As Nigeria’s real estate sector hurtles towards an estimated $2.61 trillion valuation by the end of 2025, with residential properties alone accounting for over $2.25 trillion, the market is witnessing more than just expansion. It is undergoing a subtle but significant shift in the geography of prestige.
For years, Eko Atlantic City has embodied the pinnacle of aspirational living: a land-reclamation megaproject forged from the Atlantic, laden with billion-dollar promises and global fanfare. Yet, just three minutes away, in the relatively obscure Bluewater, Okunde zone of Victoria Island, a quieter transformation is underway, one that could just as decisively shape the future of elite urban living in Lagos.
This area remains paradoxically underpriced. One-bedroom apartments at The Carnelian, for instance, still list at approximately ₦560 million ($365,000), a figure that belies its proximity to Eko Atlantic and its alignment with the city’s long-term infrastructural vision. But this anomaly may not last. As master-plans for promenades, utilities and mixed-use zones inch toward completion, and as foundational infrastructure solidifies, what looks undervalued today could soon be seen as a missed opportunity.
Indeed, early investor figures tell a compelling story. Plots acquired at ₦800 million as recently as 2022 are now internally valued at ₦4.5 billion, a staggering 460 percent uptick. These numbers are not mere market exuberance; they are evidence of a zone where risk and reward are moving quickly out of equilibrium.
Several larger forces are converging here. First, the long-promised Lagos–Calabar Coastal Highway has commenced construction, with the 47.47 km phase now underway. This new coastal artery will connect Victoria Island to a string of coastal states, reducing travel time and increasing the strategic pull of its endpoints. Such transport corridors have historically catalyzed new urban centers and there is no reason to think this instance will be any different.
Second, Eko Atlantic itself continues to expand. With its free-trade status and world-class infrastructure, it is projected to host at least 250,000 residents and 150,000 commuters daily. As with similar global urban enclaves, from Canary Wharf in London to Songdo in South Korea, peripheral zones often inherit demand overflow, attracting professionals, expatriates and diplomatic corps priced out of the centre but unwilling to compromise on quality or connectivity.
More broadly, the macro-data reinforces the trend. Lagos and Ogun states led the nation in property appreciation last year, according to the BuyLetLive index. Globally, Knight Frank’s Prime Global Cities Index logged a 2.8 percent rise in elite housing prices through March 2025, affirming continued investor appetite for well-positioned urban real estate.
Yet, amid the bullish data, caution is warranted. For now, Bluewater–Okunde remains under construction, both physically and reputationally. The risk for investors is not the absence of upside but the potential lag in realising it. Urban value appreciation often follows not only brick and mortar but also perception and confidence. Without concerted public-private coordination to deliver on infrastructure timelines and enforce planning regulations, early momentum may stall.
That said, Nigeria’s real estate market has long rewarded patience in strategic locations. With projected valuations in Bluewater–Okunde expected to triple by 2028 and annual rental returns forecasted at $50,000 to $100,000 for long-term and short-let offerings, respectively, the fundamentals appear sound. Unlike many boom-bust cycles driven by hype, this zone’s trajectory seems tethered to real infrastructure and demographic shifts, not just speculative churn.
Ultimately, the question is not whether Bluewater–Okunde can rival Eko Atlantic but whether it represents a more accessible, equally strategic entry point into the future of Lagos urbanism. The numbers suggest it can, and perhaps will. For investors looking beyond today’s headlines to tomorrow’s addresses, the time to look three minutes east of Eko Atlantic is now.
Keji Giwa, a real estate innovator and CEO of Digital Landlords Nigeria Limited, is responsible for Giwa Gardens Waterpark, Lekki Party Villas, and The Carnelian high-end residential development. He founded Digital Bananas Technology in 2012 and launched Career Insights in 2014. Giwa advocates for data-driven, tech-enabled property solutions to drive local development and position Nigeria on the global tourism and real estate map.
