If Nigeria keeps exporting crude and importing refined products, we will stay trapped in dependency – Tunde-Oni

Nosakhare Tunde-Oni is a Pan-African business strategist with over a decade of experience in the oil and gas value chain. He holds an MSc in Energy Management from Robert Gordon University, a B.Eng in Petroleum Engineering from Covenant University, and is part of the September 2025 cohort of the Leading Economic Growth Executive Program at Harvard Kennedy School. He currently drives downstream expansion for Sahara Group in East Africa, leading market entry and growth strategies across Rwanda and the DRC, with additional experience in Nigeria, Ghana, Tanzania, and Côte d’Ivoire. In this interview with KENNETH ATHEKAME, he spoke on a number of issues, including the Petroleum Industry Act touted as a game-changer. Excerpts:

Nigeria’s oil and gas still fuels the economy, but with subsidy removal and the global energy shift, is the sector powering growth or holding the country back in Africa’s race for competitiveness?

Nigeria’s oil and gas sector continues to hold huge prospects for exceptional contribution to the nation’s economic growth and development. For decades, it powered our economy, created jobs, and generated government revenue in spite of the challenges in the sector. We are now beginning to witness some traction in the sense of a renewed approach to optimising value from the energy value chain.

While the removal of fuel subsidy is painful in the short term, it sets the tone for enhanced revenue and accelerated competitiveness. The downstream market, which covers refining, distribution, and retail, must now become competitive and efficient. This is so it can drive investment into local refineries, better storage facilities, and stronger infrastructure.

Globally, the world is racing toward renewables and cleaner energy. Nigeria needs to creatively adopt a transition that supports our growth sustainably, while pushing for diversification of revenues beyond the oil industry. The smarter path is to treat oil as seed money where we are investing its revenue in infrastructure, education, and human capital.

That way, oil becomes the launchpad for a more competitive economy, rather than a chain holding us back. So, is oil powering growth or limiting us? The truth is, oil has the capacity to move Nigeria into its next phase of growth if we support the sector with diversification of our economy and innovate to give impetus to new technologies, smart agricultural value chain, entrepreneurship and human capital development. Yes, oil will fuel transformation, but we must embrace other opportunities which we all know Nigeria has in abundance.

With the world pivoting to renewables, should Nigerian oil and gas players keep chasing today’s profits or start betting big on a low-carbon, Pan-African future?

It’s not an either/or choice; it’s both. Profits from oil and gas today keep the lights on, but the future is undeniably low-carbon. The global shift isn’t a trend; it’s permanent. Countries are setting carbon reduction targets, electric vehicles are becoming mainstream, and investors are moving money away from fossil fuels.

Nigeria’s oil and gas companies are already moving along the path of using today’s profits to invest in tomorrow’s energy. Gas is a great transition fuel. It’s cleaner than oil, and Nigeria has abundant reserves. We should be building gas power plants, encouraging compressed natural gas for transport, and promoting LPG for clean cooking. We continue to see a lot of traction in this regard, especially with the commissioning of new LPG vessels – the NNPC and Sahara Group recently added to their
fleet; and the development of distribution and storage infrastructure. At the same time, we must invest in solar, wind, and hydro across Africa. These are areas where the continent has massive potential.

The Pan-African perspective is critical. Instead of just asking, “How do we sell Nigerian oil?” the question should be, “How do we provide energy for Africa’s future?” That could mean investing in regional power grids, building solar farms in the Sahel, or funding geothermal projects in East Africa

Beyond selling crude, how can oil and gas companies reinvent themselves to drive Africa’s next growth frontiers in manufacturing, logistics, and technology?

Oil and gas companies can be catalysts for industrialisation if they expand beyond extraction. First, they should invest in refining and petrochemicals locally. Crude oil refined at home becomes fuel, plastics, textiles, and fertilizers we use in feeding African industries and creating jobs. Projects like the Dangote Refinery show how oil can drive manufacturing, but we need more across the continent. Second, these companies already excel at logistics. They build pipelines, ports, and distribution networks across difficult terrains. This expertise can be applied to develop infrastructure that benefits all industries, such as cross-border pipelines, transport corridors, and energy networks. Third, technology is already central to oil operations. The data, analytics, and monitoring tools used in oil fields can be applied to agriculture, fintech, and supply chains. Oil firms can set up venture arms to back startups in clean energy or logistics tech, turning their resources into broader innovation hubs. Finally, human capital matters. Oil companies train some of Africa’s best engineers and managers. These skills can be redeployed into water systems, renewable grids, or broadband networks. By diversifying into manufacturing, logistics, and technology, oil companies can remain vital to Africa’s economy long after oil’s dominance fades.

You’ve worked across Nigeria, Rwanda, Ghana, and Tanzania. Under AfCFTA, is Nigeria leading Africa’s oil and gas value chain or being left behind?

Nigeria should be leading, but right now we’re not. AfCFTA, the African Continental Free Trade Area is designed to integrate African markets and promote trade across borders. Success in AfCFTA means not just exporting raw resources but adding value and trading finished products regionally. Historically, Nigeria has exported crude oil abroad rather than refined fuel or petrochemicals within Africa. Meanwhile, countries like Côte d’Ivoire export refined products, and Algeria and Egypt are strong in petrochemicals and gas. Smaller players like Ghana and Senegal are also growing rapidly. Nigeria has the scale and talent to dominate, but we must improve refining, expand pipelines, and export value-added products. For example, we should be the main supplier of refined fuel and petrochemicals across West Africa. We should also expand gas exports to power energy-starved countries. At the moment, I’d say Nigeria is an “aspiring leader” rather than a true leader. AfCFTA is a huge opportunity, but opportunity without execution means nothing. If we step up, Nigeria can anchor Africa’s oil and gas value chain. If not, smaller nations will continue filling the gaps we leave.

In complex African markets, does mindset re-engineering and leadership clarity matter more for continental growth than even capital investment?

Yes. Money matters, but mindset and leadership determine whether money is productive or wasted. Africa has seen billions invested in projects that failed because of poor leadership or short.

term thinking. On the other hand, visionary leadership has enabled countries with fewer resources to achieve more. E.g Rwanda Mindset re-engineering means rejecting the belief that “this is how it has always been.” It means embracing innovation, accountability, and long-term thinking. Leadership clarity means having a vision and sticking to it consistently. When leaders set a clear tone, citizens and investors respond with trust. Capital is like fuel, but leadership is the engine. Without the right mindset and leadership, money alone won’t move us forward. With them, even modest resources can transform nations.

You speak to over 70,000 followers online. How much power does thought leadership really have to shift young Nigerians’ view of national development?

Thought leadership can be powerful, I view it as a spark rather than the entire flame. Engaging with tens of thousands of young Nigerians online has taught me that many are hungry for new ideas and perspectives on development. When I share insights about leadership, industry trends, or mindset shifts, I often see a real response where people commenting that a post opened their eyes or asking thoughtful questions that show their thinking is evolving. That tells me that thought leadership does have the power to seed change. It’s like planting ideas in fertile soil. Young Nigerians are very active on social media, and a compelling idea can spread quickly. I’ve had people tell me that something I wrote or said inspired them to start a small business, or to push for change in their community, or even just to read more about Nigeria’s economy. That’s immensely encouraging. It means we can use these platforms to challenge prevailing narratives, debunk pessimism, and showcase what’s possible. However, I’m also very aware that talk without action only goes so far. The real power of thought leadership is in how it catalyzes tangible change. If a thousand youths read an article about, say, renewable energy opportunities and as a result a handful decide to pursue careers or startups in that field, that’s a win. If my LinkedIn post about ethical leadership gets a young professional to commit to integrity in their job, that’s progress. These are small shifts in mindset that, collectively, can change how a generation approaches national development. But it’s a long game. One article or one social media influencer won’t overnight change Nigeria’s trajectory. It requires repetition, consistency, and many voices. I’m just one voice among many Nigerian thought leaders, and together we’re gradually pushing the envelope. I believe the greatest power of thought leadership is to influence culture to make things like entrepreneurship, innovation, and patriotism “cool” for young people. When the culture shifts, political and economic changes follow. We’ve seen it in other countries: a generation that believes will hold leaders accountable and build new enterprises. So, I’d say thought leadership is quite powerful as a starting point. It can shift views and start conversations that were once taboo. But it must translate into action that part is up to the audience. My role is to provoke and inspire; the power lies in Nigerians themselves to take those ideas and run with them. Judging by the engagement and feedback I get, I’m optimistic that this exchange of ideas is slowly but surely shaping a more development-oriented mindset among our youth.

The Petroleum Industry Act was billed as a game-changer. Is it actually driving growth for businesses or just another policy promise?

The Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) was meant to reform Nigeria’s outdated oil laws. It created clearer roles for regulators, aimed to improve transparency, and offered new fiscal terms to attract investors. On paper, it’s a major improvement. For example, the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation was transformed into NNPC Limited, a move designed to make it run more like a business than a bureaucracy. This could drive efficiency and partnerships. But passing a law doesn’t automatically change reality. Implementation is everything. Businesses want to see consistent enforcement, respect for commercial decisions, and delivery on promises like host community development funds. Some progress has been made, but confidence will only grow if the government sticks with the reforms long term. For now, the PIA is a strong foundation. If executed properly, it can transform the sector. If not, it risks being another policy that looked great on paper but never delivered in practice.

Africa’s energy and industrial future is people-driven. What radical models of training, mentorship, and leadership re-engineering could unlock the next wave of productivity and competitiveness for Africa as a whole?

Africa must invest boldly in people. Incremental change won’t cut it; we need radical models. First, create industry-academia pipelines. Companies should help design curriculums, provide equipment, and guarantee internships so graduates are ready for real jobs. Second, launch pan-African exchange programs. Imagine engineers from Rwanda training in Nigeria’s energy sector, or Kenyan agripreneurs learning in Côte d’Ivoire’s cocoa industry. This builds skills and solidarity across the continent. Third, scale mentorship using technology. A digital platform could connect young professionals with mentors across Africa, allowing thousands to benefit from knowledge once locked in silos. Finally, we need more leadership bootcamps. Programs that rewire leaders both in government and business to focus on service, innovation, and execution. I love what institutions like ALU in Rwanda, Covenant University and Daystar Leadership Academy in Nigeria are doing. Where they make ethical leadership and values a part of the curriculum. The most radical thing we can do is make lifelong learning the norm. From factory workers to ministers, everyone should be upgrading skills and mindsets. That’s how we unleash Africa’s 1.3 billion people as a true competitive advantage.

Finally, can Nigeria turn its oil wealth into a launchpad for Pan-African prosperity, or will it remain trapped in dependency?

Nigeria can but it depends on choices made now. If we keep exporting crude and importing refined products, we stay trapped in dependency. Oil prices crash, and our economy suffers. But if we treat oil as seed capital, we can transform. That means investing revenues in infrastructure like highways, rail, and power grids that connect Africa. It means pouring funds into education and technology so our people become the real wealth. It means diversifying into agriculture, manufacturing, and creative industries so Nigeria leads across sectors, not just oil. Other countries have done this. The UAE used oil to build global trade and tourism hubs. Botswana used diamonds to fund education and stability. Nigeria has even greater potential. The question is discipline and vision. Oil must not be our endgame; it must be the platform we use to build a diversified African century. If we make that shift, Nigeria can anchor Pan-African prosperity. If we don’t, we’ll keep squandering the gifts.