Nigeria can transform tough reforms into shared prosperity, unlock $1trn economy — NESG

…says industrialisation, infrastructure development, and investment are critical to consolidate reforms

..warns against prioritising revenue growth at the expense of businesses

The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) has said that Nigeria must begin to act urgently to transform ongoing economic reforms into sustainable growth and shared prosperity for citizens, warning that failure to consolidate the current phase could erode the hard gains made so far.

The Economic group highlighted a seven-point focus area at the ongoing Economic Summit in Abuja, on Monday, that must underpin the next stage of reforms, which includes a renewed focus on industrialisation and enterprise growth, infrastructure development and unlocking investments.

The group also highlighted fiscal sustainability, inclusion, strengthened institutions and improved security as critical drivers for the next phase of the reforms.

According to NESG, these reforms will not only bring gains for Nigerians but can also unlock the ambitious $1 trillion economy.

Olaniyi Yusuf, chairman, NESG, in his opening remarks, commended the government for taking “courageous steps” to remove fuel subsidies, unify the foreign exchange market, and initiate tax reforms, but acknowledged that Nigerians are currently in grief for these changes. He stressed that the real test now lies in converting reform gains into tangible improvements in productivity, competitiveness, and inclusion.

“If we stop here, we risk losing the progress that has been so courageously won. The challenge before us is to move decisively into the consolidation phase, embedding reforms in ways that drive jobs, growth, and inclusion, while laying the foundations for long-term transformation that will secure prosperity for every Nigerian”, he said.

He framed Nigeria’s reform journey around three distinct phases: stabilisation, consolidation, and acceleration, and called for deliberate policy action to move from the first to the second phase.

“For the mother wondering how to stretch her infant, for the young breadwinner searching for opportunity, and for the small business trying to stay afloat, reforms must not only stabilise our economy, they must also translate into opportunity and prosperity.” Yusuf said.

The NESG chairman said the country’s economic recovery remained fragile despite signs of improvement, as growth averaged 3.7 per cent in the first half of 2025, up from 2.9 per cent in the same period last year, while oil production has risen to 1.6 million barrels per day amid improved security in the Niger Delta. Yet, inflation at 20.1 per cent, weak capital inflows, and rising living costs continue to squeeze households and businesses.

He also warned against a narrow focus on Internally Generated Revenue (IGR) at the expense of business growth, saying it will “will kill the goose that lays the golden egg”.

On industrialisation, he said, “We must build industries that will produce locally, anchor them to local value chains, output processing, renewable energy, and light manufacturing. SMEs that account for 96% of our businesses must have access to affordable finance, stable power, and technology.”

He said investment in infrastructure, especially transportation, renewable power, efficient logistics, and digital connectivity, will ensure competitiveness.

The NESG chairman said Nigeria must also ensure policy predictability, transparent regulations to attract and protect investment.

For fiscal sustainability. Nigeria must strengthen revenue generation, manage debt prudently, and align fiscal and monetary policies to foster growth while keeping inflation in check. Economic reforms must be felt through improved education, healthcare, food security, and jobs, especially for women and young people.

He urged Nigeria to strengthen its institutions, arguing that lasting reforms depend on systems, not personalities. Regulators, he added, must enable rather than stifle business growth.

Beyond consolidation, Yusuf said Nigeria must prepare for an “acceleration phase” driven by structural transformation, human capital development, and global competitiveness. He stressed industrialisation, infrastructure, investment, inclusion, and institutions, the “five I’s” — as the pillars that will anchor this long-term transformation.

He also urged collaboration between government and the private sector, describing the latter as a “co-driver of transformation, not merely a beneficiary.”

While acknowledging that vested interests, weak institutions, and governance gaps have slowed reform implementation, Yusuf reaffirmed the NESG’s commitment to act as a bridge between policy and execution.

Omoboyede Olusanya, Vice Chairman of NESG, speaking on the ambitious target for $1 trillion economy by 2030, said it is achievable but Nigeria “can’t continue to do the same thing and expect to have a different outcome”.

For him, one of the biggest things that must happen is industrialisation driven by agricultural production, noting that the yield is still low. In addition, he said Nigeria must build the infrastructure that would drive industrialisation.

According to him, attaining the target would mean moving a significant part of the citizens out of poverty.

He noted that Nigeria, currently at $225 billion, would need an additional $745 billion to the GDP in four years at 15% annual GDP growth. Thus, Olusanya said effort levels need to be unprecedented, urgent, immediate, and collaborative

“If you think that China at its peak was doing 11%, that tells you the phenomenal work that needs to be done”, he said.

To accelerate progress, Olusanya urged sustained investment in technology, human capital development, and macroeconomic stability with favourable interest rates that would allow investment to thrive.

“We cannot get pure macroeconomic stability in an environment where we keep seeing high interest rates. The interest rates today are to be tuned on to encourage investment”, he urged.