A storm is gathering over All Progressives Congress (APC) hold on power and it is threatening to sweep the party away into opposition. As it was expected, Aminu Tambuwal, the governor of Sokoto State, this afternoon, became the third governor within a week to decamp from the fold of the APC.
Rumours that Tambuwal was on the verge of decamping from the APC has been on before. His defection is said to be in connection with his presidential ambition which he seeks to pursue under the umbrella of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). Announcing his defection, Tambuwal fired his first shots at the Buhari Presidency urging Nigerians to vote out ‘ineffective Buhari.’
The same day, Tambuwal resigned his membership of the ruling APC, Bolaji Abdullahi, the spokesman of the APC also announced that he is resigning his membership of APC. In terse press release, Abdullahi announced “In view of recent political developments in the country and within the All Progressives Congress (APC), I have decided to resign my position as the National Publicity Secretary as well as my membership of the party with effect from today.”
Abdullahi may also be heading for the PDP, a party he has in the last two years castigated at every opportunity. It only reflects the dark storms over the future of APC.
These dark storms got to its peak on July 31 when Bukola Saraki, who is the third most powerful man in the APC also announced his exit from the party, a party he helped bring to power in 2015.
But Saraki has had a troubled relationship with the APC. Soon after his emergence as senate president, against the wish of his party, Saraki was charged to court for false asset declaration. That case dragged on for three years and all the way to the Supreme Court until his acquittal on 6 July.
Saraki’s acquittal could be described as his biggest political break, a few months to the 2019 elections and prepared the ground for his eventual defection from a party that has obviously not been welcoming of him as a person and also his apparent political ambitions.
Speaking shortly after his acquittal, Saraki described President Muhammadu Buhari’s war against corruption “as insincere, vindictive and targeted at political enemies.”
“As I said in my first appearance at the CCT, this is a politically motivated case. The case was trumped up in the first instance because of my emergence as the President of the Senate, against the wishes of certain forces. Ordinarily, I doubt anyone would be interested in the asset declaration form I filled over 15 years ago.” Saraki said.
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Saraki did not leave the APC alone. The governor of Kwara State, Abdulfatah Ahmed, simultaneously also announced his exit from the APC. It was not surprising because where Saraki goes, Kwara goes. But unlike Saraki, Ahmed not only announced his exit from the APC, but he also announced that he is moving to the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
“Following due consultations with the people and in response to calls by major stakeholder groups in the state, Kwara State Governor, Alhaji Abdulfatah Ahmed today defected to the People’s Democratic Party(PDP), having realized that the All Progressive Congress (APC) can longer serve as a platform for achieving the aspirations and expectations of his people,” a statement from the governor’s media aide said.
Saraki is also expected to formally join the PDP, a party that is beginning to see its fortunes revived after seeing it dip with the loss of the Ekiti State elections. Since losing the Ekiti State elections, the PDP has gained three governors. This resurgence in fortunes may just be what the PDP needs to fight back to power in 2019.
With Saraki’s defection, APC is now effectively the minority party in the Senate. PDP will have 56 Senators to the APC’s 49. But things may even get worse for the APC going forward. In the House of Representatives, more reps are expected to defect from the ruling party after 37 of them defected last week. Rumours have it that the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Yakubu Dogara is one of those who is also likely to announce his exit from the APC.
Timothy Golu (PDP-Plateau) told BusinessDay on 31 July that the Speaker is at liberty to announce his defection “at his convenience,” despite the fact that the House is on recess.
“It is members that are doing their own presently. “It is the Speaker that will announce his own defection when the time comes. So he can choose to announce anytime. When we resume he can do it. There are so many people that are coming to declare their defection. Some of them are pressurized to stay back, but let’s see whether their conditions will be addressed?”
While noting that the defection of the 37 members from APC was the first phase, Golu observed that other APC members who had expressed interests in announcing their defection to PDP and other political parties “were not in town.”
“Some wanted to defect on Wednesday and Thursday. As you know, we were forced to embark on recess in solidarity with the Senate because of the security threat on the National Assembly. Once a chamber was attacked, the other chamber is also attacked,” the Plateau lawmaker said.
According to him, some of the aggrieved members of APC have declared their intentions at their respective constituencies several months before formalizing it through a letter to the leadership of the House. Golu added that some of the members who had earlier expressed intentions to move to other parties especially PDP, were pressurized to step down their decision.
He however affirmed that some of the defecting APC members are being intimidated by the Federal Government, with the view to prevail on them to jettison the defection plans.
But speaking with BusinessDay in a telephone chat, Abdulrasak Namdas, chairman, House Committee on Media and Public Affairs, denied knowledge of the alleged planned defection of Speaker Dogara.
He however noted that the news about Dogara’s defection has been trending but noted the information cannot be substantiated by those peddling the rumour.
“I am not aware of the defection. But the news has been trending over the time. You can quote me on that,” the Adamawa lawmaker said. In the same vein, Namdas also debunked report that the House will soon re-convene to consider the request of President Muhammadu Buhari on the N242 billion for the 2019 general elections.
Fears that Dogara is on the verge defection has intensified following his failure to attend the closed door meeting held at the instance of the new APC national Chairman, Adams Oshiomhole.
Even though APC says it is not concerned about what is increasingly looking like a mass exit from its ranks, political analysts believe that the party have every reason to be concerned. Former ruling party PDP lost the 2015 general elections after five governors and several national assembly members took their exit from the party to the APC.
Saraki was among the 11 PDP Senators that defected to the APC on January 29 2014. Those defections are what helped the APC win the 2015 elections. Increasingly, it is looking like defections that strengthened APC and brought it to power in 2015, is what is going to get it out of power in 2019 unless the party finds a quick answer to the fast decimation of its ranks.
However, it is not uhuru for PDP either. Many of those defecting, are only defecting because they lost out in the APC. The big question that the PDP will have to deal with is, how to accommodate the ambitions of its returnee politicians. How it manages the ambitions of the returnees could make or mar its fortunes in 2019.
