The Field Manual (FM) on Counterinsurgency Operations of the US Army defines insurgency as an “organized movement aimed at the overthrow of a constituted government through use of subversion and armed conflict. It is a protracted politico-military struggle designed to weaken government control and legitimacy while increasing insurgent control. Political power is the central issue in an insurgency [emphasis added].”
The International Crisis Group (Crisis Group) in its latest report on Nigeria: Curbing Violence in Nigeria (II) says “Boko Haram is one of several profound threats to Nigeria’s stability. It has grown quickly to be a major security challenge because it taps into wide discontent with bad governance, corruption and official impunity.”
In other words, the struggle against insurgents has to be fought on many fronts: military, social, economic, political and ideological. Admittedly, the battle of ideas has just begun with the introduction of a “soft approach” to counter-terrorism by Mohammed Sambo Dasuki, National Security Adviser (NSA).
In addition to “poverty, joblessness, prolonged and unresolved conflict, social injustice and a growing youth bulge”, the NSA reckons a combination of “push” and “pull” factors cause terrorism. An “identity conflict” is considered a major “pull factor”.
Crisis Group notes that “In cities like Kano and Kaduna, many Almajiri have graduated into Yandaba, adolescent groups that once socialised teenagers into adulthood but have in many cases become gangs. In 2005, the National Council for the Welfare of the Destitute estimated there were seven million Almajiri children in northern Nigeria.”
Boko Haram’s initial objective was to get political power for an Islamic state that will correct societal ills like corruption. Corruption affects us all but it is particularly more pronounced where the gap between those who have and those who don’t is pronounced and palpable.
Military strategy, as a standalone, won’t work. Overwhelming firepower and air support and technological prowess don’t guarantee success. Nigeria’s defence budget has increased to N1 trillion ($6.25bn) in 2012-2014 from N100 billion ($625m) in 2010.
Providing physical security, within the north east and across the country, and the strategic communication of our family, cultural, religious and national values are important but insufficient. Our political culture is a lingering issue that keeps fuelling grievances. In its report, Crisis Group called for “radical reform of governance and [Nigeria’s] political culture”.
In the Crisis Group report, General Martin Luther Agwai, the former Chief of Defence Staff, says “you can never solve any of these problems with military solutions. The military can always be an enabling force. They will sensitise; they will stabilise the area [but] it is a political issue; it is a social issue; it is an economic issue, and until these issues are addressed, the military can never give you a solution”.
A comprehensive plan to alleviate the political and socio-economic conditions behind the insurgency must be included. The number of troops is irrelevant if the hearts and minds of the people are not with you. Winning hearts and minds requires cultural nous: the ability to understand the people, their culture and their motivation.
Alas, it’s doubtful that, as another election cycle approaches, Nigeria’s elites will demonstrate the will to confront this problem. And so long as they don’t, Crisis Group warns that “Boko Haram, or groups like it, will continue to destabilise large parts of the country.”
Nigeria’s political economy is one of wide-scale and systemic corruption centred around oil money involving elite factions (political, business, bureaucratic, traditional and religious) who, based on their connections and financial clout, joust for undue influence.
Crony capitalism and political patronage thrive because there is total disregard for the rule of law. Beneficiaries of this political system hail from myriad ethnic, political and religious backgrounds. For as long they agree on how to share the spoils all is well but when they disagree things go wrong. To maintain the status quo the elite manipulate ethno-religious differences, often with violent consequences.
Crisis Group reckons “some of the money used for corruption, patronage and political violence by governors comes from ‘security votes’, joint state/local government accounts and money laundering.”
Our politicians are financially reckless and extravagant. Governors, for example, are among the most influential politicians because they can spend the “security vote” at their discretion with no oversight. Nigerian legislators are among the highest paid in the world.
Hence, a large chunk of federal and state budgets is spent on recurrent expenditure i.e. salaries, allowances, pocket money, foreign trips and temporary duty tours; leaving little else for capital projects like roads, schools and hospitals.
This socio-economic fissure continues to ensure that few Nigerians benefit from the immense wealth of the country while the majority languish in extreme poverty. This fracture is most evident in the North East of Nigeria.
The result of bad governance is economic hardship, inequality and social frustration. Institutions, federal, state and local, are incapable of delivering public goods such as security, transportation, water, medical care, power and education.
A dysfunctional state has failed its citizens, woefully. Poverty and violence are the lot of most Nigerians. Governance and development are not on the agenda. Ethnic militias, separatist groups and religious movements are filling this gap.
Tayo Fagbule
