A review of Rivers political firmament and defection of Gov Sim Fubara and an attempt to interpret his new confidence in his gait
The political equation or structure in Rivers State seems set to change. This is not just because Gov Sim Fubara has quietly moved to the All Progressives Congress (APC) from the Peoples Democratic Party that seems marooned in the state, but because of his new swagger and statements unofficially ascribed to him.
This has many to ask: Has the lion escaped from the cage? The parable refers to a common parable of a lion that has been in a cage for so long it becomes accustomed to its limitations. ‘When the cage door is opened, the lion is afraid to leave, having developed “learned helplessness” and a fear of the unknown. Many say this would relate to overcoming self-imposed limitations and stepping out of one’s comfort zone. They say it encourages individuals to recognize their potential and seize opportunities for freedom and growth, rather than remaining trapped by fear or habit.’
Fubara was a soft-spoken civil servant who ended as the state’s Accountant General before his then boss, then Gov Nyesom Wike, asked him to dust up and become the next governor. In fact, Wike has severally boasted of buying the form and handing it to him, as well as funding and campaigning to install Fubara.
Soon after, both father and son fell out and a monumental political crisis that led to a state of emergency and six months’ suspension erupted.
All through the upheaval, Fubara appeared to listen to the counsel of a section of the elders of the state who saw President Bola Ahmed Tinubu as backing Wike, the FCT Minister. The governor and most people of the state thus saw Tinubu as part of the problems of the state.
When his recall was looking bleak, some political giants seemed to help lead him to Aso Rock for consultations. From that moment, the harpless governor seemed to begin to develop teeth.
Now, since he came back on September 18, 2025, he has threaded softly to the extent that he has not appointed his cabinet, nor has he submitted his 2026 budget, despite genuine excuses of waiting for the House of Assembly complex to be completed.
Signs that the silence in Rivers State was not ordinary came when the House of Assembly, stuffed with Wike’s loyalists and fighters, woke up to accuse the governor of doing nothing when the education sector in the state was dying. Fubara seemed to understand the meaning of the outburst by Martin Amaewhule, the speaker.
He tried to explain himself but next, 17 members of the House defected to the APC. If the state was under the governor as leader, it would have been the governor that would have led the lawmakers in defection.
Fubara seemed to also interpret this, and ran to Aso Rock where a secret meeting was said to have been held.
The Punch reported that Fubara held a closed-door meeting with President Tinubu at the State House, Abuja, last Monday, saying their correspondent sighted the governor walking towards the President’s office at 5:01 p.m., dressed in a deep-blue long-sleeve shirt, black trousers, and a black flat cap.
The report went on to say minutes earlier, Francis Nwifuru, Ebonyi State governor, had been ushered in for a separate engagement. “Fubara’s visit comes amid speculation that he may defect from the PDP to the APC following political turbulence in Rivers State.
Upon return to Rivers State, Fubara began to walk like a man who found new confidence and surge of energy. He has not made a direct statement but his men are saying he has defected to the President’s party.
Read also: Fubara receives APC membership card, promises support for Tinubu’s re-election in 2027
Arrows resume flying:
Fubara tried to brief his followers on what transpired in Abuja. He made more elaborate statements while commissioning a road project. He thus seemed to step on hot wire. On Thursday, December 11, 2025, the speaker of the House of Assembly briefed journalists on Fubara’s comments during a road commissioning. The speaker, Amaewhule, speaking on behalf of the lawmakers, said Gov Fubara lied when he said he had not met with them.
Amaewhule said the FCT minister, Nyesom Wike, following the directive of the president, summoned a meeting between them and the governor after the emergency rule. Speaker said the lawmakers have met with the governor twice. First in the house of the FCT minister and second in the house of Ferdinand Alabraba. “Yet he has failed on the teams of the meetings.”
They described the comments of the governor as unnecessary, condemnable and that which they said was capable of setting the stage for another round of crisis in Rivers State
Amaewhule and company accused the governor of disparaging the person of the FCT minister through his comments, and accused Gov Fubara of spending and awarding contracts to his cronies without seeking ratification from the house of Assembly.
They insisted that the out-gone Sole administrator left N600bn behind; accused the governor of plotting to use Rivers funds to buy off Assembly members though the Assembly members were allegedly not for sale.
They also also expressed commitment to serving the interest of Rivers people and the peace process that was mid-wifed by the president.
Fubara’s new confidence:
Many observers have tried to interpret the governor’s apparent confidence. One of those close to him said it may stem primarily from his recent defection to the APC, which secures him federal backing. He is also said to be basking in the continued support of the people of the state in what is termed organic support.
Fubara is said to have stated that he is wiser this time and that he suffered most in the Rivers political crisis. Some said he said he would not want to make the mistake he made before. Many seem not to fully understand his parables.
Another factor of his sign of confidence is popular support. He has consistently cited the support and prayers of the people of Rivers State, as well as various community and political groups, as a major source of strength and motivation to focus on governance despite distractions.
In the height of the fight with his godfather, many groups emerged to fight for him. They even prepared a table for him in the APP from where they captured the state’s LGA until the sole administrator came and scattered them.
These created the Sim Grassroots Movement (SGM) which was said to have overtaken Wike’s Grassroots Democratic Movement (GDM) in most of the 23 LGAs.
The stuff they SGM was made of was demonstrated in Andoni one of the days where they shut down the LGA. The likes of Lazarus G. Nteogwuile, Norisia Wilifred Pepple, Golden Ekprikpo Spiff, and Paul Ogodo vowed to back Fubara to the end.
People say the support was intact despite the bullets from state of emergency and other efforts to dismantle the governor’s support base.
Another power source to Fubara is said to be his focus on governance and projects because he has lined up 10 top projects to commission. This tour of the state for projects are said to be able to rekindle the passion from the communities. He has also planned to present 2026 budget which may focus on infrastructure and social services. He may prioritize the welfare of the people. Many say Fubara aims to counter political narratives questioning his administration’s performance and demonstrate his commitment to delivering the dividends of democracy.
Another source of confidence is said to be political realignment whereby his move to the APC is seen by his camp as a strategic political solution that realigns the state’s political structure and solidifies his position with the dominant national power center.
Finally, everyone seems afraid of the judiciary in the land because of obvious reasons. Fubara is said to have emphasized his respect for the court rulings and compliance with the presidential peace process as a sign of maturity and wisdom, which he believes has put his administration on a solid legal and political footing.
Read also: Tension returns in Rivers as Amaewhule accuses Fubara of unauthorized spending
What Fubara allegedly told his followers after Aso Rock visit:
One political commentator, Babatunde Olorunkemi Adenuga, reported what he said Fubara after briefing his followers in Port Harcourt. His source said: “Following my visit to President Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu in which I briefed him on the situation in Rivers State, I had a meaningful discussion with Rivers State stakeholders at the Government House, Port Harcourt.
“We agreed that we have every reason to identify with Mr. President as I wouldn’t still be here as the Governor without him.
“We also decided to leave the PDP, our previous platform, and join the APC as Mr. President has been supportive all through”.
The observer said, in the whole speech, Fubara never referenced his political godfather, the former Governor and current Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, saying it was an indication that Wike was neither consulted nor his approval needed before the action was taken.
He said Fubara kept emphasizing that his political saviour remains Tinubu himself, and vowed to support Tinubu with everything in him.
The report said few hours after the announcement last, Fubara played host to a statewide rally, allegedly well attended as a show of force, a show of his followers and support base. “Both the stakeholders meeting where he announced his defection last night and the rally currently holding do not have Wike’s boys or followers in attendance, including House of Assembly members loyal to the FCT Minister, an indication that all is still not well politically with their supposedly ‘father and son’ relationship as long Rivers State politics is concerned.”
He went on: “Information available from the political corridors in Rivers State has it that Fubara has now become President Tinubu’s adopted political son, and do not need to pass through Wike to see the President any longer, a development that could be described as an ‘uppercut’ to the FCT Minister’s power game. And Wike’s unusual quietness in the past few weeks seems to indicate that all is not well with the political temperature around him.”
The report said Fubara is obviously consolidating on his new found Abuja front and is subtly gaining grounds and holding same for Tinubu and himself ahead of 2027 elections.
“Recall that at the Abuja front, Wike is at loggerheads with the powers that be in the country, due to his approach to politics and administrative duties as the FCT Minister.
“Wike has stepped on very big toes including the most dreaded military cabals in the country, a development that has made him lose much friendship and goodwill at the seat of power.
Analysts are already adding the mathematical numbers to figure out President Tinubu’s game plan to capture Rivers State through a more stable Gov Fubara as against having to contend with Wike who has been reportedly giving the President a lot of issues and political pressure.”
The report quoted a political analyst, Emeka Mba, as having analyzed the defection of Gov Fubara from PDP to APC, and had observed thus: “If you observe the atmosphere in Rivers state now, you will notice the entire populace across political divide is genuinely happy for the Governor. There is a genuine breath of fresh air. Fubara is genuinely and organically loved by the people.”
An eye on 2027?
Every calculation seems to end in 2027 talks. Fubara appeared finished after state of emergency and all the efforts to scrap his structure. He was believed to score zero in the new LGA election arrangement and lost out in the House of Assembly. Yet, he may not be totally out.
Olalekan Ige, a strong analyst in the state, wrote in his facebook column thus: “Don’t let anybody deceive you that Gov Fubara will not run for second term in 2027. As at today, outside of Minister Nyesom Wike, only Gov Fubara can form structure in 24 hours, across every ward and LGA.”
Many say he has told his supporters not to lose all hopes. Ige added verve by saying: “Gov Fubara successfully captured some structures of Minister Wike; Neutrals may tip in his favour; He is now the biggest APC politician in Rivers State; He can singlehandedly fund his guber campaign; He seems to have found his way into Abuja, unhindered and unrestricted; He has the full assurances of APC national chairman as at today; He is now able to walk through some corridors without being introduced or chaperoned.”
Many say the coming days will be interesting.
Has Wike said anything all this while? Observers say he has the Sahara Reports scandal plus the Yerima issue to handle, but the reactions of the Amaewhule group in the House of Assembly seem to show that a fight is possible.
Conclusion:
The unending political conflict in Rivers State seems only to start, after a short break. None of the lions in the fight may be in a cage anymore. The time for the fight may just be – now!
