Insecurity and climate change are threatening Nigeria’s food security target, pushing the nation closer to an emergency.
Over 30.6 million people are facing an acute food crisis in Nigeria as fallout from climate change and rising insecurity worsen the country’s food insecurity.
“There is hunger in the land, the type we haven’t seen before, and it is alarming,” said Jude Obi, a professor and president of the Association of Organic Agriculture Practitioners of Nigeria.
The intersection of environmental shocks and rising insecurity has left millions of citizens food-insecure and driven up prices, threatening the economic and social stability of Africa’s most populous country.
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The continuous killings in food-belt states are worsening the plight of farmers who are already faced with a myriad of challenges.
The poor security situation in the country is adversely affecting food production, causing a supply shortfall and an import surge.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) show that Africa’s most populous country spent N1.7 trillion in the first three months (Q1) of 2025 on food importation.
Since the insecurity crisis escalated early this year, Nigeria has lost over 60 percent of its food production in key-producing states, according to experts.
Edobong Akpabio, a former head of agribusiness at the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry, said the country has lost 60 percent of its food production in key producing states due to rising insecurity.
“A lot of farmers do not cultivate in places where they usually grow crops because of the high rate of insecurity,” she said.
Ibrahim Kabiru, national president of All Farmers Association of Nigeria (AFAN), said that insecurity has been the biggest threat to food security in Nigeria.
According to him, Nigeria’s food system is impaired by the inability of farmers to seamlessly carry out farm activities without any form of fear.
Insecurity industry
A 2024 report by SBM Intelligence said that N139 million was paid as farm levies (including planting and harvesting) to bandits who demanded at least N224 million) between 2020 and 2024.
The report put farmers’ death toll between 2020 and 2024 at 1,356 on the back of banditry and farmers-herders clashes.
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According to the latest Crime Experience and Security Perception Survey report released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) recently, Nigerians paid N2.3 trillion as ransom to kidnappers in 12 months of 2023 and 2024.
The insecurity situation has continued to deter new agricultural investments in key crop-growing states while putting existing agribusinesses in constant peril.
Climate change impact
Also, climate change is considered the most pressing environmental problem facing the globe today, affecting patterns of life and general living.
Flooding, droughts, erosion, and off-season rains have made planting season unrealistic for a country that is dependent on rain-fed agriculture.
A 2024 report by the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), stated that torrential rains and floods across Nigeria in 2023 destroyed more than one million tons of crops – enough to feed 13 million people for a year.
“The impact of climate change on food production is becoming devastating yearly,” said Kabiru.
Over 151 deaths were recorded and 3,018 displaced as floods hit the Nigerian town of Mokwa in Niger State on May 29, 2025, according to data from the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA).
Failed policies, solutions
The federal government policy solutions such as the creation of the National Livestock Transformation Plan and anti-open grazing laws to address the issue have failed to yield results owing to poor implementation and lack of political will.
Experts noted that establishing a clear and equitable guideline for grazing rights and land ownership, as well as providing robust legal frameworks for resource access and impartial dispute resolution, is a possible solution to the ongoing farmers-herders clashes.
Ayobami Joshua, a policy and research analyst, said addressing the worsening insecurity issues in key food-producing states involves strengthening local security structures.
Joshua urged the government to adopt local policing and intelligence gathering in rural areas affected by banditry.
He noted that local actors understand the terrain and can provide early warnings about threats more effectively than federal forces.
Also, a report by SBM titled ‘A Threat to National Stability,’ calls for intensifying efforts to disarm non-state actors and control the proliferation of sophisticated weaponry.
According to the report, to cut back on the killings of farmers, the federal government must ensure that perpetrators of violence, regardless of their background, are swiftly and impartially prosecuted to end impunity and restore public confidence in the justice system.
The report added that the government must support and facilitate genuine, impartial dialogue and peace-building mechanisms at local, state, and federal levels to rebuild trust and foster peaceful coexistence between farming and pastoralist communities.
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For climate change, experts say the country needs bold transformative actions to boost the food system and support to ensure that resources reach food producers across the value chain.
They also urge farmers to adopt climate-smart agricultural practices while using emerging technologies.
Kareem Yusuf, general manager of sustainability software at IBM, stated in a previous interview with BusinessDay that “emerging technologies are a critical tool in our arsenal for curbing the progression of climate change and managing its effects.”
