Several OPEC delegates said they expected the meetings on Wednesday and Thursday to be relatively painless, resulting in an output cut extension by nine months.
“I think the meeting will go smoothly,” an OPEC delegate said, referring to signs of consensus in the group including Iran, which has fought Saudi Arabia in many recent OPEC meetings.
Several delegates and ministers said they did not believe cuts could be extended to a full year.
Possible surprises could include a deepening of the cuts, but this would likely be minor because the non-OPEC producers that are expected to join the accord for the first time on Thursday, such as Turkmenistan and Egypt, are fairly small.
OPEC’s cuts have helped push oil back above $50 a barrel, giving a fiscal boost to producers. By 0750 GMT on Wednesday, Brent crude was up 0.5 percent at around $54.50 a barrel.
But the price rise has spurred growth in the U.S. shale industry, which is not participating in the output deal, thus slowing the market’s re-balancing with global stocks still near record highs.
“This (stocks decline) is a bit tricky as production cuts cause higher prices which will incentivize more production for the U.S. shale oil and reduce the impact of the production cuts. So it’s a bit cyclical,” said Sushant Gupta, research director for consultancy Wood Mackenzie.
