President Bola Tinubu has launched a new national forest guard corps, signalling a bold response to Nigeria’s deepening security crisis. The corps is tasked with reclaiming over 1,100 forests from criminal elements. It is a large-scale, armed, and professionally trained force that reflects the urgency of restoring state authority in vast ungoverned spaces.
However, beneath this high-profile initiative lies a complex web of political power dynamics that continues to shape — and often undermine — security strategies. The government hopes to mobilise over 130,000 operatives to secure 1,129 forest reserves but the true challenge may not only be criminality. There are innumerable entrenched political interests and rivalries that have allowed these lawless territories to persist and expand across the country.
As of today, Nigeria is grappling with the widespread problem of occupied ungoverned spaces in at least 23 of its 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory.
These areas, where government presence is minimal or entirely absent, have become breeding grounds for insurgents, jihadists, bandits and kidnappers, and other non-state actors. The absence of governance allows these groups to establish their own authority, undermining national security and complicating development efforts.
Ungoverned spaces are particularly dangerous as they provide safe havens for criminal elements, leaving civilians vulnerable and at the mercy of insurgents. Major transportation routes, once vital for commerce and movement of people, have been transformed into no-go zones controlled by armed groups who set up roadblocks and conduct searches. This has further eroded public confidence in state security institutions and contributed to the rise of informal armed groups and local vigilantes, fuelling a cycle of violence and lawlessness.
The impact on rural communities has been severe, with food security threatened and livelihoods destroyed. The inability of authorities to restore order has emboldened criminals and perpetuated instability. Nigeria now faces the urgent challenge of reclaiming these territories, restoring the rule of law, and providing basic services to affected communities.
Governor Babagana Zulum of Borno State has been among the most vocal Nigerian leaders highlighting the political power dynamics fuelling insecurity in the northeast and beyond. Many others have openly accused (usually unnamed) members of the military, political class, traditional rulers and even local communities of complicity in perpetuating violence.
Zulum specifically points to informants and collaborators within the armed forces and political establishment who aid Boko Haram, undermining government efforts and sabotaging attempts to restore order. This is not a new concern; former President Goodluck Jonathan also admitted to having Boko Haram sympathisers within his cabinet, illustrating the depth of the issue within Nigeria’s political system.
Zulum warned that Borno is “losing ground” to jihadists, citing frequent attacks and the withdrawal of military forces from several local government areas. He has criticised federal authorities for insufficient support, inadequate equipment, and inconsistent policies, particularly regarding the deradicalisation and reintegration of “repentant” Boko Haram members — many of whom have returned to violence after their release.
Numerous other credible voices have argued that deep-seated political interests have significantly exacerbated Nigeria’s insecurity, allowing criminality and insurgency to thrive. They have accused government officials of complicity, noting that the combination of political calculation, fear, impunity and systemic corruption has prevented the public naming and prosecution of compromised officials. This entrenched dynamic continues to undermine Nigeria’s fight against insecurity and perpetuates the cycle of violence and instability.
Governor Zulum and others have called for urgent action against saboteurs, emphasising the need to end the “contractocracy” — where security contracts are exploited for personal gain, thus perpetuating the crisis. He insists that robust, intelligence-driven measures are needed to root out collaborators and restore public confidence.
Forest Guards, especially those recruited locally, can provide intelligence and help fill security gaps in remote areas.
However, their effectiveness could be severely undermined by several challenges: Oversight is fragmented between the Office of the National Security Adviser and the Ministry of Environment, leading to bureaucratic turf wars and operational confusion.
Without clear rules and robust oversight, there is a risk that Forest Guards could become yet another bureaucratic security layer, worsening the situation.
The existence of multiple agencies with similar or overlapping mandates (e.g., the National Park Service, NHFSS) may lead to duplication of efforts and inter-agency conflict, reducing overall effectiveness.
Additionally, effective forest policing requires specialised training, advanced technology, weaponry, and significant resources, all of which have historically been in short supply.
At its core, the problem of ungoverned spaces stems from deeper governance failures. Corruption, politicisation, and manipulation have weakened Nigeria’s institutions, allowing insecurity to persist and worsen. Security agencies are often under-resourced and lack public trust, while socioeconomic issues like poverty and unemployment provide fertile ground for recruitment by armed groups.
Establishing Forest Guards is, no doubt, a positive step; but it cannot singularly resolve Nigeria’s security crisis. To see real progress will demand naming and rooting out political and military complicity. A successful fight will also involve enforcing genuine accountability, providing a workable governance and operational oversight that would address the underlying social challenges that allow insecurity to thrive.
