As nations race toward net-zero carbon targets by 2050, the world finds itself in a curious paradox: while climate rhetoric has gone electric, the roads and the retail fuel infrastructure alongside them remain stubbornly hydrocarbon-powered. So also are the aircraft being flown by the large entourage of delegates who attend various summits on energy transition.
Take the United States, for instance. Major convenience and fuel retailers like QuikTrip, Buc-ee’s, Love’s, RaceTrac, and 7-Eleven are still pouring billions of dollars into expanding gasoline and diesel station footprints. These are not just fuelling depots; they are full-scale commercial hubs with restaurants, retail, and trucker services designed for decades of service. This isn’t a sunset industry acting like it’s in its final hours. It is behaving like there’s fuel left to burn, quite literally.
“Rather than forcing an unrealistic shift, the world needs a hybrid model of transition: one that embraces EV growth without punishing the realities of today’s market.”
Meanwhile, global automakers are still rolling out millions of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles annually. Even as Tesla headlines dominate, gasoline engines continue to flood emerging markets and mid-income buyers. In 2024 alone, internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles still accounted for more than 75 percent of new vehicle sales worldwide, according to the International Energy Agency.
The answer lies in infrastructure inertia, market mismatch, and the truth about energy transition.
1. The energy transition is not linear
Net-zero goals project an idealised future. But the present is messier. Fossil fuel vehicles aren’t going extinct overnight. Most ICE cars have a lifecycle of 10–20 years. The average truck is even longer. That means every gasoline car sold today is likely to still be on the road when we reach 2040—well into most countries’ net-zero target timelines.
2. The middle market is still ICE-dominant
Electric Vehicle (EV) adoption is surging—but unevenly. High-income urban centres see exponential growth. But rural communities, freight operators, and developing economies remain heavily ICE-reliant due to cost, range anxiety, and infrastructure gaps. For companies like Buc-ee’s or Love’s that serve long-haul drivers, diesel remains king.
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3. Fuel retailers are hedging, not ignoring
These giants aren’t ignorant of the EV trend—they’re strategically hedging. New stations are being built with EV charging ports, but the revenue core still relies on gasoline customers and retail footfall. Their investments reflect a dual-reality strategy: serve today’s dominant demand while gradually preparing for tomorrow’s. This is why the emphasis is still so much on the inside sales. The exterior will respond accordingly to the market realities when the time comes.
4. Stranded asset risk is real—But overstated (For now)
Critics often cite stranded assets—investments that will lose value in a carbon-regulated future—as proof of poor planning. But that assumes a rapid, coordinated shift away from fossil fuels. The more likely scenario is gradual attrition: gasoline demand plateaus, then declines slowly over decades, especially in heavy transport and aviation. In this window, well-positioned retail chains can extract significant value.
5. Policy vs. practice: A global disconnect
Many Western countries trumpet net-zero plans, but domestic subsidies still support fossil fuel industries. Meanwhile, major oil-exporting countries are doubling down on refinery capacity (see: Saudi Aramco, Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery). This dissonance between policy and investment sends mixed signals to energy players.
So, what should be done?
Rather than forcing an unrealistic shift, the world needs a hybrid model of transition: one that embraces EV growth without punishing the realities of today’s market. Here’s what that could look like:
· Incentivise dual-use infrastructure: fuel stations should integrate EV fast chargers, solar canopies, and future-proof utilities.
· Phase out ICE via fleet conversions first: Target government, logistics, and ride-hailing fleets before everyday consumers.
· Support emerging market transitions: subsidise EV infrastructure where ICE use is still expanding, not contracting.
The road to net-zero isn’t a race between fossil fuels and electricity. It’s a winding path with on-ramps for both—and the lanes are not equally paved. Gasoline-powered infrastructure still has economic utility, even as its environmental costs become harder to justify. What we need is not ideological purity but pragmatic evolution.
Net-zero is the destination. But the tank is not empty yet.
Olugbenga Olaoye is a seasoned professional with extensive experience in the oil and gas industry. He is a PhD candidate specialising in energy economics and holds a master’s degree in public service from the Clinton School of Public Service, USA, and an Executive MBA from the Lagos Business School. He writes from Fort Worth, Texas. Email: gbengausedu@gmail.com
