Nigeria is sitting on a paradox. In the first half of 2025, the country posted Africa’s largest trade surplus, a positive balance of $8.4 billion. On paper, this positions Nigeria as the continent’s trade powerhouse, ahead of Ghana and South Africa. Yet, for a country that exports more than it imports, there is little evidence that this success has translated into stronger economic fundamentals. The exchange rate has barely moved, foreign investment remains cautious, and some of its peers dwarf trade volumes. So, what does it really mean to lead Africa in trade surplus?
A leaderboard with hidden cracks
Between January and June 2025, Nigeria exported goods worth approximately N43.3 trillion, equivalent to $28.9 billion, while imports totalled N30.7 trillion, or $20.5 billion. The result was a net trade position unmatched across Africa. Ghana followed with a surplus of $5.7 billion, and South Africa came third with $4.6 billion.
The headline figures may look impressive, but they also reveal Nigeria’s limits. Ghana, with a far smaller economy, is narrowing the gap. South Africa, meanwhile, trades at a scale Nigeria cannot match, exporting $57 billion and importing $52.4 billion, volumes that dwarf Nigeria’s total trade of $49.4 billion.
Even more telling are the performances of other African giants. Egypt ended the period with a $19.48 billion deficit, Morocco with $17.81 billion, and Kenya with $6.1 billion in the red. Algeria reported a $710 million deficit with partial data. Among the ten largest economies in Africa, only four, Nigeria, Ghana, South Africa, and Angola, stayed in surplus. Ethiopia did not even publish trade statistics. Nigeria may have topped the leaderboard, but the numbers hint at a deeper challenge: size does not necessarily mean strength.
When surplus means little
In many countries, a healthy trade surplus strengthens the currency. But Nigeria is different. For much of 2025, the Naira has stayed flat, averaging N1550 to the USD. The numbers suggest that Nigeria’s foreign trade balance is not the lever driving its exchange rate. Rather, the relationship runs the other way, with exchange rate volatility shaping trade, not trade dictating currency performance.
Studies reinforce this view. Economists Victor Ijirshar, Isa Okpe, and Jerome Andohol found that in Nigeria, Naira depreciation worsens the trade balance in the short run before improving it over time as imports shrink. This was evident in 2023 when the Naira lost 45 percent of its value within a month, and imports tumbled in the quarters that followed.
Ghana provides a useful counterpoint. Its $5.7 billion surplus in H1 2025 came alongside a remarkable 42 percent appreciation of the Cedi, showing how exchange rate shifts can dramatically shape trade outcomes. In 2022, the reverse happened: a $700 million deficit coincided with a 50 percent currency collapse. Egypt adds another twist, a $19.48 billion deficit in the first half of 2025, yet its currency gained 2 percent. The pattern is clear: exchange rate dynamics across Africa often defy the neat textbook link to trade balance.
The anatomy of Nigeria’s trade
If the currency story is uninspiring, the details of Nigeria’s trade reveal a slow but noticeable shift. Oil still dominates. Crude exports accounted for $16.6 billion in the first half, nearly 58 percent of total export earnings. Yet, compared with 2024 when crude made up 78 percent of exports, Nigeria is quietly diversifying.
Agricultural goods generated $1.97 billion, up from $1.49 billion a year earlier, a 33 percent increase. Non-oil exports climbed to $4.14 billion, about 14 percent of total export earnings, with urea fetching $410.5 million and cashew nuts bringing in $235 million. These are still small numbers compared to oil, but they show signs of resilience.
Imports tell their own story of dependence and vulnerability. Refined petroleum products cost Nigeria $2.7 billion, roughly a quarter of all imports, underscoring the irony of an oil producer that cannot refine enough for its own consumption. Durum wheat was another burden, valued at N503 billion within six months.
South Africa’s model of scale
By contrast, South Africa’s trade profile reflects a broader and more sophisticated base. In H1 2025, the country earned $14.2 billion from mineral products like aluminium, platinum, and gold, and another $10.7 billion from precious metals. It exported $7.9 billion worth of vehicles, aircraft, and vessels, alongside $4 billion in heavy machinery. The range is wider, the volumes are larger, and the dependence on a single commodity is lower. Imports also mirror industrial activity, with nearly $9.8 billion in mineral products purchased to feed its factories and value chains.
South Africa’s case highlights Nigeria’s dilemma. Nigeria’s surplus exists, but it is not built on economic complexity or global competitiveness. It rests on crude oil, a commodity vulnerable to price shocks, policy missteps, and global energy shifts.
The bigger picture: competitiveness and integration
One metric that reveals much about Nigeria’s position is the trade-to-GDP ratio, a measure of how integrated an economy is with the rest of the world. Nigeria’s figure stood at 38 percent in Q1 2025, down from 54 percent in Q1 2024. Nigeria is exporting, but it is not trading enough relative to the size of its economy.
Even with a year-on-year increase in trade value, $49.37 billion in H1 2025 compared with $47.43 billion in H1 2024, the structure of Nigeria’s trade is changing. Refined petroleum product imports fell 12 percent, from $5.76 billion in H1 2024 to $5.07 billion in H1 2025. Crude oil’s share of exports dropped from nearly 78 percent to 57.5 percent. While falling oil prices played a role, non-oil exports and refined product exports are also rising. These shifts are subtle, but they matter. They suggest that Nigeria’s trade is no longer entirely captive to oil markets.
So what does Nigeria’s surplus really mean?
Nigeria may lead Africa in trade surplus, but this leadership does not automatically translate into economic strength. The figures expose both progress and fragility. The country is slowly diversifying, but not at a scale that rivals South Africa’s complexity or even Ghana’s agility. Its currency remains insulated from trade success, and its overall trade volumes lag regional peers.
The lesson is that surplus is not an end in itself. What matters is the quality of trade, the range of goods exported, the industries supported, and the level of integration with global value chains. For Nigeria, the real challenge is not just maintaining a surplus but turning that surplus into a foundation for industrial strength, competitiveness, and growth. Until then, being Africa’s surplus leader may remain more a statistical triumph than an economic transformation.
