Nigeria has had several new beginnings in the last decade and a half – the return to civil rule in 1999 was celebrated as a new beginning; so was the 2003 commencement of Obasanjo’s second term with a reform cabinet and agenda and the eventual Paris Club Debt Write-off; the transition from Obasanjo to Yar’Adua, even though tainted with Obasanjo’s Third-Term Agenda and allegations of massive electoral fraud, was Nigeria’s first handover of power from a civilian leader to another; when Goodluck Jonathan took over in line with the constitution after Yar’Adua’s death, it was another new beginning and was regarded as a sign of robustness of our constitutional democracy. In 2011, President Jonathan’s electoral victory evoked a positive groundswell of hope until the celebratory air was shattered by the killing of over 800 people in post-election violence across Northern Nigeria and then the advent of terrorism and insecurity in the North-East.
As Nigeria inaugurated a new president, Muhammadu Buhari, and Vice-President Yemi Osinbajo on Friday, May 29, 2015, sentiments were positive, even euphoric, but these past examples reminded me that it was not the euphoria of the moment that was important, but what we do with it. The significance of the unprecedented defeat of an incumbent civilian president has of course been globally recognized and applauded, but except we seize and leverage the moment, the opportunity may soon dissipate! As Buhari closed his inaugural address, “We have an opportunity. Let us take it!”
Buhari started his speech with gratitude to God and recognized the determination of Nigerians and “strong support from friends abroad” before thanking ex-President Jonathan for his “statesmanship” in setting a positive precedent. It was right that contrary to the hubris of several in his party and even some petty online commentators, Buhari opted to commend the action of his predecessor. Then the new president uttered the significant but potentially troubling words, “I belong to everybody and I belong to nobody”, widely interpreted as a signal disclaimer of those who helped him into office, a position that could shatter the national coalition that brought him to office, with possible attendant instability. He also assured that fears that he would “go after” some unnamed persons after “coming back” to office were groundless. The context of return to office to which he referred suggests the reference was to persons who might have had a role in his 1985 exit from military rulership!
The speech took some steps into history, listing national heroes beyond the big four (Awo, Zik, Sardauna and Balewa) to also include Ladoke Akintola, Eyo Ita and others; referring to ancient Fulani, Kanem-Borno, Oyo, Benin and Opobo Empires and noting that “the blood of those great ancestors flow in our veins”, in his specific case those “ancestors” being “Shehu Othman Dan Fodio’s Caliphate”, promising to build on the ancestors’ legacies to “modernize and uplift Nigeria”.
In terms of policy content, the speech was perhaps understandably light and vague – recognition that resolving “Boko Haram” requires support from Chad, Niger and Cameroun”, an unclear decision to move the “Command and Control Centre” from Abuja to Maiduguri and a promise to rescue the “Chibok” girls; correctly listing significant immediate domestic challenges as insecurity, corruption, fuel and power shortages, unemployment while in the longer term promising to deal with public service, legislative and judicial reform; education, healthcare and infrastructure. But the speech was long on problem recognition and rhetoric, but so far short on solutions and specific policy proposals. What was clear is an intent to scrutinize state and local government finances and tackle corruption in those tiers of government (in addition I hope to federal fund leakages as 52 percent of national spending is at the federal level).
Alarm bells rang in the Niger-Delta as the president said “the amnesty programme in the Niger-Delta is due to end in December”, but he quickly re-assured that “government intends to invest heavily in the projects and programmes currently in place”, stressing his willingness to listen to grievances in the region. Buhari will need maturity and pragmatism in dealing with the Niger-Delta!
With regard to the power sector, I have been trying to read between the explicit lines in the address – Buhari seems to attribute the sector’s problems to “continuous tinkering with the structures of power supply and distribution”, a probable reference to the unbundling and privatization brought about by the Electric Power Sector Reform Act 2005 and former President Jonathan’s Power Sector Roadmap. If this is the president’s diagnosis, then it is a wrong one! The power sector reform is a positive policy, but outstanding issues around gas availability and pipeline sabotage, transmission, tariffs and new investments must be addressed. Buhari also repeated the erroneous information that $20 billion had been spent on the sector! Foluseke Somolu has authoritatively rebutted the notion that Obasanjo spent $16bn on the sector (the correct figure was closer to $5bn, he said!) but the bloated figures continue to be bandied around. I was happy to hear the reference to agriculture, solid minerals and SMEs, but again policy content is required in relation to that broad intent!
The president is right to note that economic management will be a serious challenge but I do not think the economy is in “deep trouble” provided we are willing to take the clear structural measures required. In my view, our economy is fundamentally sound, but with need for some structural reforms and sensible rather than unsustainable policies. Nigeria indeed has a “window of opportunity” but it is one that requires leadership, political will and sound policies.
Opeyemi Agbaje
