How time flies! Five years ago, about this time, I wrote a column titled “At 60, my life’s journey and impatience for a transformed Nigeria” (BusinessDay, July 27, 2020). It was on the glorious occasion of my diamond jubilee, which Vanguard newspaper generously covered with special features, including a two-page birthday interview. Five years later, I have just celebrated my 65th birthday, precisely last week, on Thursday, July 24, and this great newspaper, BusinessDay, as well as, again, Vanguard, marked it with me so splendidly. I mean, look at the special coverage in both newspapers last Thursday! I am enormously grateful to the legendary Vanguard and to BusinessDay, unquestionably the best business newspaper in Nigeria, and one of the best in Africa!
But something else is different as I mark my 65th birthday: I have a gift for Nigeria; it’s a special gift, a patriotic gift. The “impatience for a transformed Nigeria” that I talked about in my July 2020 article has morphed, five years on, into a book on Nigeria. The book is titled “In the National Interest: The Road to Nigeria’s Political, Economic and Social Transformation.” It is a comprehensive and holistic analysis of Nigeria’s political, economic and social challenges, with thoughtful ideas on the way forward. This piece is not an exposition of the book; that’s a job for reviewers. Rather, I would like to home in on the book’s central theme: the imperative of acting in the national interest.
The book’s title, “In the National Interest”, was inspired by my deep conviction that, when stripped down to their bones, the political, economic and social challenges crippling Nigeria are traceable to the fact that few people act in the national interest in this country. Nigeria is in the grip of powerful vested interests who benefit from the status quo and continue to resist change. In any country, such resistance can only be overcome with selfless, visionary and transformational leaders, who can rise above vested interests and drive positive and progressive change, and with a critical mass of enlightened citizens, who can hold their leaders’ feet to the fire and demand transformative change.
Unfortunately, Nigeria has long had a dearth of visionary leaders and lacks a critical mass of enlightened and active citizenry that can propel change. I said “critical mass” because, as Professor Cass Sunstein argues in his book, “Why Change Happens”, change becomes inevitable once a “tipping point is reached” by those demanding it. Sadly, Nigeria defies the theory of change. According to the theory, a crisis, an existential crisis, is a trigger for change. But for Nigeria, crises are just crises, they are not a prologue to radical change. That tipping point, that critical mass, for change is never reached.
Think about it. What kind of crisis has Nigeria not had? It has had a civil war; it has had a debt crisis forcing it to seek debt relief; it is one of the most volatile economies in the world thanks to its overdependence on crude oil export; it lacks unity and internal cohesion, with political, religious and ethnic tensions threatening to tear it apart; it is deeply fractured socially, as acute poverty and insecurity savage and ravage its citizens; above all, its institutions are utterly dysfunctional, denuding it of state capacity. Each of those crisis situations, not to mention their cumulation, would trigger far-reaching systemic reforms in many countries. But instead of systemic shocks or existential crises jolting Nigeria out of its sclerosis and triggering fundamental reforms, a prolonged stasis and path dependency have normalised the status quo, making radical change really hard and elusive.
“Some call Nigeria the “sick giant of Africa”, but it can and must be a real powerhouse, a force for good nationally, regionally and globally.”
Yet, anyone who truly loves this country must fear for its future. For me, that fear is not that Nigeria might disintegrate, although no one must take its unity for granted. Rather, it is that Nigeria might stagnate and be deeply fragile, verging on state failure. The World Bank classifies Nigeria among Lower-Middle Income Economies (LMIEs), behind Libya and Gabon. Based on other metrics, Nigeria is classified among Least-Developed Countries (LDCs). But how can Nigeria, the world’s six most populous country, with its human and natural endowments, find itself among LMIEs and LDCs when its peers at independence, such as Malaysia, South Korea and Taiwan, are economic giants today? Sadly, Nigerian leaders are too complacent to recognise that the country they lead is abysmally underperforming. They borrow heavily to build roads and commission them with pomp and pageantry. Yet, go to Malaysia, Singapore or Indonesia, roads in those countries put Nigeria’s in the shade, as does everything else!
But here’s the real existential challenge. The United Nations projects that Nigeria will become the world’s third most populous country by 2050 and the world’s second most populous by 2100. Now, in those scenarios, what’s the future for this country politically, economically and socially if it trudges on with its current deeply flawed political and governance structures, its current failed economic model and its current acute social and societal retardations? Some call Nigeria the “sick giant of Africa”, but it can and must be a real powerhouse, a force for good nationally, regionally and globally. That’s the context in which I wrote the book. It’s a treatise on how Nigeria can unlock its great but latent potential and become politically stable, economically prosperous and socially cohesive.
The powerful endorsements the book received internationally is a testament to its great value. David Pilling, Africa Editor of the Financial Times, says the book “faces Nigeria’s problems head-on and offers serious solutions”; Alex Vines, Director, Africa Programme at Chatham House, says it is “an important reading for anyone concerned with Nigeria’s future”; and Professor Sir Paul Collier of Oxford University, a world-renowned authority on African development, pronounces: “This is the book that Nigerians have long needed.” Is there a Nigerian endorser? You bet! Our own Professor Pat Utomi describes the book thus: “Thoughtful … A call for action to change course.” With such strong and positive endorsements from world-class scholars and policy experts, I feel proud writing the book. But my greatest hope is that the book will contribute to a root-and-branch renewal of Nigeria, underpinned by a new political and constitutional settlement, a critical precondition for Nigeria’s political, economic and social transformation.
My appeal to the national interest is an appeal to the patriotic sense of all Nigerians to think seriously about Nigeria’s future and do the needful. I doff my hat and pay tribute to elder statesmen like Chief Emeka Anyaoku, who, in their 90s, are still fighting for a fair, just, stable, united and prosperous Nigeria. Those of us who are much younger have no excuses not to join the struggle; my book is a contribution to it.
So, what next? The book is published in the US by Penguin, which is marketing it internationally. By the grace of God, it will be launched in Nigeria in November, with the solid backing of Vanguard and BusinessDay. I am utterly indebted to Mr Sam Amuka, Nigeria’s beloved Uncle Sam, publisher of Vanguard newspapers, who has supported me through the book’s journey and is four-square behind its launch. Eze Anaba, Editor of Vanguard, is also rooting for the book launch as is Mr Frank Aigbogun, publisher and editor-in-chief of BusinessDay. I am grateful to them.
Well, dear Nigeria, my book is a patriotic gift to you on my 65th birthday: Embrace it!
