Nigeria’s chief executives remain optimistic that various government reforms are beginning to translate into tangible results, but they also caution against potential economic setbacks.
Subsidy removal has liberalised the petrol market, eliminating fuel queues and stimulating investments in the downstream sector.
Similarly, the removal of foreign exchange (FX) subsidies and liberalisation of the market have helped to stabilise the naira, restoring investor confidence and improving the nation’s foreign reserves.
As a result, ratings agency Fitch upgraded Nigeria’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to ‘B’ from ‘B-‘ with a stable outlook in April.
Fitch cited improved policy credibility and reduced short-term risks to macroeconomic stability due to recent policy reforms.
This was followed by Moody’s upgrade of Nigeria’s sovereign rating from Caa1 to B3, indicating progress in the nation’s fiscal and external positions.
However, the reforms have been painful for the people as it has raised inflation and spiked the cost- of-living crisis in Africa’s most populous nation.
According to the World Bank’s Poverty and Equity April 2025 Brief for Nigeria, rural poverty reached 76 percent in Nigeria this year – meaning that three in four rural dwellers are poor. The general poverty hit 46 percent in 2023 from 40 percent in 2018.
“The Nigerian outlook is now much better, thanks to reforms embarked upon by President Bola Tinubu,” said Ike Ibeabuchi, CEO of MD Services Limited.
“The naira has stabilised due to central bank-induced reforms and the revival of the petrol refining sector. There are hardly petrol queues now as the market now determines pricing,” he said.
“But the level of inflation-induced poverty is a risk for the economy. Rising poverty increases the rate of crime and endangers the lives and assets of everybody, including investors.”
He warned that unless the federal government begins to reduce the impact of its painful reforms through support for small businesses and the poor, the nation’s social risk level may rise.
At BusinessDay’s 13th CEO forum held in Lagos on Thursday, Tola Adeyemi, senior partner at KPMG Nigeria, said investors are beginning to scale as confidence grows, with sovereign credit ratings reflecting that optimism.
“From a responsiveness standpoint, data suggest early signs of recovery. Economic growth is trending upward; trade balances have improved; foreign exchange rates are stabilising, and access to forex has become more consistent,” he noted.
“But it’s not enough for one administration to push reforms,” he said. “We need laws, policies, and institutions that will protect and build on these changes across political cycles.”
He then said, “If you ask whether the reforms are yielding the right results, the honest answer is both yes and no—it really depends on who you’re speaking to. For the investor and business communities, there are signs of progress. But for the general population, the overwhelming response is still no.”
He cautioned that citizens must be clearly and repeatedly informed about what each reform aims to achieve, when benefits can be expected, and how progress is being measured.
Read also: How Nigerian CEOs turned economic volatility into opportunities
Sell of idle assets
Frank Aigbogun, publisher and CEO of BusinessDay, said Nigeria is already ‘turning the corner,’ citing growing stability in the market.
He however urged the government to improve fiscal discipline and sell off its idle assets estimated at N180 trillion to avoid a debt crisis.
“We want to see quick movement on the fiscal side, especially on the long-awaited asset sale. This will avoid piling debt for generations unborn. I don’t see how it’s more attractive to take on more debts than to sell some of the assets we see around Nigeria,” BusinessDay’s chief said.
Macroeconomic improvement
Kofo Akinkugbe, founder/CEO, Secure ID Limited, said that Nigerian entrepreneurs must understand market trends, identify the opportunity, and improve business diversification in order to remain strong in Nigeria’s economy.
But she emphasised the need for authorities to ensure Nigeria achieves macroeconomic stability to encourage business growth and sustainability.
In a separate interview, Paul Alaje, senior economist and partner at SPM Professionals, said: “While significant strides have been made in economic reforms, the path forward requires careful management of macroeconomic policies and a commitment to inclusive growth.”
Fresh oil sector reforms needed
Tony Attah, CEO of Renaissance Africa Energy, said while the passage of the Petroleum Industry Bill (PIA) after two decades of delay was commendable, the act has become ‘outdated on arrival.’
He stressed the need for a comprehensive review that considers recent technological advancements, including artificial intelligence (AI), digitalisation, and the energy transition.
The PIA 2021 was signed into law by the former President of Nigeria, Muhammadu Buhari, on August 16, 2021.
This act is a significant piece of legislation aimed at reforming Nigeria’s oil and gas industry. It replaces the older Petroleum Act of 1969 and introduces a new legal, governance, regulatory, and fiscal framework.
The PIA aims to modernise the industry, attract investment, and promote sustainable development.
“The Act doesn’t take cognisance of digitalisation, and it doesn’t recognise AI. In today’s world, you can’t survive without AI,” Attah said. “We need to revise the PIA to reflect current realities.”
Another major recommendation was the urgent need for the PIA to provide clear guidelines on securing oil and gas infrastructure, particularly pipelines.
Social protection urgent
Samuel Sule, CEO of Renaissance Capital Africa, recently told BusinessDay that Nigeria needs the reforms to ensure a balanced economy, but he stressed the importance of social protection for vulnerable Nigerians.
“A non-reversal of reforms while deliberately focusing on social protections, investment in infrastructure, government efficiency and a focus on economic stability (including reduced inflation) should have significant benefits in the medium term,” the Lagos-based investment bank chief said.
Export reforms
Experts and CEOs say the nation’s reforms are incomplete without export revival. They say the devaluation of the naira is supposed to drive exports but noted that that is not happening,
In the first quarter (Q1) of 2025, exports accounted for over 57 percent of total trade, and just over eight percent of those exports were agricultural goods worth N1.7 trillion – the most Nigeria has made in a single quarter from them.
Yet, a closer look shows that the bulk of these were in their raw form at the point of export, leading to missed opportunities for job creation and higher export earnings.
Between January and March, raw commodities accounted for over 92 percent of total agricultural exports, while processed goods made up just over seven percent.
Cocoa remained the export champion. However, despite being the fourth largest cocoa producer, Nigeria still processes less than 13 percent of its cocoa locally, spending millions to buy back its derivatives from other cocoa producers.
In 2023, the country spent $33.94 million to import cocoa powder, according to the World Bank, 90 percent of which came from neighboring Ghana, another cocoa producer.
“If we take them product by product and look at what we are getting from the raw produce, then look at what they are getting after they have been processed, look at the jobs that they create, if we quantify all that, it’s a lot of money,” Obiora Madu, director general of the African Centre for Supply Chain, told BusinessDay said in a separate interview, noting that each time Nigeria exports raw produce, it loses jobs.
“The jobs that ought to be done here, you are sending them somewhere else to be done. So, the nations that import those raw resources gain jobs,” he said.
According to Ude Malinze, CEO of Export Cricket, “Nigeria’s reforms cannot be complete without taking care of the supply side of the FX. Export of non-oil products will take care of that side. If we don’t take it seriously- like we do now- we may come back to the challenge of 2016-2023, when we were just relying on prayers, rather than policies, to steer the economy.”
