In the shadows of Nigeria’s mounting political uncertainty, a new plot is quietly taking shape, one that could define the 2027 presidential election.
Spearheaded by former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, the anti-Tinubu alliance, reportedly involving other prominent figures like Peter Obi, Nasir el-Rufai, and Rotimi Amaechi, is scrambling for a viable political platform amid the lingering internal fractures in the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the Labour Party.
However, amid the internal implosion and unstable state of opposition parties in the country since the 2023 general election, the opposition coalition has been searching for a credible political platform to actualise its plan.
After initial romance with the Social Democratic Party (SDP), however, events in the last few weeks have shown that the party may not be a credible platform for the coalition to float its kit. With reports indicating that the party has been infiltrated by agents of the ruling party.
Amid media reports, sources in the coalition revealed to BusinessDay that the African Democratic Congress (ADC), a party long dismissed as fringe, is now being courted by the opposition political heavyweights determined to unseat President Bola Tinubu in 2027.
Read also: ADC is in coalition that will win 2027 general election – Kambile
Why ADC?
Initially, the Social Democratic Party (SDP) was tipped as the coalition’s special purpose vehicle (SPV), but internal resistance and the perceived influence of Tinubu within the party forced a rethink. Olu Agunloye, the SDP’s national secretary, made it clear that the party would not entertain external takeovers or merger proposals, dousing any hope of collaboration.
The ADC, on the other hand, saw an opportunity and moved quickly to court the coalition. The party is already tweaking its internal structures, including amending its constitution, to offer equal rights and privileges to new entrants, in a bid to present itself as a neutral and accommodating platform.
However, not everyone within the ADC is on board. Long-time party veterans, wary of losing influence, are reportedly gearing up for a showdown with the incoming political juggernauts who could upend the existing power balance.
Founded in 2001, the ADC has largely been a peripheral player on Nigeria’s political landscape. In the 2019 general elections, it secured just three National Assembly seats and two state legislative seats in Oyo. But now, the party is flirting with national relevance, at a high cost.
Its internal divisions may, ironically, prove more debilitating than the troubles plaguing PDP and Labour. Ahead of the 2023 election, the ADC suspended its presidential candidate, Dumebi Kachikwu, a decision later reversed by Patricia Akwashiki, who claimed to be leading an interim faction. The party has not recovered from that chaos.
The leadership crisis has dragged on, with founding chairman, Ralph Nwosu, refusing to step down after two decades at the helm. The party’s Supreme Court case over who holds legitimate authority has been pending since 2022.
Read also: Atiku’s Ally: Opposition coalition 90% ready to challenge Tinubu in 2027
Legal wrangles
The ADC is currently split between two factions, one led by Nwosu and another by Kingsley Ogga. The Ogga-led faction has taken legal action to block any merger discussions with other parties. In a statement issued last Friday in Abuja, Ogga warned the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) against recognising the Nwosu-led group in any merger negotiations.
To enforce its stance, the Ogga camp has filed a fresh lawsuit before Justice Omotosho of the Abuja Federal High Court, seeking an injunction to restrain INEC from endorsing any merger until the Supreme Court resolves the chairmanship dispute.
The road to 2027
With the PDP and Labour Party still knee-deep in their own leadership crises, the coalition seeking to oust Tinubu is running out of time, and viable platforms.
The ADC battered but willing remains a tempting but risky option. For now, the coalition’s grand plans may rest on whether the ADC can resolve its own existential turmoil, or implode under the weight of the very ambition that might have revived it. But the party is preparing and gearing up for the task ahead.
The ADC has commenced a country-wide consultation to position the party and deepen coalition integration ahead of the 2027 general elections.
According to the party, the consultation, which is expected to take place across the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), is a grassroots movement to make the party visible across the country.
Nwosu, national chairman, emphasised that the initiative is more than a political event, but is a deliberate grassroots movement to solidify its grassroots presence and deepen coalition integration.
The consultation is expected to witness a convergence of coalition partners under the ADC platform.
Read also: PDP faction plans coalition to unseat APC
“This historic programme is scheduled to run across all 36 states of the federation from Monday to Saturday within the first week of June 2025,” Nwosu said.
“The convergence, which will take place in each state capital, follows a resolution of the National Executive Committee (NEC) and is backed by the National Working Committee (NWC).”
He stressed that the event will bring together political parties, civil society organisations, labour unions, and well-meaning patriots who have consistently demonstrated interest in joining forces with ADC’s coalition framework.
ADC boasts of better structure -Analysts
As the race towards the 2027 general election gathers momentum, analysts say the only choice left for the opposition coalition is to adopt, merge and work with existing political parties since it is clear that the ruling party is not likely to give INEC the required free hand to register a new party to challenge it.
Kunle Okunade, a political analyst, said the ADC boasts a better structure when compared to other political parties in the country.
He pointed out that the party has a well-organised grassroots framework and leadership structure down to the polling unit level.
“This robust structure is expected to provide a solid foundation for the coalition’s electoral success if adopted,” Okunade said.
The party’s transformation DNA and African view on governance, which has been ingrained in its core values over the years, appear to align with the coalition’s goals of bringing about change and promoting Nigerian interests.
Similarly, Sunday Udo, also a political analyst, said since the SDP has been infiltrated by the ruling party, the coalition has no choice than to work with ADC. However, he hopes the reported internal wrangling within the ADC does not affect the coalition efforts.
Udo further argued that since the party does not have strong structures in many states, noting that the coalition would have a tough task of building structures of ADC within the limited time available.
Read also: Opposition coalition against Tinubu will fail, says APC chieftain
“If they are adopting the ADC, they have to do that fast and start building structures within states, or they should forget competing with APC.
“In many states, ADC does not have a strong structure. Who is the chairman in Lagos?” Udo asked.
Similarly, Shehu Kambile, ADC’s chairman in Adamawa State, told BusinessDay that the party will form the next federal government in Nigeria and Nigerians will feel the impact of good governance in the country. He said since Athe PC came to power in 2015, it has not been easy at all with the citizens of this country.
“By 2027, our candidates will go round to all the wards to campaign ward to ward and unit to unit because there will be no corruption, no tribalism, no religious sentiment.”
