Recently, in Paris, “Crush them” was the declared aim of the war pronounced against Boko Haram after the Africa Summit attended by the presidents of Benin Republic, Cameroon, Chad, Niger and Nigeria.
President Goodluck Jonathan said “Boko Haram is no longer a local terrorist group, it is an al-Qaeda operation; it is an al-Qaeda of west Africa; without west African countries coming together we will not crush these terrorists.”
Unfortunately, a “crush them” counterinsurgency (COIN) strategy is bound to fail. Rather, the single best predictor of a successful COIN strategy is prevention of insurgents’ access to intelligence, sanctuary, personnel, materiel and finance.
Christopher Paul, Colin P. Clarke, and Beth Grill authors of Victory Has a Thousand Fathers in an analysis of 20 counterinsurgency strategies conclude there is no empirical evidence to support the effectiveness of a “crush them (repression)” approach. In other words, a crush them approach is a bad COIN.
Out of the 30 counterinsurgency cases studied 11 of them were in African countries. COIN campaigns in Uganda, Algeria, Senegal and Sierra Leone were deemed successful.
All four countries adopted an average of 11 out of 15 good COIN approaches e.g. strategic communication; reduction of tangible insurgent support; maintenance of legitimacy in the area of conflict; avoidance of disproportionate use of force or other illegitimate applications of force; positive relations with population in conflict area; improvements in infrastructure or development or property reform etc.
Insurgents thrive where the police, military and security services are disorganised. They flourish in vast ungoverned areas with porous borders that provide sanctuary and allow arms to proliferate. Joint surveillance, sharing of intelligence, tighter border controls, better training and equipment should help.
But a regional COIN strategy that will curb insurgents’ threat to West and Central Africa requires a combination of strategies – social, economic and military.
Economic insecurity fuels insurgency. Socio-political and economic reforms are a major inoculation against extremism. For instance, making sure the privatised electricity industry works will have an impact on Niger Republic.
Investments in schools, hospitals, irrigation, agriculture and agribusiness coupled with more action on promoting inter-regional trade will provide a better alternative for the teeming youth population in the region.
Tayo Fagbule
