Nigeria’s ambitious plan to raise the contribution of Information and Communications Technology (ICT) to 21 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 2027 hinges on creating a predictable business environment and giving operators flexibility to adjust pricing in line with inflation, Karl Toriola, MTN Nigeria’s chief executive officer, told BusinessDay.
Toriola said the ICT sector’s growth potential is unquestionable, but the speed of progress will depend largely on how government addresses regulatory certainty, capital attraction, and tariff flexibility.
The federal government is banking on Nigeria’s top three technology companies, which now dominate the Nigerian Stock Exchange, to propel ICT’s GDP share from 17.68 percent recorded in 2024 to 21 percent by 2027.
Announcing the target at the inaugural GITEX Nigeria 2025 in Lagos, Bosun Tijani, minister of Communications, Innovation and Digital Economy, described ICT as Nigeria’s new economic backbone.
“By 2027, we project the ICT sector will account for 21 percent of GDP, driven by the innovation and market leadership of our top tech companies,” Tijani said.
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He added that ICT has already surpassed oil in terms of economic contribution, reshaping Nigeria’s growth trajectory, stressing that technology must not only boost GDP but also deliver inclusive prosperity under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda.
For MTN’s CEO, the government’s target is attainable but contingent on reforms that create stability and confidence for investors.
“It is achievable with the right enabling environment. The pillars are attracting capital at scale, ensuring professional operators are supported, providing regulatory certainty, and allowing pricing adjustments in line with inflationary realities. Without those, investment stalls and the sector cannot deliver its full potential.
“Capital doesn’t care about passport colour; it seeks safe, predictable returns. If investors cannot repatriate funds, if rules change midstream, or if operators cannot rationally adjust pricing when inflation quadruples costs, then growth will stall,” Toriola explained.
He cited MTN Nigeria’s experience in 2023, when the naira’s sharp depreciation from around N450 to over N1,600 to the dollar quadrupled the company’s operating costs while tariffs remained frozen. “We ran losses and negative cash flow. Without pricing flexibility, no industry can be healthy,” he revealed.
Operators in advanced markets like the US and UK, routinely adjusted tariffs broadly in line with inflation during 2020–2023, Toriola averred, adding that, “Nigeria cannot be the exception if we want a sustainable ICT sector.
Beyond policy, MTN is investing heavily in infrastructure to accelerate digital transformation. Toriola announced the company had launched Phase 1 of what will become West Africa’s largest data centre, about 4.5MW today, growing to 14MW across three phases. “It brings local cloud computing to entrepreneurs and businesses with naira-denominated contracts, avoiding dollar volatility,” he said.
The company is also scaling fibre-to-the-home (FTTH) to reach 1.5 million homes in the first phase, with ambitions to go much further. “Not just in Victoria Island, but in Alimosho, Benin City, Ife, Katsina, Jos and everywhere. Unlimited broadband at scale is what truly drives a digital economy,” he said.
Toriola acknowledged public frustration with network quality but insisted MTN is investing aggressively to close gaps. In 2025 alone, the operator has earmarked N1 trillion in capex for radio, fibre and resilience upgrades.
He added that tariff rationalization is key to sustaining investments. “Quality will continue improving, first where constraints are tightest, then nationwide. But without the financial headroom, it cannot be sustained,” he warned.
MTN is among Nigeria’s largest corporate taxpayers and has been recognised by the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) for compliance. The company is also refurbishing and dualising the Enugu–Onitsha Expressway under the Road Infrastructure Tax Credit Scheme and is designing a new head office in Lagos that Toriola said will become one of the country’s iconic structures.
On compliance, Toriola said, “It is non-negotiable. We focus on the value we create for society, not just on profits.”
On infrastructure sharing, MTN’s CEO confirmed MTN and Airtel have signed a framework for expanded infrastructure sharing. “It is pragmatic—where two towers don’t make economic sense, one operator builds and both host equipment. We also exchange fibre routes, so capacity expands faster and cheaper,” he said.
He pointed to MTN’s T2 roaming agreement with 9mobile, which allows 9mobile subscribers to roam nationwide on MTN’s 4G network. “It is a moral responsibility. It saves them billions in upfront capex and supports competition, which ultimately benefits consumers,” he said.
On Nigeria’s volatile economy, Toriola said MTN had worked to minimize FX risks by paying down trade lines and renegotiating dollar-heavy contracts. We have reduced IHS contract exposure from 60 percent in dollars to 30 percent,” he said.
He acknowledged that imported equipment, software licenses, and base stations still require dollars, but noted progress in sourcing fibre from local manufacturers. “We have tried to eliminate as much FX risk as possible. Next time there is a devaluation, you won’t see the same impact on us,” he said.
Toriola dismissed the idea that Nigerians cannot afford broadband devices. “Voice-only handsets are still affordable, and we earn over a third of revenue from voice. Meanwhile, 4G handset penetration is already at 56 percent to 57 percent among active data users because manufacturing costs keep falling. Five years ago, 5G handsets were $1,000; today, some sell for $70,” he said.
He argued that fibre-to-the-home, like solar panels, is a life-changing investment. “Yes, there is a cost, but once you have broadband at home, productivity rises as children can learn online, businesses can run more efficiently, SMEs can compete. The multiplier effect is why ICT must reach 21 percent of GDP,” he said.
The federal government’s ICT GDP target represents both ambition and opportunity. The sector has already overtaken oil as Nigeria’s biggest economic driver, and with investments in fibre, cloud, AI, and startup ecosystems expanding, the foundations are strong.
But as Toriola underscored, realising this goal depends less on technology and more on policy. Stable rules, investor confidence, and pricing flexibility will determine whether Nigeria’s ICT sector merely sustains its current trajectory or accelerates into a global digital powerhouse.
“Nigeria has the talent, the market, and the companies. What we need now is the enabling environment to unlock their full potential,” Toriola added.
