Clouds of uncertainty appear to be gathering over the 2019 general elections as the ongoing war of supremacy between the National Assembly and the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) over election sequence is not showing any signs of ending soon. This is even as pundits say the Presidency, which before now had been in the battle only marginally, is gearing to fully enter the ring.
Meanwhile, the threats from some prominent Nigerians and groups pushing for the country’s restructuring that the general election would not hold unless the Federal Government carried out the restructuring exercise are also not abating as more voices continue to ring out.
INEC had on January 9 unveiled the sequence of the 2019 elections as follows: (a) Presidential and National Assembly elections (February 16, 2019), and (b) Governorship and State House of Assembly elections (March 2, 2019).
But the leadership of the National Assembly, which has neither enjoyed a robust relationship with the leadership of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) nor that of the executive, feared being ambushed by the sequence rolled out by INEC.
The federal lawmakers believe that the election sequence could lead to a bandwagon effect, saying that their decision to reorder the sequence was to prevent a repeat of the 2015 exercise where unpopular candidates rode on the popularity of other candidates to emerge victorious in their elections.
Some other lawmakers interested in going back to the National Assembly but not in the good books of the Presidency express fears that should election be held according to the INEC timetable, the president could decide to employ every arsenal at his disposal to ensure they do not return to the chambers once he is sure of his own victory.
Following the release of the timetable by INEC, the House of Representatives had commenced a process to amend the Electoral Act 2010 with the inclusion of section 25(1) in the law aimed at reordering the sequence of the elections.
Senior lawyers had argued that neither the Presidency nor National Assembly can dictate to INEC on the order in which next year’s general elections should hold.
According to them, INEC can only act based on the Electoral Act 2010 and its guidelines without recourse to the two arms of government.
The lawyers, however, said the National Assembly can alter the elections order by an amendment order of the enabling law.
“What the National Assembly is not allowed to do is to change this law less than six months to any election. We still have 14 months before the election, so they can amend the law to change the order,” Mike Ozekhome, a Senior Advocate of Nigeria (SAN), said.
“But beyond it, it is more responsible and more politically correct to put lesser elections first before the biggest election. The little masquerade first dances in the village square before the biggest of them all come out,” he said.
On February 6, the National Assembly Conference Committee on Electoral Act (amendment) Bill adopted the reordered sequence of the 2019 general elections.
On Wednesday, February 14, 2018, the Senate adopted the amended Electoral Act after the House of Representatives had done so earlier.
The amended version of the election sequence by the Senate is as follows: (a) National Assembly elections; (b) State Houses of Assembly and Governorship elections, and (c) Presidential election.
The new Electoral Act, which contains the new sequence, will now be transmitted to the president for assent. This, according to pundits, may present another battle front.
Some political observers say because by the new arrangement the legislators are somewhat telling President Buhari that he is on his own, a ploy staunch supporters of the president have seen through, Nigerians should expect more fireworks and battle of wits from both the Presidency and the National Assembly as the bill goes for presidential assent.
While some analysts have said the president holds the ace because his assent is required before the bill can become law, some others argue that in the event that the president withholds his assent, the National Assembly could call his bluff and go ahead to override him.
Some analysts say Buhari is likely to veto the resolutions of the National Assembly, and if he does, then the NASS resolutions would have no effect whatsoever.
They add, however, that the National Assembly could also override the president’s veto, leaving room for a legal battle between the executive and the legislature.
Equally, INEC could sue, asking the court whose right it is to determine election sequences.
“Whether it would be assented to or not by the president, as far as we are concerned, remains in the realm of conjecture for now, but if such eventually happens, we will know how to cross the bridge,” Edward Pwajok, chairman, House of Representatives Committee on INEC, said.
Disappointed at the ding-dong between the National Assembly and INEC, Remi Sonaiya, a former presidential candidate in the 2015 election, who has also indicated interest to contest in 2019, said that Nigerians were being taken for a ride by both the NASS and INEC. Sonaiya said the fixture was made as if they were heading toward a pre-determined outcome.
“They should treat Nigerians respectfully. We are all stakeholders in the Nigeria project. Did INEC explain to Nigerians why elections must hold in a particular order, why one must come before the other?” Sonaya said.
“The commission should have explained to Nigerians why it fixed one election before the others. The National Assembly also must explain to Nigerians why they want the elections in a particular order. With this they would have removed every doubt that their action is just about trying to favour themselves. They deceive the people so much,” she said.
But the tinkering last week of the election timetable through the adoption of the conference committee report on the Electoral Act (Amendment) Bill which would be used to conduct the elections, has been described by analysts as a dangerous development.
Also speaking in an exclusive interview with BDSUNDAY in Lagos, Guy Ikokwu, a prominent member of the Southern Leaders’ Forum (SLF), re-echoed the sentiments that there could be no election without restructuring.
Ikokwu said Nigeria had carried on for far too long on a unitary arrangement erroneously tagged federal system, noting that there’s an urgent need to restructure the country now.
“This country must be restructured before the election. Without restructuring there will be no election in Nigeria in February next year,” he said.
BDSUNDAY recalls that in the wake of renewed calls for restructuring following APC’s electoral victory in 2015 and its backtracking on the issue, several groups across mostly southern Nigeria had threatened to boycott the 2019 elections unless the Buhari administration and the APC agreed to restructure the country.
In December 2016, a coalition of pressure and socio-political groups in the South-East under the banner of the Eastern Consultative Assembly (ECA) stated restructuring of the country as a major condition for backing any candidate or political party in the 2019 general elections.
In July 2017, Niger Delta Young Leaders Stakeholders (NDYLS), a South-South socio-cultural group, also warned that there would be no general election or allocation of oil blocs in the region in 2019 if the country was not restructured.
Moses Siasia, a former governorship candidate in Bayelsa State, told journalists that the group, which comprises over 60 young leaders across states of the Niger Delta, reached the resolution after a roundtable meeting in Port-Harcourt.
“The Niger Delta people have unanimously agreed that restructuring embodies 100 percent control of their resources. The young leaders unanimously demand for 100 percent resource ownership, control and management and the restructuring of the current faulty political and economic architecture of Nigeria which is a source of provocation and they said this must be done before the 2019 general elections or there will be no elections across the region and no exploration of oil blocks,” Siasia said.
In August 2017, at a colloquium on restructuring organised by the Island Club, Lagos, prominent Southern leaders said without restructuring and devolution of powers, there may be no general election in 2019.
The colloquium titled ‘Restructuring: Challenges, implications and the way forward’, was attended by prominent leaders in the South-West, South-East, South-South and the North.
Last month, at a historic Igbo/Yoruba meeting in Enugu tagged ‘Handshake Across the Niger’, which also attracted representatives from the Niger Delta and the Middle Belt, the ethnic groups agreed to let go of their differences and work towards a restructured Nigeria based on equity, fairness, and justice, adding that without restructuring there would be no election in 2019.
“If you go to election without restructuring, you are done for,” said Ayo Adebanjo, frontline Afenifere chieftain, who said Buhari was Nigeria’s problem for opposing restructuring.
Not even Buhari’s statement in his 2018 New Year Broadcast that restructuring was not the most pressing issue in Nigeria has subdued the calls.
CHUKS OLUIGBO & OWEDE AGBAJILEKE
