Oil sector drives Nigeria’s GDP growth to 4-year high

Nigeria’s real GDP grew by 4.23 per cent in the second quarter of 2025, its highest quarterly growth rate since Q2 2021, driven largely by a sharp rebound in the oil sector. This marks a 110-basis point increase from the 3.13 per cent recorded in Q1 2025 and a 75-basis point rise compared to the 3.4 per cent growth in the same period of 2024.

The oil sector led the charge, recording a massive 20 per cent year-on-year growth in Q2 2025, its strongest performance in years, up from just 1.87 per cent in Q1. This surge is attributed to a boost in crude oil production, with Nigeria pumping an average of 1.68 million barrels per day during the quarter. That figure is significantly higher than the 1.41 million barrels per day produced in Q2 2024 and above the 1.62 million barrels per day recorded in Q1 2025.

 

The industry sector, buoyed by oil, delivered a strong performance overall, expanding by 7.45 per cent in Q2 2025, a sharp rise from the 3.72 per cent recorded in the same period a year earlier. Industry also accounted for a larger share of GDP at 17.31 per cent, up from 16.79 per cent in Q2 2024, though it dipped from Q1’s 19.18 per cent on a quarter-on-quarter basis.

Meanwhile, the agriculture sector grew by 2.82 per cent in Q2 2025, slightly above the 2.60 per cent in the same quarter of 2024. The services sector also saw a modest uptick, growing by 3.9 per cent compared to 3.83 per cent a year earlier.

Despite the remarkable recovery in output, the oil sector’s direct contribution to GDP remained relatively modest at 4.05 per cent in Q2 2025, slightly higher than the 3.97 per cent posted in Q1. Nonetheless, the sector’s strong rebound was a key driver behind Nigeria’s best quarterly GDP performance in four years.