The Federal Government, after a 35-day lockdown to contain the spread of the deadly coronavirus, began to gradually reopen the economy on May 4, 2020. The economic pain of the restrictions was becoming acute and unbearable for Nigerian households.
Almost one month after easing the five-week lockdown in the Federal Capital Territory, Lagos and Ogun States, the economy is still constrained by the restriction on interstate travel and a nationwide curfew. The country, meanwhile, continues to record rising number of COVID-19 cases. As of Sunday, Nigeria has recorded 9,855 confirmed cases of COVID-19, with 2,856 recoveries and 273 deaths.
Due to the measures targeted at flattening the coronavirus curve in Africa’s most populous nation, analysts say the economy is under risk of contraction as a lot of businesses and industries have been disrupted and an unemployment rate, already at a high level, has increased.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NSB), Nigeria’s weakest GDP growth in one year, at 1.87 percent in Q1 2020, reflects “the earliest effects of the COVID-19 disruption”.
Like other Africa countries, the Nigerian government is taking immediate steps to strengthen the health system and restart the economy that has been battered due to the pandemic that has accelerated trends such as digitisation, market consolidation, and regional cooperation, with important new opportunities – for example, to boost local manufacturing, formalise small businesses, and upgrade urban infrastructure.
As Nigeria edges towards a full reopening of its economy, global consulting firm, McKinsey & Company, has suggested ways of doing so while safeguarding lives and livelihoods. McKinsey’s strategies, from its global and Africa analysis, suggest that the government can follow a three-step process in designing local response measures to release restrictions in a calibrated way tailored to the country’s unique circumstances.
Define a tiered set of local response measures
The first step cited by McKinsey towards finding a smart approach to reopening economy in a calibrated way that brings key industries back into operation while ensuring safe ways of working is to define a tiered set of local response measures, from the least restrictive to the most restrictive.
According to the New York-based firm, each tier would include measures to protect both the general population and high-risk populations (the elderly and people who are immuno-compromised), and would also specify which sectors can open and operate.
“Depending on a country’s geographic diversity, several tiers can be established; South Africa, for example, has implemented a five-tier system,” it said.
It said a four-tier system, for example, could include measures such as Tier 1 (the least restrictive), which would entail no restrictions beyond physical distancing and would allow all sectors to operate, and Tier 2 could involve closure of schools and the prohibition of mass gatherings, while high-risk populations would be encouraged to stay at home.
“A broad set of sectors would be allowed to operate, such as construction, mining, manufacturing, banking, and retail – provided they can comply with health and safety protocols such as the use of personal protective equipment (PPE) and temperature checks. But sectors at high risk of transmission would be closed or restricted; those might include education, transport, food services, and entertainment,” McKinsey said.
Tier 3 could involve restrictions on travel between regions of the country for the general population, and mandatory stay-at-home directives for the at-risk population. A narrower set of sectors would be allowed to operate, including agriculture and information and communication technology (ICT).
For Tier 4 (the most restrictive), McKinsey said it could entail a full lockdown on movement for the general population, and quarantine encouraged for those at risk. In this situation, it explained that only essential sectors would be allowed to operate, including health and public administration.
‘Triage’ regions
The second step highlighted by McKinsey is to “triage” regions or subregions across the country to determine which tier each of the geographic areas would fall into.
“The triage process would be dynamic and would incorporate new data as they emerge,” it said.
It added that it would be based on two criteria. First, the severity of virus spread in a region, a measure which takes into account the extent of ongoing transmissions as well as the severity of cases should there be high transmission. And the readiness of the public health system in the region – both the ability of the system to test, trace, and isolate cases and contacts, and its medical capacity to treat severe cases.
McKinsey suggested that the regions should be split into the Y and X-axis. Y-axis should cover the severity of virus spread, considering both the day-to-day growth in case counts as well as the clinical severity of cases (as influenced by factors such as demographics and comorbidities in the population).
The readiness of the health system (on the X-axis) can be assessed using metrics such as availability of critical hospital supplies and critical-care beds, testing rates, test positivity rates, contacts traced successfully, and confirmed COVID-19 cases isolated.
Monitor progress continuously
The third and ongoing step by McKinsey is to monitor progress continuously, and according to the recommendations by the consulting firm, once regions are triaged and measures are implemented, continuous assessments will be required to ensure that these measures are being adhered to.
“Governments would need to identify the triggers or thresholds for moving a region into a less restrictive tier – or a more restrictive one. In this regard, it is critical that decision making is fact-based and data-driven, with a constant focus on safeguarding both lives and livelihoods,” it said.
McKinsey also cited testing scale-up and experiment with shielding as some of the measures that should be considered by the government.
“Scale-up testing and tracing. In addition to testing, those with symptoms and their contacts, more widespread testing should ideally extend to high-risk groups such as healthcare workers. — Experiment with shielding for high-risk populations. Shielding high-risk populations amidst broader re-opening can help protect lives,” it said.
It added that governments can test and deploy different approaches – for example, by providing support and incentives for the affected populations to stay at home, or creating quarantine spaces directly within or adjacent to a community, where high-risk groups are relocated temporarily to minimise contact with other residents.
