President-elect General Muhammadu Buhari (rtd) promised Nigerians in February that his administration will run a market-based economy if voted into office.
The All Progressives Congress Campaign Organization (APCCO) in a message signed by Garba Shehu, Director of Media and Publicity, quoted Buhari as saying that “the system would be operated with clear, unambiguous regulatory framework, effective enforcement mechanism and zero tolerance for corruption. Buhari further indicated that an APC-led government “will insist on and cut out wastages and run a lean and efficient administration in order to have funds available for capital and development projects that will assure prosperity for all Nigerians.”
Providence has since smiled on Buhari on March 28; it is now his lot to deliver on his campaign promises.
Investors are interested in a country’s philosophy of development because it is a pointer to whether a government will implement policies that facilitate wealth creation or stifle the private sector. The key features of the Nigerian case have been summarized by Mike Obadan, professor of economics at the University of Benin in a 2014 paper titled ‘NIGERIA’S ECONOMY: Paradox of poverty amidst plenty’. In his narrative, Nigerian has experimented with two major development philosophies or paradigms. One is public sector-led development strategy and the other is market-based strategy/private sector-led growth strategy. Obadan suggests that the market-based strategy has been given strong expression since the introduction of the Structural Adjustment Programme, 1986 – 1988. On the other hand, he contends that in the public sector-driven growth strategy, the government assumed the “commanding heights” of the economy in the 1970s and dictated the pace of growth through its involvement in virtually all activities including production.
Buhari’s promise of private-sector-led development management strategy is of interest to investors because it represents a dramatic transformation of his views on the role of the state in economic development. He has traditionally favoured public sector-led development strategy. His public comments in the past exuded suspicion for the doctrine of a lean government which aspires to provide the enabling environment that businesses require to thrive while the state focuses on efficient and effective regulation of economic activities.
All things considered, it is of interest whether the president-elect will retain Nigeria’s goal of economic development or articulate something else. For example , economists like Obadan, have argued that the overarching goal of Nigeria’s economic development has been to achieve material prosperity, stability, peace and social progress. More specific objectives of economic and social development are contained in various policy documents of government.
One of Nigeria’s best known high-level policy documents is the Nigeria Vision 20: 2020 (NV 20: 2020) which is a long-term planning framework. The document reflects Nigeria’s ambition to be a great economic power as one of the top 20 economies in the world by 2020. “The associated Economic Transformation Blueprint articulates Nigeria’s economic growth and development strategies for the 11-year period between 2009 and 2020. The vision is that by 2020, Nigeria will have a large, strong, diversified, sustainable and competitive economy that is one of the top 20 economies, with an overarching target of at least $900 billion in GDP and a per capita income of at least $4,000 per annum.
Of particular significance are the projections relating to GDP size, economic structure, agricultural productivity, manufacturing contribution to GDP and electricity generation. The installed capacity for electricity is expected to increase from 6,000 MW in 2009 to 35,000 MW by 2020.
The plan focuses on laying the foundation for achieving the Vision; contains the medium-term strategic policy direction, development priorities implementation strategies and expected deliverables in addition to a summary of States’ investment plans.
In addition to finalizing the the Vision 202020, the Jonathan Administration produced the 30-year National Integrated Infrastructure Master Plan (NIIMP) covering 2013-2043. This document which was approved by the Federal Executive Council (FEC) in 2014, is a mine of information on how to mobilize resources required to close the infrastructure deficit in Africa’s largest economy. Will the incoming administration fine-tune these two documents and work with them or throw the baby away with the bath-water? Time shall tell.
Weneso Orogun
