On May 29, 2021, President Muhammadu Buhari clocked six years in office, as the President and Commander in Chief of the armed forces of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. After six uninterrupted years in power, President Buhari cannot be said to be new to the economic challenges plaguing the nation. He controls the institutions of the state and consequently, he should be well informed of the economic dynamics such that none of his advisers can call white black for him.
President Buhari’s scorecard currently is that the economic realities on the ground are more worrisome now than when he assumed office in 2015. One of the campaign promises of President Buhari’s All Progressives Congress (APC) is to maintain a sound macro-economic policy environment. The party also promises to make the Nigerian economy one of the fastest-growing emerging economies in the world with real GDP growth averaging 10 percent annually. Others include the creation of one million jobs annually, export and production diversification including investment in infrastructure while promoting manufacturing through agro-based industries, among others.
When President Buhari’s administration is assessed now, Nigeria is not in any way close to some of the electoral promises stated above. From all indications, the Nigerian economy has gone through two phases of recessions since 2015. Extant GDP growth figures show that Nigeria, African biggest economy, was in a recession in 2016 and 2020. Since then, economic growth has hovered around 1 percent. An economy that grows at this rate cannot guaranty the basic necessities of life to its citizens.
Also, the unemployment rate has remained very high. In the latest labour force statistics published by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria’s unemployment rate rose to 33.3 percent in the last quarter of 2020 with 23.2 million able and willing Nigerians unable to find jobs. The unemployment rate of Nigerians who are holders of A’ Level certificates is much worse at 50.7 percent, and this is the highest in the federation. Nigerians who hold first-degree certificates or their equivalents are the second most affected in terms of their inability to get jobs with the unemployment rate at 40.1 percent.
When we dissected the labour force statistics further, we found that Nigerians who are within the 15-24 age brackets have their unemployment rate at 53.4 percent, the highest in the nation. By virtue of that, half of Nigerians within that age group are jobless. Those within the 25-34 age groups are next in terms of joblessness. Their unemployment rate is 37.2 percent. Unfortunately, this group of Nigerians constitutes the highest percentage of the nation’s labour force. These unemployment statistics have put Nigeria among the top three worst-performing economies in the world after Namibia and Bosnia and Herzegovina, each at 33.4 percent.
Inflation has wreaked havoc on households’ incomes because the higher the inflation, the lesser the purchasing power and standard of living. Until April this year when the headline inflation fell to 18.12 percent, Nigeria’s inflationary trend rose consistently for 20 months from 11.02 percent in August 2019 to 18.17 percent in March 2021. By that, Nigeria becomes the 12th country in the world and 7th in Africa with the highest inflationary pressures. The other African countries with the highest headline inflation rates are Sudan (363%); Zimbabwe (162%); Angola (24.82%); Zambia (23.2%); Ethiopia (19.2%0 and South Sudan (18.3%).
President Buhari has two more years to leave behind footprints on the sand of time. To do this, he needs to consider merits above ethnic consideration in project allocation and appointments. Economic growth is not possible when the lives and properties of the citizens are not safe, meaning he must do everything within his constitutional powers and in collaboration with other stakeholders to restore peace and sanity in the country. Again, addressing some of these challenges may require just listening to the people as has been demonstrated by the varying demands made across the different geopolitical zones in the ongoing constitutional review. Above all, the President must show he is for all Nigerians. This may go a long way to soothe frayed nerves.
