this aviation junction, it was a stumble toward progress. By resisting outdated models and prioritising ecosystem reform, private sector partnerships, and infrastructure development, the Minister is charting a realistic path forward.
The choice before us is not one of sentiment versus sovereignty. It is one of symbolism versus substance. Nigeria must let go of romanticised pasts to build a functional, competitive aviation future.
National carriers no longer define aviation power; functional ecosystems do. What Nigeria needs now is regulatory clarity, modern infrastructure, private investment, and leadership willing to reject nostalgia for results. In that regard, Minister Keyamo is leading the country in the right direction.
Emameh Gabriel; Assistant on Media and Research to the Honourable Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development
