The Democratic Republic of Congo was edging towards crisis on Sunday as the electoral commission postponed the announcement of presidential results and the international community stepped up pressure on Joseph Kabila, the incumbent, to cede power.
Tension has increased after the respected Catholic Church said there had been a clear winner of the presidential poll a week ago, in what diplomats said referred to a likely victory for opposition candidate Martin Fayulu.
Speaking to the Financial Times, Mr Fayulu warned the electoral commission to publish accurate results, saying “nobody denies that I am leading the polls”. The former ExxonMobil executive, a relative unknown before campaigning began last November, said he backed the call by the Catholic bishops’ conference, known as Cenco.
“We completely agree with Cenco’s statement because everybody knows the results,” he said.
Mr Fayulu also welcomed what he implied was growing international pressure on Mr Kabila to accept that his chosen successor, Emmanuel Shadary, had lost. “It is very encouraging that all over the world they are following closely what is going on in Congo and making some strong statements so that the truth will come out,” he said.
Last Thursday, the US state department warned the electoral commission, widely believed to be aligned with the government, not to distort results. “There are moments in every nation’s history when individuals and political leaders step forward and do the right thing. This is one of those moments,” it said.
Washington hinted strongly that it accepted Cenco’s verdict that Mr Shadary, known as Mr Kabila’s “dauphin”, had been defeated.
Peter Pham, US special envoy for the African Great Lakes region, said: “There is an old dictum that posits that the voice of the people is the voice of God; here rather we have a case where the ‘vox Dei’ points the way to the true ‘vox populi’.”
In expectation of possible popular unrest should Mr Shadary be declared the winner regardless of the true count, both the US and the Congolese government have deployed troops in the past few days.
Donald Trump, US president, said he had dispatched 80 soldiers to nearby Gabon to protect US citizens and property should violence break out.
In a letter to Congress, Mr Trump said he might deploy additional forces to Gabon or to Congo itself.
The Congolese government has also been sending thousands of troops around the country, particularly to opposition strongholds, in what observers say could be a preparation to quash anti-government protests. Last week, the government shut down internet services, ostensibly to prevent the dissemination of false results.
By law, the electoral commission is the only body allowed to release election results and the government has warned journalists against publishing parallel counts.
Cenco’s results, which diplomats said showed Mr Fayulu with what appeared to be an unassailable lead, were based on information compiled from its 40,000 election observers.
“We all know that they are endorsing Fayulu,” said Barnabe Kikaya, an adviser to Mr Kabila and spokesperson for Mr Shadary. “It is a very irresponsible position that the Cenco has taken.”
Cenco and the Congolese government could not be reached when the FT sought comment.
Washington has lobbied African officials to join its call for an accurate count, diplomats said. Moussa Faki Mahamat, chair for the African Union Commission, said in a tweet: “Respect of the election results is crucial.”
However, according to an internal report seen by the FT, China, Russia and South Africa blocked a proposal at a closed-door session of the UN Security Council by the US, France, the UK and others that pushed for a joint-statement on the Congolese election.
“This is a critical moment for Congo,” said Ida Sawyer, a Congo expert and deputy Africa director at Human Rights Watch. “The African Union and all international partners should step up now — before the results are announced — to exercise maximum diplomatic pressure.”
Congo has never had a transfer of power via the ballot box. The country is a strategic producer of cobalt and other metals crucial for the electronics and electric car industries.
Despite low levels of public trust in the electoral commission, Congolese people queued for hours in huge numbers to exercise their vote on December 30. The US praised the people’s determination to make their “voices heard” in spite of severe obstacles, including closed polling stations and the outright scrapping of elections in three districts.
