Nigeria’s population is growing faster than its infrastructure, faster than its housing supply, and certainly faster than its land availability in major cities. By 2030, the country is expected to surpass 263 million people, with much of that growth concentrated in urban centres. The result: land is getting scarce, expensive, and increasingly tied to questions of economic security.
Lagos offers a glimpse of what lies ahead. In less than ten years, land prices in parts of the city have tripled. Places once dismissed as remote, Ibeju-Lekki, Epe, and Badagry are now at the centre of land speculation, thanks to infrastructure projects like the Lekki Deep Seaport and the Dangote Refinery. What was once farmland now commands millions of naira per plot.
The trend isn’t limited to Lagos but extends to Abuja’s outskirts, such as Gwarinpa Extension and Kubwa. This isn’t just price inflation; it’s a structural shift driven by rising demand, constrained supply, and uneven urban planning.
Meanwhile, the housing deficit stands at 28 million units, according to the Federal Mortgage Bank of Nigeria. For many Nigerians, raw, undeveloped land has become one of the few ways to protect income from inflation and economic uncertainty. Unlike savings eroded by currency devaluation or volatile investments, land remains visible, stable, and in limited supply.
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But with opportunity comes risk. In recent years, thousands have lost money to fraudulent land deals, murky documentation, and poor planning. In Lagos, authorities demolished structures in Mende, citing illegal land acquisition. In Abuja, bulldozers cleared buildings in Lugbe for safety violations. In both cities, these demolitions reflect deeper governance failures and a lack of due diligence on the part of buyers.
What matters now is not just owning land but owning it right. Location, verification, and timing have become critical. Affordable land in growth corridors areas just outside current urban pressure zones but within reach of planned infrastructure is drying up. Projects like the Fourth Mainland Bridge and the Lagos-Ibadan rail line are quietly rewriting the real estate map of southwestern Nigeria.
Smart investors are not simply looking for land; they are watching road alignments, port projects, and regional development blueprints. The goal is to buy ahead of demand, not at the peak of speculation.
The bigger picture is this: in a country where inflation is still in double digits, where the naira remains under pressure, and where access to credit is limited, land is becoming more than just property. It is a hedge. It is one of the few accessible stores of value for the middle class.
By 2030, the cost of hesitation may be greater than the price of action today. This is not a call to panic or speculate wildly. It is a prompt to think carefully, to research, and to move deliberately because in Nigeria’s shifting urban landscape, waiting often means losing out.
Land is not just an asset. It is a strategy. It is stability. And for many Nigerians, it may be the only affordable form of long-term economic protection left.
Dr Tosin Fatukasi, MD/CEO Lomel homes limited, a Lagos-based real estate developer of Gold-stripes court Lekki Ajah.
