This article is the second and final part of the review of the Nigeria Integrated Resource Plan (NIRP 2024), a document which serves as the core technical component of the overall policy and planning framework of Nigeria’s power sector. An integrated resource plan (IRP) is a comprehensive planning tool used in the power sector to ensure that power supply is in line with demand, with emphasis on energy efficiency, cost-effectiveness and environmental sustainability. A national IRP will, in addition, take into consideration the overall energy mix (non-renewable, renewable and nuclear energy sources) strategy to achieve the main objectives of demand-side management, cost-effectiveness and environmental sustainability, among others. The focus of this article is on the transmission sub-sector, as transmission remains a major weak link in Nigeria’s power sector. Nigeria can never meet the demand for power nor achieve a least-cost power supply scenario with a weak and inadequate transmission infrastructure. Therefore, addressing the technical and infrastructural inadequacies of the transmission subsector, which essentially means the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN), is a key challenge of the NIRP.
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Nigeria has the largest electricity access deficit globally, with 40 percent of its population, or close to 100 million people, without access to grid electricity. The key objective of the Nigeria Integrated Resource Plan (NIRP 2024) is meeting demand for electricity in Nigeria and doing so in a least-cost way. According to African Development Bank (AfDB) officials, Nigeria’s total power generation requirement is estimated to be about 20,000 megawatts (MW). Our installed power generation capacity is about 13,000 MW. The wheeling capacity (the ability to transmit generated power) of the Transmission Capacity of Nigeria is currently estimated to be 8,500 mw and is expected to rise to 10,000 mw by 2026. The distribution capacity of the power distribution companies (DisCos) is roughly about 6,000 MW. The foregoing requires heavy investment in power generation, transmission and distribution. By the time Nigeria is able to generate, transmit and distribute sufficient power to meet demand, economies of scale will kick in, and the unit cost of power supply will come down – helping to achieve the least-cost objective for grid-transmitted power.
The key challenge responsible for weak and inadequate power distribution infrastructure is poor liquidity, which means inadequate working capital and poor access to long-term capital to expand and modernise the distribution infrastructure. The solution to illiquidity in the (DisCos) is the federal and state governments divesting their 40 percent ownership (full privatisation) through the stock exchange, achieving a cost-reflective tariff and the success of the ongoing massive metering programme. The last two are works in progress. The NIRP highlights the need for an enhanced distribution network thus: “Distribution network development will also play a significant role in enabling the successful electrification of Nigeria and will have to be planned at a distribution level in conjunction with the National transmission and generation expansion plans.”
“Nigeria has the largest electricity access deficit globally, with 40 percent of its population, or close to 100 million people, without access to grid electricity.”
The NIRP specifically focuses on expanding the power transmission network as a key strategy to bridge the power supply gap and meet national demand for electricity. The national electric power transmission grid comprises 330 kV (kilovolts) lines and 132 kV lines spanning about 18,000 kilometres across the country. The 330 kV lines are the main high-tension lines connecting the 29 power stations across the country to the 22,500 distribution substations, while the 132 kV lines are used for local networks. TCN has 43 units of 330 kV and 153 units of 132 kV substations across the country. Northern Nigeria, comprising the three northern geopolitical zones, is where the largest power transmission deficit is. The NIRP has this to say about the current North-South power transmission infrastructure dichotomy: “To make best use of the different types of generation in the different zones, optimal operation of the national power system requires strong North-South transmission interconnectors. This stands in contrast to the emphasis in the current transmission investments, which are more focused on East-West inter-zonal connectors. The importance of network development is critical, and future iterations of the NIRP should capture a more complete view of network development requirements and their interrelation with generation expansion in the first instance when TCN’s Transmission Master Plan is complete.”
However, there are ongoing power transmission projects in the Northern region aimed at bridging the power transmission infrastructure gap. These include the Kaduna to Jos double circuit line, the Mando to Rimin Zakari (Kano) and the Birnin-Kebbi to Sokoto 330 kV line. These and other ongoing transmission projects in Northern Nigeria are commendable efforts by the Ministry of Power (MoP).
Comprehensive least-cost modelling under the NIRP requires the use of projected power demand data and corresponding projected power generation and transmission data to balance future power demand with supply. However, the delay in preparing the Transmission Master Plan of TCN has made that impracticable. The transmission master plan, which is expected to be ready this year, 2025, will enable the preparation of a more robust integrated resource plan for the Nigerian power sector. The emphasis by the Nigeria Integrated Resource Plan 2025 on the power transmission sub-sector as a critical component of national planning for the power sector is one of the high points of the current integrated resource planning framework and process in Nigeria. It places a high premium on the importance of the transmission sub-sector in realising Nigeria’s quest for universal electricity connection, energy efficiency, least-cost energy supply and environmental sustainability.
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While the milestones being achieved by the Ministry of Power under the Tinubu Administration in the power transmission sub-sector should be commended, it should also be noted that the long-term, most sustainable solution to ensuring adequate capital investment, technological upgrade and efficient and mission-driven management of Nigeria’s power transmission infrastructure lies in full privatisation of the power transmission sub-sector and indeed the entire Nigeria power sector.
Mr Igbinoba is Team Lead/CEO at ProServe Options Consulting, Lagos.
