Economists and analysts have divergent views on President Bola Tinubu’s performance in the past two years. Tinubu became the nation’s president on May 20, 2023, marking his ascendancy into the highest office in the land with subsidy and foreign exchange (FX) reforms.
The gross domestic product (GDP) growth stood at 3.4 percent in 2024, the fastest in three years. The overall impact of both growth and reforms on households, businesses and the state has been mixed and, at times, painful. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), “Gains have yet to benefit all Nigerians as poverty and food insecurity remain high.”
Here are 10 charts that provide clearer pictures on the president’s performance in two years.
Household struggle: food inflation and rising poverty
The clearest pain point for Nigerian households has been food. The average food inflation index surged by over 40 percent between May 2023 and April 2025. The spike was particularly sharp from late 2023 to mid-2024, driven by subsidy removal, FX unification, and poor agricultural output linked to insecurity and logistics constraints.
For context, 100kg of white garri rose from N43,419.22 in May 2023 to N82,732.10 in April 2025—a 90.5 percent jump. According to the World Bank market survey data analysed, a 50kg bag of imported rice jumped 109 percent, from N36,449.11 to N76,018.57 over the period.
Meanwhile, poverty has worsened. According to estimates by the IMF, the number of poor Nigerians increased by 24 percent. Reforms have not yet translated into tangible relief for the average household.
Price pressures from FX market
The exchange rate has been a major transmission channel for inflation. According to Taiwo Oyedele, chairman of the Presidential Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms Committee, “Foreign exchange pass-through is the biggest factor by a mile” in driving the 2024’s inflation. Analysts from the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) echoed this, noting that FX volatility has been a core inflationary force since 2019.
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Interest rates and cost of credit
In response to inflationary pressures, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) raised the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) by a total of 900 basis points (nine percentage points) since Tinubu assumed office. Inflation was rebased in 2025, dropping from 34.8 percent in December 2024 to 24.48 percent in January 2025. Similarly, the interest rate hikes have made borrowing more expensive for households and firms alike.
Business squeeze: manufacturers under pressure
High borrowing costs, exchange rate instability, and inflation have created tough conditions for firms. Manufacturers and small businesses have struggled with rising input costs and reduced access to affordable credit, eroding profitability and discouraging expansion.
Oil production recovery
Despite the broader challenges, Nigeria’s oil output has seen a modest recovery. Crude oil production rose from 1.19 million barrels per day (mbpd) in May 2023 to 1.49 mbpd in April 2025—a 25 percent increase. Given that oil still accounts for over 75 percent of Nigeria’s exports, according to the Nigeria Bureau of Statistics (NBS), this growth is a crucial source of fiscal breathing space.
Revenue mobilisation improves
Fiscal revenue collection has improved under Tinubu’s administration. The World Bank, in its May 2025 Nigeria Development Update (NDU), reported that government revenue as a percentage of GDP increased from 8.8 percent in 2023 to 13.3 percent in 2024. This significant leap is attributed to the removal of the implicit foreign exchange subsidy, improved tax administration, increased remittances from Federal Government-Owned Enterprises (FGOEs) and Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs), and higher Internally Generated Revenue (IGR) at the state level.
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FAAC allocation surges but inflation erodes value
The monthly Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) disbursements rose from N976 billion in May 2023 to N1.59 trillion in March 2025—an increase of 61.6 percent. However, with general inflation still high, the real value of this windfall is diminished, limiting its developmental impact at the subnational level.
Soaring public debt
The administration’s increased borrowing has deepened Nigeria’s debt profile. According to the Debt Management Office (DMO). Public debt rose from N78.21 trillion in July 2023 to N144 trillion in December 2024. This includes an external debt rise from N29.90 trillion to N62.92 trillion, and domestic debt from N48.31 trillion to N70.41 trillion. The government submitted additional N39 trillion loan request at the National Assembly on Tuesday but noted that the submitted external borrowing rolling plan is primarily aimed at securing concessional loans from multilateral development partners, rather than increasing commercial debt exposure.
While Nigeria successfully repaid the $3.4 billion IMF loan from the COVID-19 era, concerns over debt sustainability persist.
FX reserves rebound
One bright spot is the central bank’s reserve position. Net foreign exchange reserves surged from just $4 billion in 2023 to $23 billion in 2024, reflecting reforms in currency management, improved oil receipts, and increased investor confidence.
Economic growth: a bright spot
Despite the turbulence, Nigeria’s economy recorded a 3.4 percent growth rate in 2024, the fastest in three years. However, the benefits of this growth remain unequally distributed, with many Nigerians yet to feel the impact, according to economists.
Two years in, President Tinubu’s reform-driven administration has altered the trajectory of Nigeria’s economy in profound ways. But for many households and firms, the short-term costs have outweighed the benefits. While macroeconomic indicators like growth, reserves, and revenue mobilisation are improving, the lived experience—rising food prices, debt concerns, and limited access to credit—paints a sobering picture.
These 10 charts are not just statistics but the pulse of a country in transition, hopeful yet uneasy.
