As President Buhari hints at a possible cabinet reshuffle early in the New Year, players in the business community say that the President would need to go beyond changing his ministers if the aim is to boost economic growth in 2017.
Nigeria plans a cabinet shake-up that could see ten ministers booted out in 2017.
However, it may affect only eight ministers, given that two minsters will be appointed to fill the void created by James Ocholi, the late minister of State for Labour and Productivity and that of Amina Mohammed, minister of environment, who is going to take up the position of Deputy Secretary-General of the United Nations (UN).
Some politics watchers say a cabinet reshuffle may do little to arrest Nigeria’s economic crisis because the President has a statist mindset that seems to be holding back some of his ministers who could have performed better.
Wunmi Iledare, director of the Emerald Energy Institute, University of Port Harcourt, Rivers State, however says ministers like Babatunde Fashola and Ibe Kachikwu have shown that the president’s perceived mindset cannot be an excuse for non-performance.
Fashola is the minister for power, works and housing, while Kachikwu holds sway as the minister of state for petroleum.
“They are the most visible in terms of work done,” Iledare says. “What I expect Buhari to do, is convert the current minister of state for petroleum to the minister of petroleum at the federal level.”
Chuks Nwani, an energy lawyer and vice president, Powerhouse International Limited, is convinced that a cabinet reshuffle will be of no impact if ministers are afraid to go against the wish of President Buhari.
“I do not think the slow pace of things is because the cabinet is not working, my view is that when the president was elected, he had this aura and his cabinet are looking at him for direction rather than are constricted from acting independently.
“Unfortunately, Buhari is not an expert in economics, and until he is willing to be liberal and allow his ministers to work without being tele-guided and micro-managed, there may be no real development,” Nwani added.
Kyari Bukar, chairman of the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) says that the proposed cabinet reshuffle is an opportunity for Buhari to pick ministers of his choice instead of those that may have been dictated by the party when he came to power.
“This time, he may need to interview the ministers himself,” Bukar says.
Buhari has attracted widespread criticism after Nigeria’s economic output contracted by 2.24 percent in the first nine months of 2016, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). It is the first time the country recorded negative growth since 1991.
Inflation has accelerated to an 11-year of 18.4 percent while unemployment cemented a six year-high of 13.9 percent in the third quarter of 2016.
The economy’s bad shape has made life difficult for many Nigerians.
But Muda Yusuf, director-general, Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI), says the most important task for the President, desperate to restore economic growth, is to form an economic team that will include outsiders.
“My view is that only Buhari can assess the mandate given to the ministers and how each has been able to deliver them,” Yusuf adds.
“There is a need for an economic team. Just as we have independent directors in companies, so should we have independent members in the team, who will not be encumbered by the system,” he further adds.
The oil sector, on which Nigeria thrives, contracted by 22 percent in the third quarter of 2016 and has dealt a blow on general economic output.
After gorging itself on petrodollars for over two decades, the country is desperately searching for a new growth model and one sector that has often been touted to drive economic diversification is agriculture.
The agriculture sector may not need a new minister, says Sanni Dangote, president of the Nigeria Agribusiness Group (NABG).
“Although a cabinet re-shuffle could trigger some momentum in the economy, the agriculture minister has worked out a lot of plans for the sector in the past one year and 2017 is the time for the execution, so he should remain to accomplish them,” Dangote says; adding that “A new minister will cause a setback for the sector.”
Agriculture has been one of the high-fliers in an all-round bleak economy and Audu Ogbeh is its minister.
The sector grew 4.54 percent (year-on-year) in the third quarter of 2016, even as other critical sectors like manufacturing, construction, real estate, Accommodation and Industry wallow in recession.
Tunde Oyelola, chairman, Manufacturers Association of Nigeria Export Group, says the economic malaise is not only about individuals in ministries, but the need for an economic team.
“The results are not coming and it will be disingenuous to blame individual ministers. You do not know what they are passing through. So it is the president who has the facts and knows what to do,” Oyelola says.
Meanwhile, stakeholders in the maritime sector are rooting for the appointment of technocrats in key sectors.
Tony Anakebe, managing director of Gold Link Investment Limited, said that the nation’s port industry needs technocrats who understand the place of the seaport in the economy.”
Also, while John Ojikutu, Secretary-General, Aviation Round Table, sees no need for a cabinet reshuffle in the aviation sector, Jimmy Omotosho, chairman, Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors (RICS), Nigerian Group, begs to differ, as far as the housing sector is concerned.
Pai Obanya, emeritus professor of education at University of Ibadan thinks there is need for an overhaul in education.
“What we want to see in the education sector is an educationist as the minister of education. It does not have to be a professor of education; a school principal would do, provided the person is an educationist.
“This should apply to other ministries as well; each should be headed by a technocrat and the sum of this would lead to a much more functional government. Again, I want to say we must look at it in the right perspective,” Obanya said.
LOLADE AKINMURELE
Additional reporting by Chuka Uroko, Kelechi Ewuzie, Isaac Anyaogu, Odinaka Anudu, Amaka Ewuzie, Josephine Okojie, Ifeoma Okeke & Stephen Onyekwelu
