Nigeria’s power sector: The way forward (part five)

This is the fifth part of my concluding articles and the 26th in my series of articles on the power sector. The fourth, published last week, advocated for an aggressive grid expansion program, without which tens of thousands of public power supplies cannot be delivered. The present article considers the need for a comprehensive renewable energy strategy against the background of the global surge in renewable energy and its fast adoption rate in Nigeria.

The solar and wind boom pushed renewable energy contribution to global electricity generation to 40.9 percent, according to energy think tank Ember, with solar and wind energy alone representing 15 percent of global electricity generation in 2024, compared to just about 1 percent in 2010. Solar power generation has doubled to 2000 terawatt hours (TWh) and has become “the largest source of new electricity generation globally in the last three years and the engine of the global energy transition.” Solar energy recorded over 29 percent growth rate globally in 2024. According to Gavin Maquire, Thomson Reuters Global Energy Transition Columnist, “Clean power’s share of global utility electricity supply was a record 43.2 percent, compared to a 41.8 percent share during the first half of 2024…Hydro dams were the largest single source of clean electricity globally during January to June (2025), accounting for 14 percent, or 2,060 TWh, of total electricity output. Wind and solar farms both generated around 9 percent of total electricity supply, which was a record for both power sources in terms of absolute electricity output and share of overall supply. Nuclear power stations have supplied an additional 9 percent of global electricity so far this year.”

According to ember-energy.org, wind and solar energy generated 26 percent of China’s total electricity supply by April 2025. In the first five months of 2025, solar energy production increased by 120 TWh in China, which met 86 percent of the increase in demand. China’s total renewable energy generation capacity by June 2025 reached 1,830 GW, or 1,830,000 MW, while solar energy generation capacity alone in the same period contributed 1,241 GW by the end of April 2025.

South Africa’s total renewable energy generation capacity was expected to increase by 9.65 GW (6.2 GW of solar and 3.45 GW of wind) by June, 2025. Egypt planned to install 25.1 GW of renewable energy capacity by June 2025, comprising 13.7 GW of wind, 8.5 GW of solar, 2.8 GW of hydro, and 3.3 GW of battery energy storage. Egypt plans to generate 30 percent of its power supply from renewable sources by 2030. It also has plans to generate another 30 GW, or 30,300 MW, from projects like the Gulf of Suez Wind Farm and the Obelisk solar and battery storage projects.

“There is a need for an all-stakeholders meeting to brainstorm and come up with a comprehensive plan to strategically reposition renewable energy in line with global trends and also benchmark a few key countries in the renewable energy space in Africa, like South Africa, Egypt, and Morocco.”

Nigeria’s Renewable Energy Master Plan (REMP) envisages the generation of 23 percent of the total energy mix from renewable energy by 2025 and increasing the share to 36 percent by 2030. The plan targeted 2000 MW from small hydro sources, 500 MW from solar panels, 400 MW from biomass, and 40 MW from wind by 2025. The Distributed Access through Renewable Energy Scale-up (DARES) project is a US$750 million World Bank-funded program to bring renewable energy access to more than 17.5 million people and is meant to be a follow-up on the World Bank-financed Nigeria Electricity Project (NEP). It is difficult to give accurate figures about the renewable energy connections in Nigeria, especially through Solar House Systems (SHS), which have caught on like wildfire, especially in urban areas. There is currently a massive move towards off-grid and decentralised energy options powered by renewable energy, principally solar energy. According to GlobalData, Nigeria’s renewable energy capacity is projected to reach 1.7 GW by 2035, which is estimated to be a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.5 percent. However, Africa Finance Corporation’s State of Africa’s Infrastructure Report 2024 drew attention to the SEforALL’s spatial data studies that revealed that off-grid generation capacity in Lagos alone could exceed 19 GW, which is about 350 percent of the capacity of the national grid, recently put at 5.5 GW, or 5,500 MW.

However, if we compare the official data on Nigeria’s renewable energy plan with that of Egypt, it is obvious we are nowhere at all and need to go back to the drawing board. So, what is the way forward? There is a need for an all-stakeholders meeting to brainstorm and come up with a comprehensive plan to strategically reposition renewable energy in line with global trends and also benchmark a few key countries in the renewable energy space in Africa, like South Africa, Egypt, and Morocco. To begin with, China should be our biggest motivator for an ambitious renewable energy plan. We need to do a SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) analysis. Energy security has now been redefined to go beyond reliable, uninterrupted universal access to electricity to include sustainability and minimum dependence on importation of fuel supplies and energy technologies; hence, the United States, Europe, and India are currently investing heavily in renewable energy to minimise their dependence on China, which is the global powerhouse of renewable or green energy. Therefore, if our population is roughly 16 percent of the population of China, and if China is going to be producing a minimum of 2000 GW, and indeed more, of renewable energy by the end of 2025, shouldn’t Nigeria be planning to produce at least 5 percent of that (100 GW) by 2030, which is achievable by proper and determined planning?

We, however, need to expand our horizons and think out of the box. China is determined to be the factory of the world. We can be the factory of West and Central Africa in five years by 2030 and a Newly Industrialised Country (NIC) by 2035. China is determined to develop the power supply backbone to sustain their global industrial ambition. We can determine to develop the power backbone for our regional industrial ambition. Our renewable energy ambition will certainly be part of our overall power sector ambition. However, the renewable energy comprehensive plan will have many moving parts, including renaming and expanding the scope of the Rural Electrification Agency to become the Renewable Energy Agency of Nigeria (REAN); developing an ambitious local manufacturing plan for solar panels, lithium-ore batteries, huge energy storage batteries (study the Australian Tesla model), wind turbines, and renewable energy infrastructure, including robust and efficient networks for generation, transmission, distribution, and storage of solar, wind, geothermal, and biomass energy, among others.

The fast pace of renewable energy development and global surge in adoption present a daunting challenge that power sector policymakers and stakeholders across the renewable energy value chain in Nigeria can face headlong. This is more than what the government can do alone. Let us learn from China. The resources and technologies are available, but they are beyond what the government can do alone. They can be domesticated. We can do it. What is needed is “sustained political will and scaled-up investment,” according to the Director General of the Renewable Energy Policy Network for the 21st Century, REN21.

Mr. Igbinoba is Team Lead/CEO at ProServe Options Consulting, Lagos.