Nigeria may soon see its maize grain come under pressure as drought hits South Africa’s major growing areas of the crop this season.
South Africa, the largest maize producer on the continent, is predicted to have a decline in its 2019 production as dry conditions hit main growing provinces in the country, its grain association says.
If this happens, Nigeria will experience a repeat of what happened in the 2016 maize season when foreign traders and local millers scrambled for its maize due to the havoc caused by armyworm infestation on South Africa’s farms.
Maize prices in Nigeria then rose to an all-time high of N180,000 per metric tonne.
“Lots of traders from neighbouring countries have always come to mop up our grains especially maize. So with the drought in South Africa, we are likely to see more pressure,” Victor Iyama, president, Federation of Agricultural Commodity of Nigeria (FACAN), said.
“Nigeria should start looking at boosting its own production to meet local and export demand. It takes only three month to grow maize and we have both the resources and the weather condition to do that right now,” Iyama said.
He said Nigeria can avert the pressure on maize by putting measures in place that will ramp up production.
Nigeria, Africa’s second largest maize producer after South Africa, is churning out 10.5 million metric tonnes of maize per annum with a demand of 15 million metric tonnes, leaving a supply-demand gap of 4.5 million MT annually, data from the Federal Ministry of Agriculture show.
Maize is the leading cereal grown in Nigeria, closely followed by sorghum and rice.
Bello Abubakar Annur, national president of Maize Association of Nigeria (MAN), said that traders from neighbouring countries have always purchased from Nigeria to fill their demand-supply deficits.
However, he noted that if the drought in South Africa persists, there is likely going to be more pressure on the Nigerian grain and prices will rise.
“It would be good news for farmers if the Nigerian maize grains come under some pressure as prices will definitely increase. The prices right now are low at N80,000 per metric tonne,” Annur said.
As a result, poultry farmers, producers of feeds, flour, noodles, biscuits, brewers, starch, confectioners, among others, who use maize as a raw material at factories, would be the worst-hit as it will shut up their production cost, experts say.
“Nigerian maize farmers will be incentivised to grow more maize,” Annur said.
Speaking on the country’s maize projection for the 2019 season, Annur said that the Nigerian maize association anticipated the country’s maize production to reach about 25,000MT to meet local demand and also fill the gaps in neighbouring African countries.
Extreme weather conditions such as drought, storms, intense rainfall are affecting the ecosystem on which farmers depend. This is affecting production and reducing yields per hectare of most grains.
“Climate change is become a critical issue for farmers and the impact on agriculture is becoming intense,” AfricaFarmer Mogaji, chief executive officer, X-Ray Consulting Limited, said.
“It will be a major determinant of food production this year and Africa’s vulnerability to climate change is closely linked to the continent’s low adaptive capacity and increasing dependence on resources sensitive to changes in the climate,” Mogaji said.
As at the time of writing, a metric tonne of maize sold for N100,000, according to Novus Agro, a commodity tracker.
Josephine Okojie
