The implementation of the Conditional Cash Transfer programme which is to commence immediately the budget is approved by the National Assembly with the disbursement of N5,000 monthly for 1 million vulnerable Nigerians will incur a government cost of N60 billion annually which is about 0.05 percent of Nigeria’s projected $540 billion GDP for 2016.
Brazil’s ‘Bolsa Familiar’, the biggest and best known of all cash transfer schemes worldwide, accounts for 0.5% of its GDP.
With its éclat in Latin America, the CCT programme, if its pitfalls are well contained, could provide some stimulus for the Nigerian economy.
The Brazilian programme-a commodious harbour for an estimated 129 million beneficiaries in Latin America- according to the Asian Development Bank (ADB) has the ability to enhance both the income of the poor in the short run and their human capabilities in the medium and long run.
‘The world’s favourite new anti-poverty device in poor and middle income countries’ as the social programme was referred to by the Economist magazine in a July 2010 publication, has resulted in poverty reduction among recipients especially when the transfer is well targeted and structured in a way that does not discourage recipients from taking actions to escape poverty.
As the name implies, the conditional cash transfer is only disbursed when certain criteria are being met. These criteria range from school enrolment of children, to getting regular check-ups and receiving vaccinations.
Speaking at the 13th CVL (Centre for Values and Leadership) Annual Lecture Leadership Symposium, the Vice President Yemi Osinbajo identified the enrolment of school aged children of the beneficiaries of the CCT in school as major criteria in disbursing the stipend.
With this in mind, it is plain as day that the Federal Government will be cloning the Brazilian Bolsa Familia which was underway in the 1990s and expanded rapidly in 2001 and 2002. Commensurate with the Nigerian CCT model, the Bolsa Familia provides monthly cash payments to poor households if their school aged children (between the ages of 6 & 15) are enrolled in school and if their younger children under the age of 6 have received vaccinations.
Expert analysis has shown that the Bolsa Familia not only increased household income and consumption in poor families but increased school enrolment and attendance.
Pat Utomi, Founder of the Centre for Values and Leadership, speaking to BusinessDay on the probable effect the CCT will have on the Nigerian economy, hinted that the cash will increase the purchasing power of the vulnerable beneficiaries, informing an increase in demand which would ultimately lead to a surge in production.
Evidence show that households that receive CCTs spend more on food and this has prompted industry analysts to conclude that a surge in the consumption of locally grown and processed food items by the CCT beneficiaries would impact the economy especially in areas of job creation and lead to more effective harnessing of the nation’s agricultural commodities.
Although, it has been successful to a good extent, the CCT is not void of obstacles which tend to inhibit its conversion rates in the countries it has been introduced. These obstacles as identified by Laura Rawlings and Gloria Rubio of the World Bank are majorly changes in political leadership and the exclusion of needy homes in targeting process which the apex bank assessment hinted was due to the inability of remote communities to access schools or clinics. The latter challenge has been decisive in excluding a good number of vulnerable families.
These obstacles, experts have opined, among others like insufficient political will, poorly targeted beneficiaries and the level of corruption in Nigeria, who scored a shameful 26 percent on the last report published by the Corruptions Perception Index.
The 23,306 ghost workers on Federal Government pay roll which was recently exposed by the Bank Verification Number (BVN) may spell good tidings for the clamp down on corrupt practices particularly prevalent in the public sector as the adverse effect of corruption may have nowhere to hide in the implementation of the CCT programme.
Aware of the challenges posed against the implementation of the programme, Adeolu Akande, Senior Special Assistant on Media, in the office of the Vice President, revealed that the N5, 000 stipends will be paid directly to the beneficiaries through an effective payment system which the presidency is collaborating with the World Bank and Bill & Melinda Gates foundation to develop.
LOLADE AKINMURELE
