Nigeria’s oil revenue prospects are under renewed threat as the country’s crude oil production slipped to its lowest level in 11 months, raising concerns over the country’s ability to meet fiscal targets for 2025.
Data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) revealed that the country’s production fell to 1.39 million barrels per day (bpd) in September, down from 1.43 million bpd recorded in August.
This development indicates a two-month straight decline after falling to 1.43 million bpd in August from 1.51 million bpd in July.
According to the Commission, the total crude oil and condensate production for September 2025 fell to an average of 1.581 million barrels per day, with total condensate at 191,373 million bpd.
NUPRC stated, “In September, the industry recorded total crude oil and condensate production of 47.43 million barrels, which reflects a modest 1.61% year-on-year increase in average daily crude oil and condensate production year on year.
“This is a slight improvement over the 1.55 million bopd recorded in the same month of 2024, an uptick that suggests incremental progress.
“However, when measured on a month-on-month basis, crude oil and condensate production slightly dropped by 3.09% in September 2025, compared to the 1.63 million bopd recorded in August 2025.”
Further analysis showed that the last time Nigeria’s crude production fell below the 1.4 million bpd mark was in October 2024, when the country’s oil output stood at 1.33 million bpd.
The decline highlights persistent challenges facing Africa’s biggest oil producer, including pipeline vandalism, oil theft, operational disruptions and maintenance in the Niger Delta and industrial actions by workers in the industry.
Despite ongoing efforts by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited to curb losses and boost output, the figures remain well below the government’s benchmark production target of 1.78 million bpd set in the country’s budget.
Analysts say this shortfall could widen Nigeria’s fiscal deficit and limit the inflow of foreign exchange at a time when the naira continues to face severe pressure.
NUPRC attributed the development to the three-day industrial action by the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN), which resulted in the shutdown of some production and export facilities.
The PENGASSAN strike began on Monday, September 29, 2025, in response to the alleged mass dismissal of workers at the Dangote Refinery.
The strike was officially directed to start at 12:01 AM on September 29, though some members were initially asked to withdraw services earlier for prayers starting on Sunday, September 28. The strike was later suspended on October 1, 2025, after a resolution with the Dangote Group.
In a statement signed by Eniola Akinkuotu, head, Media and Strategic Communication, the commission also noted that two strategic facilities had a scheduled turnaround maintenance, which led to a reduction in overall production.
NNPC has reportedly recorded a staggering consolidated revenue exceeding N25 trillion in the first eight months of the year, from January to August, according to figures released from the company’s financial summaries.
The figure quoted represents revenue made available by the state-owned oil company between April and August 2025.
According to the NNPC, revenue recorded in April stood at N5.89 trillion. The company quoted N6 trillion in May, N4.57 trillion in June, N4.41 trillion in July, and N4.66 trillion in August.
“For July and August, revenue reflects the aggregate of groupwide revenues, including intercompany transactions,” NNPC stated.
At the time of filing this report, the state-owned oil company has yet to release the revenue made between January and March 2025.
While a final, audited figure is pending, the provisional cumulative revenue represents an unprecedented financial performance for the national oil company, highlighting the positive impact of the ongoing energy sector reforms and improved operational efficiency.
Nigeria’s back-to-back declining oil output also means that Africa’s largest crude producer has fallen short of meeting its Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) quota six out of the first nine months.
The country failed to meet its OPEC quota in February, March, April, May, August and September. According to the NUPRC, Nigeria produced 1.47 million bpd in February, 1.4 million bpd in March, and 1.49 million bpd in April.
In addition, the country’s output stood at 1.45 million bpd in May, 1.43 million bpd in August and 1.39 in September, raising concerns about the country’s ability to sustain improved output levels amid persistent operational challenges.
The figure is the lowest in six months so far in 2025 and is below Nigeria’s OPEC allocation of about 1.5 million bpd for the month.
Crude oil remains Nigeria’s biggest foreign exchange earner, accounting for more than 80% of export revenues.
The Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited has pledged to boost output to at least 1.7 million bpd by the end of the year through tighter security measures in the Niger Delta and renewed investment in upstream projects.
Nigeria’s crude oil production is expected to hit a total of 1.8 million barrels per day in December, according to Bayo Ojulari, the Group Chief Executive Officer of the NNPC.
Ojulari disclosed this while speaking with State House Journalists, in Lagos, after briefing President Bola Tinubu, at the State House, in Lagos, last week.
The NNPC CEO disclosed that he was at the State House to brief the President on developments in the oil sector, especially on the progress in the company.
“As you recall the President gave us a clear mandate which is to grow production to at least 2 million bpd by 2027 and upto 3 million bpd by 2030 as well as grow gas production as well.
The NNPC CEO who revealed that Nigeria is making good progress in crude oil production, recalled that “We recorded 1.68mbpd of oil production last month which was very good.
“That was the first in about five years, in terms of milestone, we also recorded the highest gas production above 7BCF per day which is also the highest in recent times”
“On the backdrop some turnaround maintenances, we have done in August and September, we are hoping that by the end of the year we should at least be clocking 1.8mbpd.”
