Analysts at the Financial Derivatives company led by renowned economist Bismarck Rewane have prepared an interesting analysis of voting patterns in last month’s presidential election suggesting Nigeria’s poor may have been ranged against their richer or more endowed neighbours.
The report is premised on the fact that Nigeria’s middle class has been almost squeezed out of existence and the few rich continue to bilk the system.
According to the report, “our analysis reveals very interesting trends. These are anecdotal and empirical data showing that the turnout was highest in the states where the APC won and lowest in the PDP states.
“The APC won a plural majority and were supported by the very poor and emotional voters. The average income per capita in the APC states is $1,545.
“It becomes more glaring when it is APC minus Lagos state (the income per capita now falls to $1,353). On the other hand, the PDP states accounted for an average income per capita of $2,585.
“The average FAAC per state in the PDP states is N88.24bn. Whilst in the APC states it is N55.79bn. Again, if you take Lagos away from the APC states it falls sharply to N52.39bn.
“More interesting is the fact that of the 10 states with the highest WAEC scores, 6 are PDP states (Abia, Imo, Bayelsa, Delta, Enugu and Ebonyi).”
The analysis also shows how voter sentiment in states with high unemployment and inflation differs from the others. The very poor states are more politically active than the poor states.
According to the economists, “Buhari must deliver rapid and sustainable economic growth to the impatient and emotional voters of 2019. The economic agenda is clear. Nigeria must grow at 4% in 2020/2021 or will languish for the next 5-10 years.”
