As Africa’s largest economy, now recovered from its recent recession, Nigeria is brimming with economic potential. It is on track to become the third most populous country in the world by 2050, overtaking the US. That Nigeria appears just behind Yemen and Syria and ahead of Somalia on the International Rescue Committee’s 2019 Emergency Watchlist may, therefore, come as a surprise. The armed insurgency in the north-east, brought into the spotlight by the Chibok schoolgirl kidnapping by Boko Haram five years ago, continues.
Two million people have fled their homes within Nigeria and to neighbouring countries. Our prediction is that violence will intensify in 2019. Even in recent weeks, local branches of Isis have been retaking territory from the Nigerian Army. Less noticed internationally is the communal violence between farmers and herders in central areas of Nigeria. Driven by factors including environmental degradation caused by climate change, and new state laws on grazing rights, by July these conflicts had killed more people in 2018 than the violence in the north-east.
There are yet more conflicts affecting Nigeria simultaneously. In the north-west, the government regularly deploys the military to combat banditry. In the oil-rich Niger delta there is persistent militancy and in the east of the country there is renewed Biafran separatist sentiment. Ongoing violence combined with underlying fragility are likely to trigger food shortages and increased risk of disease in 2019, in a country in which tens of millions live below the poverty line.
Nigeria may be catching up with India in terms of absolute size of population, but it has already overtaken India to become the country with the world’s largest number of people living in extreme poverty. Nigeria’s elections in February and March may also have a destabilising impact. It is unclear whether President Muhammadu Buhari will be re-elected, but what is clear is that there will be intense competition for influence between regional and national level power brokers around the polls.
This risks leading to violence but also diverting government attention from ongoing conflicts. This should matter to all of us. In 2015, global leaders committed to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals, a transformative set of goals to improve human wellbeing and reshape our world by 2030. But IRC’s recent report showed that people caught in conflict in places like Nigeria are being left behind and, if their situation is not addressed, the SDGs cannot be met. What does this mean for Nigeria’s government and its international partners this year? First, the humanitarian needs of Nigeria’s growing population must be met. This is an investment not just in Nigeria’s people but in its future.
Despite the risks involved in delivering humanitarian support — aid workers were kidnapped and even killed in Nigeria in 2018 — it must continue. Take, for example, girls’ education. Despite evidence that educated girls are more likely to have fewer and healthier children, and to go on to become contributors to the economy in their own right, 60 per cent of children out of school in Nigeria are girls. Dozens have been forced to act as suicide bombers by armed groups. Crucial interventions like the IRC’s education programme for 62,000 children in the north-east help traumatised girls and boys to go back to school, supported by the UK’s Department for International Development.
Second, despite the challenges, it is essential that not just humanitarian aid agencies such as the IRC but also the Nigerian government is able to provide for its people and to operate effectively wherever there is need. This means supporting democracy and development by building citizen-state relations through fair systems for tax collection to raise revenue, investing this in effective state services such as healthcare, and advancing the clampdown on the corruption that undermines public confidence. Political leadership is obviously key but so are donors with the expertise to help drive progress.
Third, Nigeria’s growing, energetic and entrepreneurial population is hungry for economic opportunity that will, in turn, drive growth. In a country where so many are displaced by conflict, economic opportunities are needed in both host communities and for people displaced within them. Unemployment has doubled since 2015; great talents and potential are being wasted. This is a job for the government, responsible private sector actors, donors and their delivery partners. For example, with Citi, through the Citi Foundation’s Pathways to Progress initiative, the IRC provides training, mentoring and grants to young entrepreneurs in north-east Nigeria, and we are already seeing programme participants convert business ideas into profitable start-ups that are benefiting local economies.
Short-term costs are quickly translating into long-term economic gains. This year will be a crucial test for Nigeria, one of Africa’s rising stars. Nigeria is too big to fail but it can only prosper if human wellbeing and inclusivity are at the heart of its growth. Feargal O’Connell is the International Rescue Committee’s Country Director in Nigeria.
