Nigeria’s electricity generation sector continued to underperform in September 2025, as grid-connected power plants ran at only 38 percent of their total installed capacity of 13,625 megawatts (MW), according to new data from the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC).
NERC’s latest Operational Performance Factsheet revealed that just 5,200MW was available for dispatch to the national grid during the month — a marginal 6 percent improvement from August, yet still far below the nation’s generation potential.
The regulator attributed the poor performance to persistently low Plant Availability Factors (PAF), meaning several power stations were unable to generate at full capacity due to maintenance challenges, gas shortages, and transmission constraints.
Despite these setbacks, utilisation among available plants remained relatively strong at 78 percent, suggesting that most of the available capacity was dispatched. Average hourly generation stood at 4,091 megawatt-hours per hour (MWh/h), reflecting a slight 0.4 percent dip from August.
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The report also highlighted ongoing grid instability. Grid frequency fluctuated between 49.26 and 50.84 hertz (Hz), outside the regulatory range of 49.75Hz to 50.25Hz, while grid voltage averaged between 304.63 and 347.80 kilovolts (kV), mostly beyond the recommended 313.50kV to 346.50kV limits.
According to NERC, the grid maintained stable frequency only 48 percent of the time in September, highlighting the fragile state of Nigeria’s transmission network and its inability to sustain consistent voltage and frequency levels needed for reliable electricity supply.
The top ten power stations, led by Zungeru, Egbin, Kainji, and Jebba, accounted for 81 percent of total generation in the month.
Zungeru Hydro posted a 100 percent availability factor, generating 355MWh/h at 51 percent load factor. Egbin, Nigeria’s largest thermal plant, delivered 5,464MWh/h at 90 percent load factor despite operating at only 46 percent of its installed capacity.
Kainji and Jebba hydropower plants also performed strongly, with load factors of 91 percent and 73 percent, respectively.
By contrast, several grid-connected plants such as Alaoji, Rivers, Ibom Power, and Omoku recorded zero output during the month, highlighting continued inefficiencies and regional supply imbalances in the national grid.
Chinenye Ajayi, Team Lead for Power and Infrastructure Practice at Olaniwun Ajayi LP, said, “Given our population of over 220 million people, we should not be distributing less than 4,000 megawatts. It’s pathetic, honestly.
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“The rule of thumb is that there should be 1,000 megawatts per 1 million persons. So, Nigeria should be talking about 220,000 megawatts of capacity, not 13,000 installed and barely 4,000 delivered”
Fixing Nigeria’s power sector requires massive investment. The Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN) estimates it needs at least $4.2 billion to upgrade and expand the transmission grid.
However, attracting investors has been challenging due to policy inconsistencies, inadequate contract enforcement, and an unstable macroeconomic environment.
Ajayi noted that even when policies exist, Nigeria often fails in execution, “It’s not about reforms or policies, really. Nigeria has numerous policies in place. The problem is implementation. If Nigeria is to implement half of what it has in place in terms of policies and laws, we will not be where we are today”.
Experts argue that beyond capital, political will is needed to enforce cost-reflective tariffs, tackle energy theft, and insulate the power sector from political interference.
