In the first instalment of this article, I predicted correctly that Asiwaju Bola Tinubu would determine the outcome of the All Progressives Congress (APC) Lagos State governorship primaries and that his candidate, Akinwunmi Ambode, a former state accountant-general, would therefore be most likely to prevail over his rivals within the party. The only aspirant in that intra-party battle who put up a credible challenge was the works and infrastructure commissioner, Obafemi Hamzat. On the PDP side, I also called the hotly-contested duel between Jimi Agbaje, a pharmacist, businessman and long-term political and civil society leader, and Senator Musiliu Obanikoro, most-recently minister of state for defence, correctly as the PDP primary voters accepted this column’s reasoning that the party stood a better chance of making the election competitive if it picked Agbaje.
In the event, the two candidates Akinwunmi Ambode and Jimi Agbaje are running a very close and competitive race in Lagos, and the election cannot be called perhaps until April 4, 2015, just a week before the governorship polls. The outcome may be affected somewhat by the results of the presidential elections that will happen on March 28, a race in which some say the momentum appears to be reversing and the outcome is becoming more predictable as we go along. I will return to the presidential “war” in the next instalment of “The contest for Abuja”, but the focus today is the Alausa, Ikeja state house which both Agbaje and Ambode seek to occupy.
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Akinwumni Ambode, as a former civil servant, is contesting based on “continuity” the of the Tinubu/Fashola legacy in Lagos State and on the coattails of the APC’s national “Change” mantra. This, of course, produces a challenge for Ambode as “Change” in Lagos State implies electing Jimi Agbaje rather than himself since the state has been ruled since 1999 essentially by Tinubu and his proxies and allies! The result is a communication somersault “continuity for change” by which the Ambode campaign is trying to project itself.
The other leg on which the APC campaign is anchored is Ambode’s twenty-seven-year experience, much of it within the local government treasury system, rising to accountant-general of local government before switching to the state service. The main challenges Ambode faces will be to correlate his experience with his articulation, which appears to lag so far (!), and self-confidence; address concerns that he will just be a puppet for Tinubu and not be his own man; clarify in the public mind the circumstances of his exit from the state government; and project himself as a credible candidate and not one hiding behind Fashola, APC, Yemi Osinbajo and Tinubu.
Jimi Agbaje is running a campaign based on trust (seeking to leverage his substantial goodwill in civil Lagos), integrity, visionary ideas and a Lagos that serves the interests of everyone rather than, as he puts it, “vested interests”! Jimi Agbaje is anchoring his qualification for the role on leadership rather than functional skills and is presenting a resume based on leadership in multiple contexts – professional (pharmacy) and business (founder of Jaykay Pharmacy and investor in one of Nigeria’s most successful new generation banks), civil society (Concerned Professionals; New Generation; Save Nigeria Group), socio-political (Afenifere, Alliance for Democracy, DPA, etc.), and national (Officer of the Federal Republic), and on a vision of bold ideas and opportunities to transform Lagos into a position comparable with its global peers. His main challenge is the “experience” question, not having previously held public office, but he has already reminded voters that neither did Obafemi Awolowo (before becoming leader of Government Business in Western Nigeria) nor Nelson Mandela (before assuming office as South African president) ever hold any public office!
Some worry about his political platform, the PDP, which is unpopular in segments of Lagos society and polity, but such concerns defy logic given that virtually everyone who defined “PDP” – Obasanjo, Atiku, and the trio of Barnabas Gemade, Audu Ogbe and Kawu Baraje (three former PDP national chairmen!), Bukola Saraki, Rabiu Kwankwaso, Rotimi Amaechi, ex-Governor Mbadinuju, Olagunsoye Oyinlola – and hundreds of former PDP governors, legislators, ministers and party officials have crossed over to the APC where they have been welcomed with open arms! In Nigerian politics, a focus on political parties does not seem to make any sense and the electorate will probably end up looking at the credibility of individual candidates instead!
The consequence of all these permutations and complex calculations is that just like at the federal level, we have probably the closest contest in Lagos State in 2015 and voters have a legitimate reason and duty to closely examine each of the candidates, their platforms and contexts, their independence, campaign promises and personal credibility before they make up their minds who to vote for. Most reports suggest that the two debates conducted so far were emphatic victories for Agbaje and the videos I have seen corroborate those claims, but there is now more than enough time for both candidates to personally present themselves to voters and explain their mission and purpose as they seek to govern our state.
Opeyemi Agbaje
