Recently, there has been widespread news in the media as to how MTN Nigeria lost over 600,000 data subscribers, a possible outcome of the xenophobic attacks in South Africa and subsequent reprisal in Nigeria in July/August earlier in the year.
Although factual, the true representation of the situation can only be gleaned by a comparative analysis of the statistics released by the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) over the past year alongside data by other mobile network operators.
Q4 2018
At December 2018, MTN Nigeria was the market leader for internet subscribers by holding 39 percent of the total 111,632,518 subscribers which amounted to 43,899,957 subscribers. Airtel Nigeria held about 27 percent of the market share with 29,757,791 subscribers while Globacom followed at 25 percent with 28,054,948 subscribers. 9mobile held 8.9 percent with 9,919,820 subscribers.
Q1 2019
By March 2019, the total number of Internet Subscribers in Nigeria according to the NCC was 115,938,225 and of this number, those who subscribed using MTN Nigeria stood at 46,552,185 making a total of 40.2 percent of the entire market share. Trailing behind was Airtel with 31,243,185 subscribers making about 27 percent closely followed by Globacom with 28,436,386 subscribers which made up about 25 percent.
The remaining 8 percent of the market share was held majorly by 9mobile and then Visafone.
Q2 2019
Taking a step backwards and peering into the second quarter of the year, the total number of internet subscribers (GSM) as at June 2019 was 122,292,079 according to NCC. MTN Nigeria owned 52,254,917 of these subscribers amounting to 42.7 percent of the entire market share with Airtel and Globacom competing for second place with 26.1 percent and 23.7 percent respectively.
Q3 2019
On October 31st 2019, the NCCs Report and Statistics revealed that in September 2019 at the end of the third quarter, the total number of Internet Subscribers (GSM) in Nigeria stood at 122,792,29. MTN Nigeria as usual owned a swooping 41 percent of this figure by accounting for 51,675,658 subscribers. The other operators i.e. Airtel, Globacom, 9mobile and Visafone managed to share the other 48 percent amongst themselves with Airtel leading by 27 percent (33,198,004), Globacom following with 24 percent (29,366,479). 9mobile held about 6.9 percent with their 8,468,940 subscribers and Visafone owned the remaining barely 2 percent.
What this means: MTN Nigeria v. lead competition (Airtel)
From the data above, MTN Nigeria has managed to not only maintain the lead by a wide margin they have gone further to increase this margin when compared to their performance by Q4 2018 and Q1 2019.
By December 2018, MTN Nigeria led by holding 39 percent of the market share while their lead competitor, Airtel Nigeria held 27 percent of the market share thereby leaving a 12 percent gap between both operators.
By first quarter 2019, the dynamics had changed and MTN Nigeria led the industry by holding 40.2 percent an increase from their previous figure and Airtel Nigeria dipped to 26.1 percent, still maintaining their position as lead competition bringing the marginal difference to 14.1 percent.
At the end of the second quarter, MTN Nigeria had once again outperformed the others by controlling 42.7 percent of the entire internet subscription (GSM) market. Airtel Nigeria, although still the lead competition maintained its range at 27 percent of total market share which brought the marginal difference between MTN and the next player in the industry to 15.7 percent.
By September 2019, the marginal difference stood at 14 percent with MTN leading by 41 percent and Airtel trailing behind at their usual 27 percent.
Increase in total market share v. MTN Nigeria.
As the total number of internet subscribers gradually increased from its initial 111,632,516 in December 2018 to its current 122,792,291 by September this year, MTN Nigeria is the only operator to have maintained an increase in its market share from 39 percent to as high as 42.7 percent in the second quarter and now at 41 percent which even after weathering the Xenophobia crisis and USSD issue is a notable 2 percent increase. While Airtel Nigeria has mostly maintained its 27 percent market share, Globacom currently stands at 24 percent a dip from their 25 percent share by December last year.
This implies that the increase in total number of internet subscribers can mainly be traced to the increase in the number of subscribers recorded on MTN Nigeria’s network.
In summary, this year, MTN Nigeria has done tremendous work in the mobile internet subscriber market and the narrative that there position is being challenged more than ever by the competition is not only ignorant but largely erroneous.
PIUS OKORUWA
