Major cities around the world could face worsening mobile network congestion by the end of the decade unless governments urgently release more mid-band spectrum for mobile services, the GSMA has warned in a new global study on the future of 6G connectivity.
In its Vision 2040: Spectrum for the Future of Mobile Connectivity report, the mobile industry body said current spectrum levels will be insufficient to support surging data demand, advanced digital services and the transition to next-generation 6G networks, which are expected to begin commercial deployment from 2030.
The GSMA’s analysis found that if mid-band spectrum availability remains at today’s levels of around 1GHz per country, cities accounting for more than half of the world’s urban population will be capacity-constrained by 2030.
To avoid congestion and a decline in user experience, the organisation said at least 2GHz of mid-band spectrum must be operational by the start of the 6G deployment cycle.
“Without early government planning, consumers could face poorer connectivity, businesses may struggle to adopt new technologies, and national digital economies could lose competitiveness in the global transition to 6G,” the GSMA said.
According to the study, next-generation 6G networks will require up to three times more mid-band spectrum than is typically available today. On average, countries will need between 2GHz and 3GHz of mid-band spectrum between 2035 and 2040, while higher-demand markets may require as much as 2.5GHz to 4GHz to meet capacity needs in dense urban areas.
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The warning comes as global mobile data traffic continues to surge. The GSMA projects that monthly mobile traffic could reach as high as 3,900 exabytes by 2040 under high-growth scenarios, driven by continued 5G adoption, a growing number of power users, and new 6G-enabled applications such as extended reality (XR), integrated sensing and autonomous systems.
Urban centres are expected to bear the brunt of the pressure. The report noted that around 83 per cent of global mobile traffic already occurs in urban areas, which account for just about five per cent of geographic territory. Traffic density in very dense urban zones is nine times higher than in other urban areas and nearly 700 times higher than in rural regions, making mid-band spectrum critical for maintaining service quality.
John Giusti, chief regulatory officer at the GSMA, said the findings highlight the scale of the challenge facing policymakers. “This study shows that the 6G era will require three times more mid-band spectrum than is available today. Satisfying these spectrum requirements will support robust and sustainable connectivity, deliver digital ambitions and help economies grow,” he said.
The report estimates that 6G will account for around five billion connections by 2040, representing roughly half of all mobile connections globally, while 4G and 5G will remain in use with about two billion and three billion connections respectively. Average monthly data consumption per user is expected to rise to between 140GB and 360GB by 2040.
To meet future demand, the GSMA identified several candidate mid-band frequencies under study for mobile use, including the 3.8–4.2GHz, 4.4–4.99GHz, upper 6GHz and 7.125–8.4GHz bands. However, the organisation cautioned that these bands have existing users, meaning long-term planning will be required to manage spectrum release, develop device ecosystems and achieve global harmonisation.
The GSMA said decisions taken in the next few years, particularly ahead of the World Radiocommunication Conference in 2027, will be critical in determining whether cities can support the data-intensive services of the 2030s, or face growing congestion and lost economic opportunity as the world moves into the 6G era.
