Europe’s biggest jobs reshuffle is at hand. Never have so many top EU positions become vacant at once — nor have the politics of filling them looked so wickedly complicated.
In 2019 new presidents are to be appointed at the union’s four most important institutions — the European Commission, its executive; the European Council, co-ordinating its political leadership; the European Central Bank, setting monetary policy for most members; and the European Parliament.
These are just for starters. The EU’s foreign policy chief will be in the mix, as well as Europe’s nominee to be Nato’s secretary-general, and a surfeit of other European Commission posts. Brussels is thick with intrigue.
There is recognition, too, that the internal and external pressure on the bloc means more is at stake than horse-trading between personalities, parties or countries.
This time “is very different”, said Fredrik Reinfeldt, a former Swedish premier who took part in the last big EU reshuffle. “We have Trump as president of the US, Brexit in the UK, Italy going from being one of the most pro-EU countries to one of the most anti, and nationalist sentiment raging in eastern Europe . . . the context is completely different.”
Some crucial decisions are supposed to be taken at a summit of EU leaders in June 2019, a month after elections for the European Parliament. But that may prove a tall order. One ECB selection alone took a seven-hour “lunch” between EU leaders in 1998. Since then deciding a commission and council president has proved even more fraught, twice requiring holdout prime ministers to be formally outvoted.
Whatever the outcome, the tangled process, lasting more than a year, will involve three main phases.
A Franco-German deal?
Anything so significant in the EU will start with France and Germany, the two most powerful member states, trying to reach common accord. Private discussions have begun, with two jobs standing out: the presidencies of the ECB and the commission.
Some German, French and EU officials say Germany’s wish to place one of its citizens at the central bank has waned, while French interest in the post has risen. With that the odds on Jens Weidmann, Bundesbank president, have lengthened dramatically, while those of two Frenchmen — Benoit Coeuré, already an ECB executive board member, and François Villeroy de Galhau, the French central bank head — have shortened.
“I doubt it makes much difference what passport they have,” said one German official. “I don’t think the chancellor really is eyeing the ECB chief job for Germany.”
Instead Berlin may seek a commission under German leadership for the first time since Walter Hallstein in 1967. One senior EU official said it was “quite possible” the result would be a Frenchman at the ECB and a German commission president.
Such a trade-off is far from settled. Both Paris and Berlin may prefer proxies to achieve their aims. Some French officials are also wary of further entrenching German dominance in Brussels; Germans already hold three of the top four EU civil service posts.
Smaller countries’ concerns will be more pronounced. “During my years as prime minister, one of the things I learnt is that when important decisions are taken, France and Germany are always very much present,” said Mr Reinfeldt. “On top of that do you also need France and Germany taking the leading jobs? It concentrates power that is already very concentrated.”
The ‘Spitzenkandidaten
The further complication is electoral politics. Picking a commission president is no longer in the gift of EU leaders. The European Parliament must approve of a nominated candidate — and MEPs are insisting on the nominee being a lead party candidate in May’s European Parliament elections.
This so-called “Spitzenkandidat” process is meant to strengthen a democratic link between voters and the EU executive. But many leaders, including Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany and Emmanuel Macron, the French president, dislike aspects of it. Critics say it excludes top talent: serving premiers who might be candidates for commission chief are unwilling to risk national leadership to run a long European election campaign.
Yet as Ms Merkel found in 2014 when Jean-Claude Juncker went from Spitzenkandidat to commission presidency, a candidate’s post-election momentum can be hard to stop.
Prospective candidates are jockeying. The centre-right EPP, the biggest group in the parliament, will choose its candidate in November. Manfred Weber, German leader of the parliamentary group, is an early frontrunner. Other potential contenders include Alex Stubb, the former Finnish premier, and Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator — if those talks wrap up in good time.
The parliament’s liberal bloc, meanwhile, is considering names including Margrethe Vestager, the EU competition commissioner admired by Mr Macron.
There are several ways a Spitzenkandidat process might be derailed. EU leaders might try to assert control and refuse to nominate a party leader. Alternatively a messy election outcome might prevent any candidate securing a parliamentary majority. In either scenario, a serving or former EU leader could be tapped at the last moment.
The balancing act
In theory the EU’s jobs should represent the breadth of the union — in geography, politics and size of member state. As decisions become imminent, the more these “balancing” factors will come into play.
The appointment of the European Council president is the most obvious way to offset commission and ECB appointments, since it will be the last of the three to be filled and will be decided solely by EU leaders.
The role, created in 2009 and held by Donald Tusk, the former Polish premier, involves chairing summits and helping to set the political agenda for the EU. Depending on the package, the job could be claimed by smaller countries, newer member states in central and eastern Europe, or a southern member state.
Names being speculated upon have included Mark Rutte, the Dutch premier, Enda Kenny, the former Irish prime minister, Dalia Grybauskaite, the Lithuanian president, and Helle Thorning-Schmidt, former premier of Denmark.
Gender will be an important consideration. A woman has never been president of the ECB, Commission or Council, and only two have been in the history of the European Parliament. Many think this should be rectified.
One of the most intriguing possibilities of all, in that context, is that Ms Merkel could weigh in at a late stage to propose herself for a top role. Although rumours are rife about the four-term German chancellor seeking an EU perch, one senior EU official joked that this might be “wishful thinking by her enemies in Berlin”.
